Colorado River Historian and Provocateur
Arriola, Colorado
Joined June 2009
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Powell is up 190,000 AF month over month. Probably more than that since it bottomed and storms started. San Juan’s may get 2-3’ again Wednesday
The blue line is Powell inflow from OCT26_MIN 24 month study. Its actual values interpolated from end of month values so smooth. Actuals ended Oct 1 so it doesn’t track latest storms.
The dashed line is USBR RISE Powell inflow from reservoir mass balance from change in storage, releases, evaporation and change in bank storage. It’s noisy and peaky. It will show side inflows and rain on the lake which the 4 stacked river gages don’t see.
“I grabbed this graph from a set I was working on and it’s a little out of context. I was pleasantly surprised when I saw how much Powell was popping again”, said Mr Brightside.
“Mead is still dropping. Only 150,000 AF above 1035’ and standard turbine shutoff if 1035’ really is the critical elevation”, said Dr Doom and chicken little.
“When drought and a record-dry winter cut the water supply? Hobbs turned to that repository to pick varieties of heritage grains and legumes that had deep roots, grew quickly, could withstand heat, or could produce a crop after being irrigated once or twice.”
coloradosun.com/2026/10/18/c…
Another important paragraph from operating guidelines on this. Im pretty sure if CA & IID don’t do the LB agreement @usbr is going to shift their 440,000 AFY cuts on to @CAPArizona and @SNWA_H2O immediately which means time is of the essence in their APA suit:
“Where necessary parties do not reach consensus on proposed operational measures or agreements, the Secretary will proceed consistent with applicable Federal law, the 2006 Consolidated Decree … the Law of the River, and all other governing statutes, regulations, and contractual obligations… The absence of such agreements shall not impair, delay, or otherwise limit the Secretary’s authority to implement operations in 2027 and 2028.”
I’m wondering what happens if CA and @IIDatWork don’t reach an agreement with @usbr on the 440,000 AFY of cuts THIS year and then what happens.
Does the Bureau not declare a shortage and doesn’t enforce the full 1.25 MAFY cut so Mead crashes faster or do they shift CA’s 440,000 AFY on to AZ. I lean towards the second one which would land 1.2 MAFY shortage on @CAPArizona THIS year. Is CA in the catbird seat? This is really vague and complicated. They should have negotiated these agreements before the ROD.
From the 2027–2028 Operating Guidelines (Section 5.3)
2. Of the 6.25 maf that shall be apportioned each calendar year for consumptive use in the Lower Division States of which 2.04 maf shall be apportioned for use in Arizona, 3.96 maf shall be apportioned for use in California and 250,000 acre-feet (af) shall be apportioned for use in Nevada, reflecting reductions of 760,000 af in Arizona, 440,000 af in California, and 50,000 af in Nevada, in accordance with a Lower Basin implementing agreement(s).
3. If the Lower Division States have not fully executed the applicable or necessary implementing agreements, the Secretary shall determine the quantities and apportionment thereof as identified in Section 5.3.A.1, in accordance with applicable law.
Section 5.3.A.1 of the 2027–2028 Operating Guidelines states:
1. The Secretary will determine that a Shortage Condition exists for the applicable Year for purposes of the apportionment of Colorado River water among the Lower Division States and will apportion 6.25 maf for consumptive use in the Lower Division States. This represents a reduction of 1.25 maf from the quantity apportioned to the Lower Division States under a Normal Condition.
Ed Millard retweeted
The Lower Division States plan plan from May 1st is on life support. California (IID) agreed to share 440,000 acf/y of CAP and SNWAs shortages for two years in return for no litigation and $$.
Neither of those things happened. You think California (IID) is happy? Priority time.
“Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke announced Friday that the state filed a motion to intervene in a lawsuit by the neighboring state.”
“the federal plan “would devastate Arizona’s economy.”
latimes.com/environment/stor…
Driving circles in the canyons of my mind
Well it’s warfare out there folks
youtube.com/watch?v=iwebrzEl…
I’m wondering what happens if CA and @IIDatWork don’t reach an agreement with @usbr on the 440,000 AFY of cuts THIS year and then what happens.
Does the Bureau not declare a shortage and doesn’t enforce the full 1.25 MAFY cut so Mead crashes faster or do they shift CA’s 440,000 AFY on to AZ. I lean towards the second one which would land 1.2 MAFY shortage on @CAPArizona THIS year. Is CA in the catbird seat? This is really vague and complicated. They should have negotiated these agreements before the ROD.
From the 2027–2028 Operating Guidelines (Section 5.3)
2. Of the 6.25 maf that shall be apportioned each calendar year for consumptive use in the Lower Division States of which 2.04 maf shall be apportioned for use in Arizona, 3.96 maf shall be apportioned for use in California and 250,000 acre-feet (af) shall be apportioned for use in Nevada, reflecting reductions of 760,000 af in Arizona, 440,000 af in California, and 50,000 af in Nevada, in accordance with a Lower Basin implementing agreement(s).
3. If the Lower Division States have not fully executed the applicable or necessary implementing agreements, the Secretary shall determine the quantities and apportionment thereof as identified in Section 5.3.A.1, in accordance with applicable law.
Section 5.3.A.1 of the 2027–2028 Operating Guidelines states:
1. The Secretary will determine that a Shortage Condition exists for the applicable Year for purposes of the apportionment of Colorado River water among the Lower Division States and will apportion 6.25 maf for consumptive use in the Lower Division States. This represents a reduction of 1.25 maf from the quantity apportioned to the Lower Division States under a Normal Condition.
Jeffrey Wall and Morgan Ratner (the Gibson Dunn Supreme Court / appellate team Arizona brought in) can be useful at every stage of this APA case, not solely on a loss.
• District court stage: Appellate specialists are often brought in early on high-stakes administrative cases precisely to frame issues cleanly, shape the administrative-record arguments, and avoid creating problems that will hurt on appeal. They can also handle or support briefing and any oral argument in the district court.
• If Arizona/Nevada win: The federal government (or other parties) can still appeal. The same team would then be defending the favorable district court ruling in the Ninth Circuit and, if necessary, opposing or responding to a cert petition.
• If they lose: The team would lead the effort to reverse in the Ninth Circuit and, if appropriate, seek Supreme Court review.
They are there because this dispute has a realistic chance of going up the appellate ladder (and because Arizona has been preparing for possible Supreme Court involvement since it first retained outside counsel). Their presence does not depend on losing; it depends on the case continuing and remaining high-stakes enough to justify top-tier appellate counsel. Many of the most effective Supreme Court practitioners get involved well before any loss occurs so the record and arguments are positioned correctly from the start.
These pro hac filings with @azwater law suit are interesting. They seem to be angling towards Supreme Court eventually with people who spun off Sullivan and Cromwell.
Arizona is pairing its longtime in-house Colorado River counsel (Klobas) with a high-powered Gibson Dunn appellate team (Wall and Ratner) that recently left Sullivan & Cromwell, supported by local Nevada counsel from Hutchison & Steffen.
Morgan R. Ratner
• Role: Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP (Washington, D.C.), Appellate and Constitutional Law practice.
• Background: Highly regarded appellate advocate. She has argued roughly 10 cases before the U.S. Supreme Court with strong success at both the certiorari and merits stages. Previously served more than four years as an Assistant to the Solicitor General at the U.S. Department of Justice, where she argued cases and filed 150+ Supreme Court briefs. Clerkships: Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., and then-Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh (D.C. Circuit). Recently moved to Gibson Dunn (April 2026) as part of a four-partner team from Sullivan & Cromwell. Recognized as The American Lawyer’s 2024 Young Lawyer of the Year (Litigation) and profiled by Law360 among future leaders of the Supreme Court bar.
• Education: Harvard Law School (J.D., Fay Diploma as top student); University of Maryland (B.A.).
• Relevance here: Brings high-level Supreme Court and appellate expertise in complex regulatory and statutory interpretation matters. gibsondunn.com (gibsondunn.com/lawyer/ratner…)
Jeffrey B. Wall
• Role: Partner and Co-Chair of the Appellate and Constitutional Law Practice Group at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP (Washington, D.C.). Former Acting Solicitor General of the United States.
• Background: One of the country’s leading appellate advocates. He has argued more than 30 cases before the U.S. Supreme Court. Served as Acting Solicitor General (2020–2021) and Principal Deputy Solicitor General during the first Trump administration. Previously a partner and head of Supreme Court and Appellate Practice at Sullivan & Cromwell before joining Gibson Dunn in April 2026 with the same team that includes Morgan Ratner. Clerkships: Justice Clarence Thomas and Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson III (Fourth Circuit). Ranked Band 1 by Chambers USA; named Appellate Attorney of the Year by The National Law Journal; multiple “Litigator of the Week” honors.
• Education: University of Chicago Law School; Georgetown University.
• Relevance here: Top-tier Supreme Court and federal appellate specialist frequently retained for high-stakes challenges to federal agency action. en.wikipedia.org (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_W…)
These pro hac filings with @azwater law suit are interesting. They seem to be angling towards Supreme Court eventually with people who spun off Sullivan and Cromwell.
Arizona is pairing its longtime in-house Colorado River counsel (Klobas) with a high-powered Gibson Dunn appellate team (Wall and Ratner) that recently left Sullivan & Cromwell, supported by local Nevada counsel from Hutchison & Steffen.
Morgan R. Ratner
• Role: Partner, Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP (Washington, D.C.), Appellate and Constitutional Law practice.
• Background: Highly regarded appellate advocate. She has argued roughly 10 cases before the U.S. Supreme Court with strong success at both the certiorari and merits stages. Previously served more than four years as an Assistant to the Solicitor General at the U.S. Department of Justice, where she argued cases and filed 150+ Supreme Court briefs. Clerkships: Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Jr., and then-Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh (D.C. Circuit). Recently moved to Gibson Dunn (April 2026) as part of a four-partner team from Sullivan & Cromwell. Recognized as The American Lawyer’s 2024 Young Lawyer of the Year (Litigation) and profiled by Law360 among future leaders of the Supreme Court bar.
• Education: Harvard Law School (J.D., Fay Diploma as top student); University of Maryland (B.A.).
• Relevance here: Brings high-level Supreme Court and appellate expertise in complex regulatory and statutory interpretation matters. gibsondunn.com (gibsondunn.com/lawyer/ratner…)
Jeffrey B. Wall
• Role: Partner and Co-Chair of the Appellate and Constitutional Law Practice Group at Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP (Washington, D.C.). Former Acting Solicitor General of the United States.
• Background: One of the country’s leading appellate advocates. He has argued more than 30 cases before the U.S. Supreme Court. Served as Acting Solicitor General (2020–2021) and Principal Deputy Solicitor General during the first Trump administration. Previously a partner and head of Supreme Court and Appellate Practice at Sullivan & Cromwell before joining Gibson Dunn in April 2026 with the same team that includes Morgan Ratner. Clerkships: Justice Clarence Thomas and Judge J. Harvie Wilkinson III (Fourth Circuit). Ranked Band 1 by Chambers USA; named Appellate Attorney of the Year by The National Law Journal; multiple “Litigator of the Week” honors.
• Education: University of Chicago Law School; Georgetown University.
• Relevance here: Top-tier Supreme Court and federal appellate specialist frequently retained for high-stakes challenges to federal agency action. en.wikipedia.org (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_W…)
Arizona seeks remand without vacating the 2027–2028 guidelines to preserve near-term predictability; Nevada seeks full vacatur, and Arizona raises state-specific economic and operational concerns.
AZ Motion to Intervene in @SNWA_H2O law suit again @Bureau over #ColoradoRiver NEPA. These things always land on Friday.
storage.courtlistener.com/re…
AZ Motion to Intervene in @SNWA_H2O law suit again @Bureau over #ColoradoRiver NEPA. These things always land on Friday.
storage.courtlistener.com/re…
“Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke announced Friday that the state filed a motion to intervene in a lawsuit by the neighboring state.”
“the federal plan “would devastate Arizona’s economy.”
latimes.com/environment/stor…
Reservoir Reality, the simpler version. Note Havasu is very similar to Navajo and Mohave is very similar to Flaming Gorge. Pretty sure @usbr will have to drain 1 MAF out of Mohave before they whack @SNWA_H2O and @CAPArizona under Article IV(b)
varuna.io/Colorado/pdf/Reser…
Reservoir Reality with Upper Basin Reservoirs and YoY levels on Mead and Powell showing Sweet Spot. UB really isn't hording water. Most of big ones are municipal reserves that pale in comparison to LB, Strawberry is Salt Lake
varuna.io/Colorado/pdf/Reser…
#ColoradoRiver 24-Month Study for October just released
usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/24m…
OpenET Applications Conference Nov 17-18
Wobus is AZ, Peter Culp affiliated. Two from Utah DM program Amanda Daniels and Lily Bosworth
us.list-manage.com/zxJxb2RZV…
