@elevenify
elevenify.com
Joined August 2019
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Free Premier League Predictions 馃弳 I am the best #FPL manager over the past 4 years. I share all my data for free on my blog. Now live for 26/27 season. elevenify.com Feature summary thread: 1/

elevenify | Substack

Free Premier League predictions. Click to read elevenify, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

elevenify.com
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GW8 Predictions 馃搳 An early look at the expected outcomes next week.
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Some screenshots from an old article of mine on how we should sensibly react to the early season.
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#1 馃挏
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GW7 Predictions 馃搳 An early look at the expectations for next week.
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Going to be a great relegation fight this year!
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GW6 Prediction Pack 馃搳 A snapshot of match predictions, expected player output, and the fantasy picks worth prioritising.
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Model / Markets / xG / Goals MAE Comparisons for GW1-5 馃搳馃敭 Here a team-by-team breakdown of prediction accuracy for the first 5 gameweeks of the season (lower is better). MAE to Goals: elevenify at 0.99, Markets at 1.01 MAE to xG: elevenify at 0.63 , Markets at 0.65
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As always, I wouldn't recommend you care about this too much. There is no single source of truth. I'm just one dude. Use a plethora of sources. Draw your own conclusions. etc. etc. etc.
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if you thought this week was fun, wait until you have to pick your GW6 captain
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GW5 B A R : N E S | R Y
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yeah that鈥檒l do
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GW5 Predictions 馃搳 An early snapshot of the expectations this week.
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Hull have now taken 8 points from 4 games. Based on the pre-match probabilities, they鈥檇 have been expected to take ~2.8. For a rough sense of the odds, grab a coin, you get one attempt to flip it 6 times, and you need every flip to land the same way.
elevenify@elevenifySep 5
Hull among the worst promoted sides we鈥檝e seen. Now they鈥檝e taken 7 points from an expected ~2.4. I think that is the best three-game start by a promoted team ever.
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My two cents on framing Palmer TC vs waiting decision: 1. Work out the performance metrics you care about (e.g. xPts / projGI). 2. Evaluate how uncertainties affect the metrics (e.g. future opportunity variance, meta changes, rare high-value events, new information value, etc.)
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Received an unbelievable amount of questions on this (which is in itself interesting). I always encourage people to work through some sort of process similar to above, so you can get to your own personal answer, which has other benefits such as reducing regret risk and tilt etc.
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GW4 Player Predictions 馃搳 Final look at where player output is likely to come from this week.
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GW4 Predictions 馃搳 Early snapshot of the expectations for next week.
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Model / Markets / xG / Goals Comparisons for GW1-3 馃搳馃敭 I know many people care about this (imo you absolutely shouldn't!) so here is some visualisation of predictions for the first 3 weeks. MAE to Goals: both at 0.89 MAE to xG: elevenify at 0.64 , Markets at 0.67
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A very familiar pattern for Man United each season. Preseason expectations are high, only to be quickly tempered by the opening games. 4 points from fixtures worth an expected ~6.1. And it only gets harder from here.
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Hull among the worst promoted sides we鈥檝e seen. Now they鈥檝e taken 7 points from an expected ~2.4. I think that is the best three-game start by a promoted team ever.
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