@ericlonners

Supercharge Me: Net Zero Faster https://xitter.cf/t.co/gqKMksqApa

 author, macro HF, my views
voxeu.org/article/dual-interest-rates-give-central-banks-limitless-fire-power
Joined April 2012
  • Tweets24.5K
  • Following1.1K
  • Followers9.7K
619Media
Substack launched - is the bond market ad hoc? @davidmcw substack.com/@ericlonergan91…
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Where has all the government debt just gone?
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A reminder of the Dalio fallacy.
Eric Lonergan
@ericlonnersOct 5
What is going on in bond markets? ericlonergan915540.substack.… @RobinWigg @RayDalio
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Eric Lonergan retweeted
Eric Lonergan
@ericlonnersOct 5
What is going on in bond markets? ericlonergan915540.substack.… @RobinWigg @RayDalio
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Eric Lonergan retweeted
Sander Tordoir
@SanderTordoirOct 13
Excited to publish new work, with the colleagues from Kiel. As the EU, France and Germany embark on building a diversification tool, they’ll run into a deep but solvable institutional problem. The bloc lacks an economic security competence. kielinstitut.de/media/news/c…

China Shock 2.0: Europe's trade policy is missing the strategic question

Ahead of the European Council on 15–16 October, Brussels, Paris and Berlin are discussing faster trade defense, buy-European rules and a new diversification instrument as answers to the "China Shock...

kielinstitut.de
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Succeeding everywhere, other than balance sheets ... which is arithmetic.
Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwartOct 8
THE REAL IMPLICATION OF THE AI MATH BREAKTHROUGHS I wrote about an element of AI that needs to get more discussion. The best public models will always be far behind what the labs can work with internally. Think about what this means for intelligence-intensive industries.
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The FX market doesn't believe in "broken Britain": Yen to the pound. Pundits should have PnLs.
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How much of it comes back to ASML?
Izabella Kaminska
@izakaminskaOct 7
Apollo's daily analysis is so good. Today, @huwsteenis gives us some food for thought on the rise of European-funded hyperscaler credit. As he notes: Hyperscalers have raised $48 billion in bonds in European currencies this year, which is already more than triple the entire amount of 2025. This is spread across €27 billion, £13 billion and CHF7.5 billion. Hyperscalers now account for 3% of euro IG issuance, 10% of sterling IG issuance and 22% of Swiss franc IG issuance this year, compared with 8% of US IG corporate issuance, see the first chart below. Which means EUROPE IS INCREASINGLY FINANCING HYPERSCALER AI ROLLOUT:
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Eric Lonergan retweeted
Izabella Kaminska
@izakaminskaOct 7
Apollo's daily analysis is so good. Today, @huwsteenis gives us some food for thought on the rise of European-funded hyperscaler credit. As he notes: Hyperscalers have raised $48 billion in bonds in European currencies this year, which is already more than triple the entire amount of 2025. This is spread across €27 billion, £13 billion and CHF7.5 billion. Hyperscalers now account for 3% of euro IG issuance, 10% of sterling IG issuance and 22% of Swiss franc IG issuance this year, compared with 8% of US IG corporate issuance, see the first chart below. Which means EUROPE IS INCREASINGLY FINANCING HYPERSCALER AI ROLLOUT:
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How much of the fiscal stimulus went straight to Korea and Taiwan? @Brad_Setser @Noahpinion
Frederik Ducrozet@fwredOct 7
🇺🇸 US AI imports have *doubled* in just one year, from roughly $500bn to over $1,000bn annualised. In August, AI related goods imports represented 27% of total imports (up from 10% in the last decade), or 3.3% of GDP (up from 1.3%).
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Eric Lonergan retweeted
Dow
@mark_dowOct 7
You also have a federal deficit that is pumping 6-7% of GDP into the private sector and corporate profits.
Sonu Varghese
@sonusvargheseOct 7
Lots of confusion over record highs for the S&P 500 despite elevated rates But this is simply a story of strong nominal growth. Activity is booming (especially thanks to AI capex), but prices also rising (also partly due to the same AI wave) xitter.cf/sonusvarghese/status/2…
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Eric Lonergan retweeted
simon wren-lewis@sjwrenlewisOct 7
Y'days post: Misconceptions following Burnham’s speech mainlymacro.blogspot.com/202… Saying the speech didn’t talk enough about economic growth misses the fact that a substantive realignment towards the EU on trade is the most assured pro-growth measure the government could take.
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Or are equities are hedging bonds? If equities are risky, and bonds are safe, we should expect yields to rise with stock prices. Which is … what’s happening.
Joe Weisenthal
@TheStalwartOct 5
This was a really interesting discussion about surging bond yields
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Important to hedge bond positions with equities
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What is going on in bond markets? ericlonergan915540.substack.… @RobinWigg @RayDalio
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Required listening
Robin Wigglesworth
@RobinWiggOct 5
Gadzooks! Can't believe I forgot to share this great Story of Money episode on some history's more outlandish financial frauds. Our guest was the fantastic @dsquareddigest (who will soon be making a return on my absolute scam of all time...) youtu.be/EngL2jk_O2Q?si=h5Iw…

Why fraud might be good for the economy | The Story of Money

How do you tell if an economy is actually working? Most economics c...

youtube.com
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The Dalio Fallacy - latest Substack. On the bond market. @TheStalwart @tracyalloway @sjwrenlewis @darioperkins @MehreenKhn ericlonergan915540.substack.…
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@PrometheusCHT - you might like this!
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An aside: there were similar fears of a global catastrophe during the advent of the internet. There is an ‘extrapolation fallacy’. @erikbryn
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Replying to @ericlonners
@ericlonners tbc
Samuel Tombs
@samueltombsOct 2
It's beyond doubt now - AI is a net drag on payrolls. Job losses in finance, information and professional and business services are continuously exceeding the jobs created in the construction and manufacturing sectors:
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Despite the unreliability of the payroll data, the sectoral mix is too closely alligned with the anecdotal evidence on AI to be dismissed. US productivity must be accelerating.
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