@econJaredB
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Joined January 2025
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Here’s Ryan C @weakinstrument and my explanation for why we think our AI-looks-bubbly call remains intact (with methods section on how we got there). We drill down on the spend vs revenues gap, which is…vast.
econjared.substack.com/p/ai-…
An analogy: there’s an arsonist burning down homes. The police recommend checking your fire extinguisher.
Trump admin: you want lower diesel prices? End the damn war!
econjared.substack.com/p/shu…
I think r* has probably gone up, at least over the medium term.
econjared.substack.com/p/r
These two things are closely connected, right? 1) Spiking gas price (diesel highest on record; "cars run on gas; economies run on diesel") and this "don't look there; look here!" breaking news (NYT):
Given the alphabetical seating arrangement at the Fed press conference, I looking forward to enjoying the "All Street Journal" and "Anew York Times."
Right before Trump's war-of-choice, the 30 yr fixed-rate mortgage was 5.99%. Today, it topped 7%. For the median-priced home w 20% down payment, that's an extra $2,900/yr in mortgage payments. Of course, no one's refinancing.
It's just latest eg of Trump's UNaffordability agenda.
The White House Budget Office (kinda) released the Mid-Session Review today. It's the barest bones MSR ever, w almost no budget numbers, no deficit accounting (revs - spending) and, for the 1st time in history, I believe, no economic forecast.
whitehouse.gov/wp-content/up…
I get it. This complaint is a bit like the old line: "The food here's terrible! And the portions are so small!" Their numbers/fcast would have surely been unreliable. We know Bessent''s big deficit reduction plan is to "grow our way out of it!" Which is pure hand waving.
A stronger-than-expected jobs report w positive payroll revisions, unemp steady at 4.1%, tick up in LFPR. But none of that is reflected in nominal wage growth, which is lowest since pandemic and lagging inflation for (probably) five months running (don't have Aug CPI yet).
In this Politico article on diesel prices at their highest on record, VP Vance says ridiculous things:
'He...claimed that gas prices “could have been much much higher were it not for our efforts...I can’t repeat this enough, but for the leadership of President Trump...
...and the hard work of our troops, we would have had an energy crisis because the Iranians refused to stop acting like terrorists in the Strait of Hormuz,” Vance said.'
Ok, not breaking news that he's spinning. But what struck me was how disrespectful that is to regular folks...
...trying to get by. He must think we're all absolute idiots.
politico.com/news/2026/09/03…
I woke up, wrote a table-setter for the big Warsh speech, including the table below and hopes for some clarifications from the new chair. Then updated after the speech, which had +'s and -'s. Check it out:
econjared.substack.com/p/bef…
Fed officials have been leaning toward a rate hike, and basically challenging the data to talk them off of the ledge. This AMs PCE report doesn’t say “jump” but neither does it say “come inside and let’s talk this out.”
Those of us tracking the reliability of gov't statistics have not heretofore seen anything like this. It's a remarkable and deeply worrisome encroachment: econjared.substack.com/p/the…
It's good to see more construction jobs, but I suspect I speak for many: we'd like to see more homes, less data centers!
(data are basically residential--down--and nonresidential--up--subcontractors)
1-month does not a new trend make, BUT *very* soft jobs report.
-payrolls down overall; pvt up 30K; large negative revisons;
-unemp ticked down for wrong reasons: both emp and labor force down in (noisy) HH survey
-yrly wage growth 3.2%, lowest since pandemic
more to come...
My take on today's jobs report. Definitely no reason to panic. These data are noisy. 4.1% is low unemp. But there are real fragilities herein, more so than we typically see at low unemp. And I'm talking trends, not data points.
econjared.substack.com/p/jul…
From this AMs productivity data, BLS labor share lowest on record & tanking. Measurement issues bias this down some, but direction of travel is clear. And this is at low unemp. It's a sign of a serious distributional problem and further evidence of (good) macro/(bad) micro split.
Greg Ip (note exactly a commie) in a recent column on this labor share decline: “You can be a red-blooded capitalist and still worry about the political stability of an economy in which ever more output flows toward shareholders instead of employees.”
wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-r…
