My word's but a whisper, your deafness a shout. It was cold and it rained and I felt like an actor.
High in the Custerdome, WI
Joined March 2020
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I really like this thing everyone is doing, but I hated choosing just 9. Had to go back to HS/college years for some of them. There were many others that belong on this list as well.
My theory: this is part of Trump’s grand strategy to manufacture a predicate for canceling the mid-term elections, but he no longer has the ability to articulate his own whacked-out galaxy brain theory, so it comes out like this.
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
Pro poker player here. I assess risk for a living in situations where outcomes are unknown.
For example, when I call a bet from my opponent, I can't know for certain what two cards they're holding.
The best I can do is think through all the possibilities, assess my risk and reward, then place my bets accordingly.
I've refined this process over millions of hands of poker and 20+ years at the table.
I use a simple to follow risk/reward framework, which can easily be applied to real world scenarios.
For example, like whether to build superhuman AI (AGI) that could help us achieve immortality or end humanity.
How do we decide whether it's worth the risk when we have no clue what the outcome will be?
Well, there's a principle in poker called "asymmetry".
It describes situations where the outcomes are unequal.
For example, you enter a poker tournament for $10,000 where the first place prize is $10M.
Worst case you lose $10K, best case you 1,000x your investment.
It's a great risk/reward and a classic "asymmetric opportunity" that poker pros dream of.
But the knife cuts both ways. There are plenty of situations where the asymmetry is to the downside.
Lots of risk, low reward. Pros try to avoid those.
The most important principle in bankroll management is that you never take a bet you can't afford to lose.
Even if the potential upside is great, a pro never risks it all on one hand, one game, or one tournament, because there is simply too much variance, luck and factors beyond their control.
Too many unknowns.
At a certain point, protecting existing capital is more important than gaining additional capital, because if go broke you not only lose all your money, but all of your future earning potential too.
Arguably the most important and under rated aspect of being a poker pro is managing risk well enough to simply stay in the game.
As I learned the hard way after round tripping a million dollar bankroll before I turned 21, you build up slowly, but can go broke quickly.
This bring us to AI, which is really just a classic hand of poker.
There's massive upside - solving aging, curing all disease, advancing human knowledge, becoming interstellar, etc.
There's also cataclysmic downside – like humans going extinct if this goes haywire.
Thinking over both the risk and reward, it's clear the asymmetry of building superhuman AI is to the downside.
My thesis is simple: no future gain in productivity is worth the risk of ending civilization.
The bulls argue that "the probability is low", but that fails to acknowledge that not all risk is created equal.
The reason it's not worth playing Russian roulette – even if the payoff is high – is because the potential gain isn't worth dying for.
That's true even if the probability of dying is low.
Accelerating civilization to superhuman AI while failing to solve the alignment problem is akin to playing Russian roulette with humanity.
Naturally, this is dumb and should be avoided.
We should continue progressing, of course, but only so long as we don't take on risks we can't afford.
We can literally "go broke" (extinct) in one fell swoop if superhuman AI isn't architected carefully.
One thing poker teaches you is that "bad beats" ( improbable hands that don't go your way) actually happen more often that you'd first expect.
Sometimes there's only one card in the deck that can help your opponent, and sure enough, it comes at the end and you lose all of your chips.
The only reason pros survive is because they manage risk and capital in such a way that they can continue playing the game.
Superhuman AI, if misaligned, is like putting all your chips on the table and risking them in one hand of poker.
It doesn't matter if the odds are favorable. If luck doesn't go our way, we lose everything.
Once we're extinct, we can't play anymore. As I'm sure you'd agree, that's not a great outcome.
We don't get another buy-in at the table, or a second shot at this. As we say in poker, we're all-in!
I hope my poker lens helps clarify the situation in laymens terms.
TLDR; Even though the probability of catastrophe due to AGI may be low, we must first defend against unaffordable risks, and make progress second.
This is arguably the most pressing issue of our time. If this resonates, please share for awarness.
If anyone working in AI at @AnthropicAI, @OpenAI or elsewhere would like to discuss further, I'm happy to help in any way I can - feel free to DM.
As we say in poker when the stakes are high and we're praying to win, "onetime!"
The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt. If anything, many executives and senior researchers will couch their phrasing in the press to sound sensible - but I hear the same people express fear privately. No other human activity poses this level of danger.
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
This is Tennessee Lt. Gov. Randy McNally. While Tennessee Republicans were passing a wave of anti-LGBTQ legislation, McNally was repeatedly liking and leaving flirtatious comments on sexually suggestive Instagram posts from a young gay man.
Quite a portrait of today’s Republican Party.
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
There’s never been a more perfect cover of Steely Dan.
youtu.be/P_8aZZ9d_EA?is=BWKH…
Ok Friday, you've been on my mind all week. Let's get after it!
youtu.be/FOr-lvn-tn8?si=cvxJ…
This fraud is out there proving he is an oppo operation with one purpose--to damage the Dem party by pushing extreme positions and candidates. The proof? He knows perfectly well the primary and general elections have different electorates.
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
Canada’s boreal forest — the source of much of the wildfire smoke drifting into the U.S. — isn’t like our managed forests in the lower 48.
It’s the largest intact forest ecosystem on Earth: roughly 1.3 billion acres (about 78 times larger than Alaska’s Tongass, our biggest national forest, and 7 times larger than all 154 U.S. National Forests combined). It stretches in an almost continuous belt from the Yukon to Newfoundland.
Why can’t they just do controlled burns like we do here?
Because most of it is remote, roadless wilderness.
• Less than 9% of Canada’s population lives in the boreal region.
• Less than 1% of the forest itself is developed.
• Vast areas have no roads and are only accessible by aircraft or winter roads.
You can’t send crews in to do prescribed burns across a billion+ acres of inaccessible terrain the way we can in populated areas near roads and communities in the U.S. Wildfire has been nature’s primary management tool in these ecosystems for thousands of years.
Smoke reaching the Northeast isn’t new either. It happened in 1950, 1988, 1995, 2002, 2017, 2021, 2023, 2025, and now 2026. Weather (especially upper-level wind patterns) determines where the smoke goes, not just where the fires are burning.
Blaming Canada’s government for “not controlling” these fires is political theater. The scale and inaccessibility make large-scale suppression or prevention across that wilderness fundamentally different — and in many places, practically impossible — from managing forests near U.S. population centers.
Nature runs that forest. Politicians don’t. Let’s stop pretending otherwise.
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
The longer I live, the more I see and hear, the better I understand how fragile human destiny truly is. Today you are fed, content, and sleeping on your own sofa, while ahead of you wait difficult times that you don't even suspect, yet they are already waiting for you… We Ukrainians have traveled a long road, a specific stretch of these hard times, and one can only guess where the end is and what it will be for each of us.
Before the war, I often heard that everything in life is in our own hands, and that we are the masters of our fate. But what do you tell yourself when you are forced to evacuate your home? When your hands are powerless to influence anything, except to pack your belongings and leave the place where you lived, the place where you had hoped to grow old? Old age itself is a wretched phase of life. Right now, I can only judge it by the stories of those elderly Ukrainians who speak of how quickly life has flown by-how in their hearts they are still eighteen, even if their bodies are worn out by time.
Evacuation… It is very rare to see posts like this, or the faces of those people on Twitter/X, who are leaving their homes against their will, driven by external circumstances-when the fighting is just too close, when the russian is just too close.
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
Statement from Annie Farmer on meeting with Todd Blanche:
"After meeting with Todd Blanche, I feel even more confident in urging senators to vote against his confirmation as the United States' Attorney General.
"I found him abrasive, condescending, and intentionally noncommittal to survivors — a marked contrast to his public testimony during his confirmation hearing.
"While quick to point to the failures of previous administrations, he refused to take accountability for mistakes made under his own leadership. Specifically, he would not commit to an inquiry into why my sister Maria Farmer's 1996 report went uninvestigated; he refused to release documents related to internal discussions about charging Epstein that would provide important clarification about previous errors, and his explanations for his nine-hour interview with Ghislaine Maxwell and her subsequent transfer to a less secure facility were wholly dissatisfactory and contrived.
"His evasiveness felt like a deliberate attempt to claim the Attorney General's office is powerless in this matter. By passing the buck once again, he is leaving survivors trapped in the same endless loop of searching for answers and receiving none."
An incredible level of grace during an unimaginably horrific medical episode with life-changing consequences. Prayers up to Matt and his loved ones.
A quick update: The surgery to remove my left arm was successful with hopes of an eventual prosthetic replacement. Similarly, the femur and patella surgeries were also successful and the fantastic surgery team was able to save my left leg.
To best focus on my healing and recovery, I’m stepping away indefinitely and will be placed on leave from ESPN. Thank you to all for the prayers and thoughts; please keep them coming.
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
This might be our last 4th of July as a free nation if Democrats take back power in this country.
We can’t let the communists win.
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
Putting the word out to any international fans that will be attending the July 5 match at MetLife. If you are renting an Airbnb & want to experience an authentic tailgate I will come to you! I will pick up all food costs in exchange for a charitable donation to a local NJ charity of your choice. If interested, please reach out 😁
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
Lots of people sticking up for teachers. I’m not talking about your local high school teachers. My mom was a teacher. I’m talking academia. Professors, administrators, deans etc. People who get a million degrees and but never work in real world. They suck
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
On April 12, 1945, Dwight Eisenhower walked into Ohrdruf and threw up.
It was the first Nazi camp liberated by American forces, a subcamp of Buchenwald in central Germany. Patton, who'd seen everything a soldier could see, stepped behind a shed and was sick. Eisenhower made himself look at all of it. The bodies stacked like cordwood. The shed where the SS had stored corpses with lime. The pyre of railroad ties where they'd tried to burn the evidence before they ran.
He walked the entire camp.
Then he went back to his headquarters and started sending cables.
One went to George Marshall in Washington. Eisenhower wanted a delegation of congressmen flown to Germany immediately. He wanted editors and publishers from the major American newspapers brought over too. He wanted them on the ground, inside the camps, while the bodies were still there.
His reasoning was blunt. He'd seen propaganda work in the last war and he knew what was coming. "I made the visit deliberately," he wrote, "in order to be in a position to give first hand evidence of these things if ever, in the future, there develops a tendency to charge these allegations merely to propaganda."
In private he put it harder. He wanted witnesses so that no "son of a bitch" could ever stand up and claim it never happened.
Marshall got the request to the White House. Within days, a congressional delegation was in the air. Newspaper editors followed. Eisenhower took them through Ohrdruf and Buchenwald himself, walking them past the same sights he'd forced himself to see.
He ordered Signal Corps photographers and film crews into every camp the Army reached. Shoot everything, he told them. Every body, every barrack, every survivor, every oven. He wanted the footage filed, catalogued, and preserved. He ordered nearby German civilians marched through the camps so they could see what had been done in their name. The mayor of Ohrdruf and his wife were brought through on April 14. They went home and hanged themselves.
The photographs and reels piled up in Army archives. They ran in Life and on newsreels in theaters across America. They were entered as evidence at Nuremberg.
Eisenhower kept some of the prints in his own files for the rest of his life.
He'd told the photographers to keep shooting. They did.
© People of the Past
#archaeohistories
REGNAD KCIN🟧 🇪🇪🇺🇦🇺🇸 retweeted
I read all 277 pages of SpaceX's IPO filing so you don't have to.
Losses up 700%. Revenue decelerating. 107x price-to-sales multiple.
It's a trainwreck. Full breakdown below 👇
