America’s Hormuz Success Has Yet to Become a Strategic Victory The fact that Iran is losing some of its ability to control and disrupt the Strait of Hormuz does not mean that the United States has established full control over the waterway. Ultimately, oil is a physical commodity: either enough of it reaches the global market or it does not. The fact that oil prices remain so high suggests that Washington’s significant operational achievements in the Strait have not yet translated into the strategic and economic outcome it needs. There are simply too many additional variables. Insurance premiums remain extremely high, tanker availability is constrained, commercial shipping continues to face substantial risks, and maintaining the American military presence required to keep significant volumes of oil moving through the Strait comes at an enormous financial and operational cost. This raises an equally important question of sustainability. The United States may be able to maintain this level of military protection today, but for how long, and at what cost? That question becomes even more important as Tehran once again intensifies its efforts to disrupt traffic through the Strait. So there should be no minimizing the American operational achievement. Iran’s strategy in Hormuz has been significantly weakened, and Tehran’s ability to use the Strait as leverage has clearly been challenged. But operational success should not be confused with strategic victory. The real test is whether Washington can turn its military advantage into a durable situation in which oil flows normally, insurance and transportation costs decline, the extraordinary U.S. military deployment can be reduced, and Iran effectively loses Hormuz as a tool of strategic coercion. We are not there yet. For now, neither side has full control of the Strait. Iran’s leverage has been substantially weakened, but Washington has not eliminated it. And a strategy that depends indefinitely on an extraordinarily expensive American military presence in the Gulf is not, by itself, a sustainable long-term solution. #iran