Mostly financial markets and AI content. Top-down beats bottom-up.
Czech Republic
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So is the Petrodollar system dead? Another L for Trump, and this is a big one. They will lose significant bid for $.
BREAKING: The U.S. is now preparing to completely abandon Gulf countries, as Trump envoy Tom Barrack directly warns Gulf allies that Washington can no longer guarantee their security indefinitely, telling regional officials in Doha that they must take responsibility for their own defense, signalling the end of the U.S. security umbrella in the Middle East, per the Wall Street Journal.
Barrack said the 80-year-old U.S. security-for-oil arrangement is no longer sustainable, pointing to regional defense partnerships as the way forward. The warning comes as Gulf states face Iranian strikes on U.S. military infrastructure and growing uncertainty over Washington’s future military commitment to the region.
Many think the recent inflation rebound is purely energy-driven. But weather and drought matter too.
US winter wheat conditions are exceptionally poor this year, with just 26% rated good/excellent vs. a 44% 5-year average.
Expect more upward pressure on food prices.
STEG has already rolled over. Historically LTEG tends to follow 4-7 months later, often around the time stocks start correcting.
Forward earnings expectations are slowly starting to crack. The market just hasn't gotten the memo yet.
Jakubko retweeted
Technical moats are mostly over at this point. If you’re building something that is meant to be durable, the only moats now are:
• Proprietary data
• Network effects
• A physical component
Anyone remember this? It was right at the bottom for yields. Never ever listen to the big guys. They are in the business of selling first and foremost.
Take notes. This will happen to every single crypto project on DefiLlama that has insufficient revenue.
Blast will be shutting down.
We launched Blast with the goal of building a self-sustaining chain for users and developers. Unfortunately, the economics of operating the chain no longer make sense: the ongoing costs of maintaining Blast exceed the revenue generated by the L2, and we do not see a credible path to making the chain economically sustainable.
As a result, we've made the difficult decision to wind Blast down.
We're sorry to the users and developers who believed in Blast, built on it, and supported the ecosystem. Our priority now is making the shutdown as smooth and safe as possible.
We're asking all users to withdraw their assets from Blast to Ethereum mainnet, including any balances held in the Blast PWA.
To make this easier, we will be reducing the withdrawal delay to 24 hours.
As part of the shutdown process, we'll first begin withdrawing Blast's Lido assets. This process is expected to take approximately one week. During this period, withdrawals will temporarily be unavailable, even after the withdrawal delay is reduced to 24 hours.
Once that process is complete, withdrawals will resume with the new 24-hour delay.
Users will have until October 26, 2026 to withdraw through the normal Blast interface.
After October 26, assets will remain withdrawable, but users will need to interact directly with the Blast bridge contracts on Ethereum L1. We'll publish detailed instructions before then.
We strongly encourage everyone to withdraw their assets to Ethereum mainnet before October 26.
We have the worse energy crisis in decades, DXY rising alongside rates, yields around 5% and rising and people in crypto think we're starting a bullmarket. You can't make this up. The market will sober everyone.
Damage to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is worse than first reported, with three pumping stations hit. Repairs could take 5-6 weeks, threatening a route that had been moving 4-5M bpd around Hormuz. #Oil #SaudiArabia #Hormuz #EnergySecurity
oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oi…
Clarity Act procedural cloture vote Sep 15. FOMC meeting Sep 16. The odds right now are very unfavorable for risk assets. If the Fed indeed hikes and the Clarity Act doesn't go through, crypto has topped.
Now 60% odds of rate hike in 11 days. A lot of things can still change, but this meeting is for sure an important one.
Druckenmiller – a breath of fresh air
Stanley Druckenmiller renders an unfavorable opinion of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of buybacks to defend against higher yields in a market that is functioning normally.
"I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise: Markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury yield is the most important price in the world. It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left."
"Every basis point of artificial yield suppression is a subsidy to procrastination."
"Return buybacks to their stated purpose: small, scheduled, off-the-run liquidity operations announced at quarterly refundings, never off-cycle responses to yield levels. Term out the debt honestly and pay the price the market sets."
"If the 30-year must trade at 5.5% to clear, that isn’t a crisis. It is an invoice. Then do the only thing that durably lowers long-term yields: address the primary deficit."
wsj.com/opinion/let-the-bond…
When these companies go public, it will be funny to see their actual balance sheet numbers
I want to be bullish on risk assets, but things like this still holds me back. I think the Hormuz blowup is yet to play out.
BREAKING: Kpler's verified data directly contradicts Axios' report that 40 tankers carrying 16 million barrels exited the Strait of Hormuz on Friday night — with Kpler recording zero west-to-east tanker crossings and zero barrels exiting the Strait that day.
Axios' Barak Ravid reported, citing three U.S. officials, that 40 tankers transited the southern deep channel on Friday night, moving 16 million barrels of oil out of the Gulf. But Kpler's vessel-tracking data shows no commercial vessel movements in either direction through the Strait on Friday, with traffic remaining near a standstill for much of the week.
The gap between Washington's claims and independently observable traffic is enormous. U.S. officials say 16 million barrels moved. Kpler says zero. The administration is claiming victory — but the data says otherwise.
