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🚨 LADIES AND GENTLEMEN OF AMERICA, THE MOMENT YOU’VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR!
The @WNBA has officially responded!
IS THE #WNBA TRANSPHOBIC?
Apparently, the WNBA still can’t define what a WOMAN is, but they’re absolutely certain they know what a MAN is!
How convenient!
WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert has declared that I am a man.
Who gave her the authority to decide who I am?
Who gets to define my identity?
And how can the WNBA determine who is a man without explaining what qualifies someone as a woman?
Is the WNBA denying people the right to define their own gender identity?
You can’t have it both ways!
America, read this letter for yourselves.
THE WNBA HAS SOME EXPLAINING TO DO!
endermule retweeted
Everyone should read The Lessons of History by Will and Ariel Durant at least once. The Durants spent about four decades writing an 11-volume history of civilization, around 10,000 pages in total. Then they wrote this book, about 100 pages long, with everything they had learned. Each chapter takes one big idea: biology, race, war, religion, economics, government. The first lesson is blunt: “life is competition.” You can read it in an afternoon. It’s the best 100 pages of history you will ever read.
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Fascinating history lesson about Islamic slavery
Christopher Hitchens: ”In 1786, when the United States was barely a country, it was having its sailors taken as slaves by the Barbary states, the states of the Ottoman Empire and North Africa. Tripoli, shores of Tripoli. Ships stopped, its crews carried off into slavery. We estimate 1.5 million European and American slaves taken between 1750 and 1815.
Jefferson and Adams went to their ambassador in London and said, why do you do this to us? The United States has never had a quarrel with the Muslim world of any kind. We weren't in the crusades. We weren't at war with Spain. Why do you do this to our people and our ships? Why do you plunder and enslave our people? The ambassador said very plainly, Mr. Abdul Rahman said, because the Quran gives us permission to do so, because you are infidels, and that's our answer. Jefferson said, well, in that case, I will send a navy which will crush your state, which he did.
Islamic fundamentalism is not created by American democracy. It's a lie to say so. It's a masochistic lie, and it excuses those who are the real criminals, and blames us for the attacks made upon us.”
endermule retweeted
humans love tools of intelligence
humans want to look and feel good even more
A weekly jab in the belly is generating more revenue than the entire AI industry.
Ozempic + Mounjaro: $71B in 2025.
OpenAI + Anthropic: $29B.
And they've barely started. ~2% of the 800 million eligible patients can currently access them.
h/t @DrSamuelBHume
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$ASTS: Did you know that AST Chief Commercial Officer Wayne Thorsen previously ran Google's device partnerships and was likely pivotal in Google's strategic investment and partnership w/ AST SpaceMobile.
"He liked the cooking so much that he joined"
$ASTS: Today's PR highlighting the European JV is the first to have quotes from new Chief Commercial Officer Wayne Thorsen. Wayne also posted the following on Linkedin today - clearly he's already been hard at work!
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🚨 BIG EXECUTIVE HIRE FOR $ASTS! 🚀
Dr. Derek Peterson (ex-CTO of Boingo Wireless for 15+ years) joins AST SpaceMobile as CTO, Enterprise & Platforms!
He’s stepping in to lead enterprise IT, platform infrastructure, and cybersecurity as satellite-to-phone scales. 📶🛰️
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$ASTS: Someone gets it….
$ASTS: 🚨ROTH CAPITAL REITERATES $108 PRICE TARGET AND BUY RATING
ASTS: Partner Approach Is Less Spectrum Intensive & Attractive to Sovereign Models
ASTS has come under significant pressure (down 69% since late May; Nasdaq (COMP) down 3%) around the perceived Starlink competitive threat. More recently, this has been exacerbated by SpaceX (SPCX-NC) spectrum-hording events ($8B Grain acquisition). We believe this misses the point, as SPCX requires significant spectrum for direct competition with Tier 1 MNOs, while ASTS embraces a neutral partnership role. Additionally, we believe that neutral status for sovereign constellations continues to favor ASTS as SPCX Ukrainian disruption drives additional business to ASTS. With commercialization still targeting "early 2027," our rating on ASTS remains Buy, with expected near-term volatility.
Still tracking to "early 2027":
Despite recent reports and some launch slippage, ASTS continues to broadly track to an "early 2027" constellation commercialization. Bluebirds 14-16 have arrived at Cape Canaveral for launch, while bluebirds 17-50 are in some form of production. Meanwhile, the launch schedule remains more fluid and has generally lagged expectations. At present, ASTS is heavily dependent on SpaceX's Falcon-9 through year end, before Blue Origin's New Glenn 3 is expected to return to the launch pad. ASTS also remains engaged and in qualification with multiple other launch vehicles. Longer term, we believe that launch vehicle diversity is key to sustaining constellation expansion beyond the base 45 satellites required for commercialization. Overall, the ASTS constellation is "when, not if," and we highlight recent performance tests to validate constellation viability.
Spectrum is nice, partnerships are better:
Post SpaceX/Starlink's disclosure to acquire 14MHz of low-band spectrum from Grain Management for $8B (~$1.75 per MHz/pop), the market and investor concerns have heightened around the importance and requirement for spectrum. This provides SPCX with ~80MHz of aggregate spectrum (14MHz, low-band, 65 MHz mid-band). Lost in the discussion are the different models and go-to-market approaches; ASTS in partnership with 60+ MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) with 3B+ subs; and Starlink with a full-frontal competitive assault on traditional MNOs. Importantly, the average Tier 1 US carrier has over 300MHz of spectrum for terrestrial mobile services in comparison to 80MHz for Starlink. Additionally, each US MNO has 70k+ cell sites vs Starlink's constellation that will have 15k satellites servicing the globe (<1000 over the US at any point in time. Note: The US is ~6% of global landmass). The bottom line is that Starlink has significantly less capacity (<5% in our estimation) due to frequency reuse to support a large subscriber base for primary services, vs complementary satellite coverage to plug in terrestrial coverage gaps as targeted by ASTS.
Sovereign constellations and other issues:
ASTS continues to established itself as a unique and reliable neutral third-party partner for terrestrial MNOs and governmental organizations. While ASTS's 60+ MNOs with 3B+ subs validates this approach, we continue to see increasing opportunities as a prominent provider of dedicated sovereign constellations. Similar to the Japanese J-LEO constellation (The Rakutan-AST SpaceMobile JV subsidized by the Japanese Ministry of Communications to the tune of 150 billion yen (approximately $926 million)), we believe a LEO arms race for sovereign capacity in G-20 and other countries, particularly in the Mideast, could emerge in 2027+. Given recent events around Starlink/Starshield degrading Ukrainian communications infrastructure during Russian drone attacks, we believe that ASTS's position as a neutral third-party leader continues to be solidified. We believe SPCX actions continue to drive business (sovereign constellations, MNOs, government entities) to ASTS and other non-SpaceX vendors such as Gogo (GOGO-Buy). We maintain our Buy rating and believe investor sentiment will shift with continued manufacturing milestones, launches, and ultimate commercialization in 2027.
endermule retweeted
AST SpaceMobile Advances Space-Based Cellular Broadband in Europe in Collaboration with European Mobile Network Operator Partners
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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$ASTS: The FCC's proposed D2D rules are structurally bullish for AST by greatly expanding eligible spectrum by 482 MHz, easing geographic restrictions and streamlining approvals makes it easier for MNOs to leverage their vast spectrum holdings for satellite broadband. This plays directly into AST's strategy.
For Starlink, the implications are mixed. While SpaceX also benefits from regulatory flexibility, the new framework strengthens MNOs it's directly competing against. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile can deploy more unused spectrum and leverage AST to extend their terrestrial networks with space based cellular broadband ensuring 100% geographic coverage across both dead zones and 1-bar zones.
READ: FCC Proposes to Streamline Supplemental Coverage from Space and Direct-to-Device Rules
"The rules proposed… would more than double the amount of spectrum available for supplemental coverage from space.” insideglobaltech.com/2026/10…
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honestly the death of apps will be a good thing.
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$ASTS The JV SatCo (Satellite Connect Europe) with @AST_SpaceMobile as one 50% owner and Vodafone as the other, is indeed only half-European in ownership. 95% of the satellites are manufactured in the USA. But the BlueBird has a technology that makes it compliant to enable European operators to run a sovereign constellation.
The wish and the wishful thinking in Europe is to have a constellation that is not Elon Musk, and to have a European-made alternative that Europe can control. Hence the talks of the JV with the old hags Thales, Aribus and Leonardo (yesteryeas's tech). And there is yet another project that has already commenced: IRIS2, where the LEO satellites will be manufactured in Charleroi, Belgium, and the MEO satellites in Kockelscheuer, Luxembourg. But they have just started. They are YEARS behind.
Meanwhile, there will be an alternative constellation of BlueBirds commercially ready in 2027. Satellite Connect Europe has agreements in nearly all EU (and other European) countries with major MNOs to serve millions of customers.
AST’s transparent bent-pipe architecture functions as a pure radio relay. Phone signals uplink to the satellite and immediately downlink to a local gateway inside the same country. The satellite never demodulates, processes, or routes user data. The local mobile operator retains the baseband units, core network, billing, and all traffic on its own soil under national jurisdiction.
Versus:
Starlink’s regenerative design demodulates and processes signals onboard, then uses inter-satellite links that can route data across borders under SpaceX control.
Even though both firms are American, AST’s model leaves critical infrastructure and data sovereignty with the host country’s operators and regulators.
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$ASTS Michael Pollack, Executive VP for Government Operations at ASTS, was Keynote speaker at the MILCOM 2026 Classified Programs event at John Hopkins 👀
The panel required security clearance to attend, his specifically required Secret level at least
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What is most interesting about the recent $ASTS FCC filing on recommendations for WRC27 is Appendix A (2nd tweet). They have a few bands which are usually exclusive to Japan, namely B18/26 which maps to KDDI and B19 to DoCoMo. If you combine this with knowledge that B8 is being tested already, you might surmise that a JV for all Japanese carriers is a likely outcome from the JLEO project.
Even without this data, hard to think the Japanese Government is going to fund JLEO and not expect the carriers that include 95% of Japanese subscribers (SoftBank, KDDI, and DoCoMo + MVNO using these 3) participate in some way.
The erosion of Starlink Mobile's Tier 1 MNO's continues.
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$ASTS: 💸Don't forget, AST SpaceMobile mobile broadband service is going to be a huge driver of cost savings for MNOs globally.
$ASTS: 🚨💵 MNO CAPEX COST SAVINGS STORY UNLOCKED
AT&T CEO John Stankey Q2 Comments:
“I also think that it's possible you could see some shift in serving architectures moving forward in rural areas. I do believe there'll be areas that satellite might serve adequately that allow us to maybe shrink our terrestrial footprint on what I would refer to as poverty sites and sites that sit out there and pick up relatively small amounts of traffic, but provide continuity of connectivity, and that might be able to positively impact our cost structure in those instances, and at the same time, give the customer a really good experience. I do expect rural characteristics of our business to change.”
$ASTS Assuming the birds go up and work without too many major hiccups (delays matter mainly for cash flow; strategically the MNOs don’t have a ready alternative), what does ASTS look like?
It’s a tower + radio in space. MNOs get incremental coverage + capacity. That means avoided CapEx/opex (potentially $1–2B per large U.S. MNO per year) plus a stickier, more complete network for existing customers.
Carriers already spend ~$10–24B/year in CapEx and ~$11B with tower companies (~$27.50 per U.S. customer just for tower leases).
Is $0.50 per subscriber per month ($6.00 per year) a reasonable wholesale rate for what ASTS brings (tower + comm equipment) (coverage + capacity) (savings + customer stickiness)? That would be ~$3B revenue in the U.S. alone. Scale it globally and add government work and you can sketch a path toward a much larger revenue base...$20B+. Margins would be quite healthy at that point.
All of it still requires getting the constellation up and performing. Execution risk is real. The opportunity if they deliver is large. So this can re-rate very quickly when the path to 30 and 45 and 60 becomes clearer.
(if you think starlink getting there first is a real threat then you don't understand the business models of starlink, the MNOs and ASTS. If you think starlink will take more than 3-5% market share within 10 years of getting its network up, you didn't pay attention to where they are with fixed-wireless. If you think AST is actually competing with starlink directly, you don't understand either business.)
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I spent 48 hours in SF hanging out with billionaires, data labs and AI founders and execs running $1B to $100B companies.
My observations:
1. Sooo MANY stories of data brokers making like $2M a WEEK selling company data to labs. I can't tell if it's the beginning or a bubble, and I kept wondering which niches are left. Digging into it actively.
2. At dinner, someone asked the table, "If a new model drops next month, does your company get better or worse?" HALF the table went quiet! I think that's the best question to ask about any AI startup right now.
3. The bar people talk about now is hitting $1B in revenue in 12 months (I guess that's the new unicorn?). What I didn't hear much about is retention. AI revenue can come in fast and leave fast, and I think we're going to see a lot of stories of AI companies with huge revenue and terrible retention.
4. It's pretty clear we're living through the reinvention of the computer. The model is the CPU, the harness is the operating system, and skills and plugins are the apps. Thinking about it that way makes it easier to see where the whitespace is.
5. We're maybe 12 months from an agent that can watch you work for a week and then do your job without any instructions. The screen recording plus agent memory plus local model combination makes this possible right now.
6. Agent harnesses feel like the new GPT wrappers, in a good way, especially vertical ones. The best teams I talked to treat the model as swappable. One founder walked me through routing different models to different jobs: one for taste and visuals, a cheaper one for the everyday stuff, another for text.
They use prompts they can move across models over fine-tuning, and A/B test the output on what users actually do with it: do they edit it, export it, share it? A vertical harness is basically four things: the connectors for that industry's data, evals written by people who know the work, rules for what the agent can and can't touch, and a clean screen for a human to review. The model is maybe 20% of it.
7. There's a lot of reverse engineering going on/cloning going on more than I've ever seen. People are decompiling software and rebuilding it with agents, and someone showed a suite of like 10 apps that are worth $5B+ each all that he cloned open source. Me and everyone are still thinking through what it means when software gets this easy to copy.
8. My guess is the value moves to data. If the software can be rebuilt quickly, what's worth paying for in a legacy SaaS company is the years of customer data and workflows inside it. Some SaaS companies are secretly data companies.
Gets me thinking about how do you truly value data for this saas companies? Like if we were buying these dying saas companies at 2x ARR before (as example), maybe there is a better metric. Idk, just thinking out loud here.
9. It feels like a good chunk of legacy software won't make it to the agentic era, especially anything built around people clicking through a lot of screens.
10. Every company I talked to wants to pipe its internal data into one place and expose it to agents through MCP. Then they look at the data and realize it's a mess: five versions of the same customer, old Slack channels, PDFs nobody can search. Cleaning that up feels like a big consulting opportunity!
11. A lot of founders are building the basic building blocks for agents: APIs, data layers and tools. Some of the companies I saw barely have a UI because the main user is an agent. I really believe the startups that build primitives to this agentic era will do extremely well. Building blocks is the best way to think about it.
12. Labs can get plenty of training data, but it's harder to get real examples of agents failing inside companies. Whoever has those logs has something valuable.
13. Someone running a big consumer company told me the next fight is over memory. The model that remembers the most about you wins, and the smartest model matters less than people think.
14. Physical AI came up a lot. Astra I think was the first model that got people into AI can actually do CAD, and I think a lot of people are thinking what does vibe manufacturing really look like. The line I keep thinking about came from a robotics founder: the hardest problems in AI are deployment problems now, not research problems. Their robots work on their own, call a human when they get stuck, and every one of those calls becomes training data.
15. Cybersecurity companies are having a moment and are actually cool companies to build now, especially the ones that clean up after a breach. Every agent with access to your systems is a new door into your company, and a lot of those doors were left open.
16. Some startups are worth more dead than alive now. A shutdown company with 5 years of Slack, email and code can get paid for licensing all of it. I wouldn't be surprised if founders start factoring that into when they shut down.
17. People are starting to talk about monetizing the agent web. It feels really early, but when the most popular user of the internet is an agent, what startups should you be building?
18. I think agent insurance is coming. Once an agent makes an expensive mistake, insurers will want audits before they cover anyone.
19. Several people said the hire they want most is someone with taste who can write evals. The models are getting good at generating ideas, so the hard part is judging which ones are good.
20. New trend I observed: startup raises VC, uses venture dollars to become a creator, startup fails, founder falls back on being a full-time creator and incubates other products bootstrapped.
21. Getting SIGNIFICANT distribution is HARD right now. Founders are sponsoring buses, buying billboards like crazy and throwing parties with famous DJs to get noticed. Kinda feels dotcom era in that sense.
Attention is what's scarce! The growth guy going viral sharing his UGC strategy from Wispr Flow is a good example. It's the sauce everyone wants, and I truly believe there are probably only 50 people on the planet who know how to scale these types of businesses efficiently in this era.
Always good to get that dose of SF. I felt sooo lucky to have such an incredible trip during such an incredible time in building businesses. Surreal in so many ways.
Happy to be home and locked in.
Until next time!
endermule retweeted
Mike, as a professional covering this industry, I’d appreciate an explicit distinction here: this is satellite broadband using dedicated antenna terminals, the category people recognize from Starlink dishes on houses. It is not direct-to-cell connectivity to ordinary phones.
Tim’s “game between Amazon LEO and SpaceX” comment illustrates why that distinction is needed. Which game? There are multiple satellite connectivity markets.
AT&T choosing Amazon Leo for terminal-based broadband says nothing about replacing AST SpaceMobile in direct-to-cell. Without that clarification, readers can easily mistake a broadband supplier decision for a verdict on $ASTS.
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$ASTS The CEO of Deutsche Telekom (the parent company of $TMUS), Tim Höttges, just held a webcast for retail investors.
No MVNO deal with TMUS will be on the table for SpaceX.
Naturally, he was asked about SpaceX's ($SPCX) announcement to launch a 4th MNO in the U.S.
It was glaringly obvious that Tim is no longer an Elon Musk fanboy. He pointed out continuously that trust and sovereignty are very important.
For the most part, his comments mirrored the recent LinkedIn post by TMUS CTO John Saw. He downplayed the near-term importance of D2C, limiting its practical use cases to extremely rural areas with zero terrestrial coverage.
Höttges sees a massive barrier to entry for SpaceX entering the MNO market. Satellites alone won't cut it - SpaceX would need to build out terrestrial networks requiring a double-digit billion-dollar investment. While he noted that funding wouldn't be an issue for SpaceX - since 'there are always investors who think Elon can walk on water' - he made one thing clear: No MVNO deal with TMUS will be on the table for SpaceX.
He also sees zero chance of SpaceX acquiring any more relevant spectrum, noting their 79 MHz completely pales in comparison to TMUS's 400 MHz. On top of that, he expects it will take a very long time for SpaceX to even launch the service, emphasizing that this is strictly a U.S. issue, not a global threat.
Disappointingly, no questions were asked regarding their joint venture or ongoing cooperation with Starlink.
But reading between the lines?
Deutsche Telekom is highly unlikely to work with Starlink going forward.
Thanks @manuelkoch1878 for making us aware of the webcast!
endermule retweeted
I'm launching "Factory to Flock".
It's a source-linked record of AST BlueBirds from Midland through shipment, launch, and deployment.
It's built to support my fellow $ASTS retail investors. We need a calm, clear, organized way to follow the company execution as they scale-up.
Many thanks to the early testers who provided feedback. Every bit helped.
I hope you find this useful!
factorytoflock.com/
