Macro, trading and Philadelphia Eagles Thoughts, comments and ideas are not investment advice.
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MCTrader retweeted
Today’s Census print on single-family housing starts was a head-scratcher. Homebuilders we survey (consistent sample size with minimal noise) saw starts per community drop -13% YOY nationally in July, with all regions falling except for the Midwest.
In order for the Census data to be correct on July single-family starts +7% YOY (NSA), builders would need to grow community counts ~+20% YOY, which is very hard to believe and doesn’t match what we're hearing, even from the big builders.
MCTrader retweeted
Yesterday: "There's been a surprising increase in import prices on goods, which is kind of hard to understand" Jerome Powell
Today: In May, import prices for non-auto consumer goods declined 0.2%. Over the last three months, off 2.1% and flat over the last year.
MCTrader retweeted
Philadelphia’s mayor has his own beer now 👀🍻 Congrats @jasonkelce!
We love GARAGE BEER too so we want to hook you guys up…
RT this tweet & FOLLOW @drinkgaragebeer for your chance to win a GB swag pack 🎽🧢
MCTrader retweeted
This is Q1 inflation PTSD for several Fed officials. Only 1 person expected core PCE to be 2.9%-3.0% in Mar and now we have 4 in that camp. No one thought it'd be 3.1%-3.2% and now there are 3 in that camp. That is odd given it was 2.75% in Apr and likely to drop to 2.6% in May.
MCTrader retweeted
Permanent job losers as a share of the civilian labor force have been rising since September 2022 and rose above 1% for the first time in two years
MCTrader retweeted
Fodder for the doves. We think the odds of a May rate cut are somewhat higher than consensus assumes. Today's employment report supports the doves. Downward revisions to payrolls. Unemployment rate up. Wage growth softer than expectations (with downward revision)
MCTrader retweeted
US flash #PMI for February: sustained growth as manufacturing rebounds, accompanied by subdued inflation pressures pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home…
MCTrader retweeted
Market overreacted to the CPI report. While above analysts expectation, monetary policy is not set to analyst expectations. Nothing in the report indicates anything other than a continued trend towards lower inflation. March cut was already off the table, little impact on May.
MCTrader retweeted
South Korean S&P Global Manufacturing #PMI Jan: 51.2 (prev 49.9)
pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home…
RT @zer0estv: @ElementMacro and Ivan Cosovic of @BreakoutPoint look back on a busy November in the world of short selling.
Watch the full…
MCTrader retweeted
The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange has said a report by U.S. researchers suggesting there were investors in Israel who may have profited from prior knowledge of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack was inaccurate and its publication irresponsible, per Reuters.
MCTrader retweeted
Turn ‘em up
It’s gonna be a party in South Bend
#GoIrish☘️
