Principal Scientist at The Demex Group. Bringing together AI and severe weather observations to help quantify risk to homeowners and businesses.
Lakeland, FL
Joined May 2011
- Tweets5.6K
- Following783
- Followers518
- Likes2.1K
I think I have an idea of what's going on here.
If input variables are climo centered coming in and they both *don't* factor in the diurnal phase and the absolute value (norm'd), then that'd throw off the end result.
That's my guess -- improper climo rescaling.
First slowly, and then all at once.
Anecdotally, I am seeing this behavior hit the Lakeland periphery up in Auburndale.
Massive discount on 2024 build house in Florida.
Owner bought it for $525k as a new build.
Two years later, is now listing for $410k in a VA short sale.
That's a $115,000 discount (-22%) from original purchase.
Note how the PSF price of this house is now only $123 PSF, which is well below industry standard replacement cost.
There's definitely still downside in Florida's correction left, however, we are starting to see 'post-crash pricing' on many listings throughout the state.
Especially ones with distress, and surrounding Central to Western Florida.
To see how much to offer on homes like this, copy and paste the listing link into our analyzer: reventure.app
David R retweeted
I'm looking for a PhD student for Fall 2027 at the University of Miami. The project is a good mix of math, fluid mechanics, and numerical simulation. The student will lead the development of the first theory and measurements of wind-driven wave tearing and implementing those to advance hurricane prediction.
This is fully funded through my new @NSF CAREER 5-year grant. It covers tuition, health insurance, a $43,200 yearly stipend, and a $5000 relocation bonus. Starting in Spring 2027 is possible as well.
Our work is hybrid & flexible to allow for a good & healthy lifestyle, we're very progressive about AI agents for scientific research, and have the high-end hardware needed to make these measurements. I think this is also a great opportunity to experience life in Miami for 5 years and all it has to offer.
David R retweeted
**Axios track record on these:** Mixed but consistent pattern. They reliably capture what anonymous US officials *say* about progress (multiple May-June scoops on "one-page MOU close," "60-day ceasefire extension reached pending Trump sign-off," frameworks for Hormuz/nuclear talks).
Iranian denials or strong qualifications have followed several key reports within 48 hrs or days (e.g., May 28 deal claims called "inaccurate"/"not finalized" via Tasnim; other Axios scoops dismissed as "American wishlist").
**Sunday oil correlation:** Clear. Multiple Axios-sourced de-escalation reports have broken or amplified into weekend/Sunday trading windows, triggering immediate futures selling (e.g., 4%+ drops tied to ceasefire/Hormuz optimism as risk premium eases).
**Reliability verdict:** Useful signal of US-side optimism/leaks for leverage. Not a strong predictor of finalized mutual agreements—talks have repeatedly stalled on nuclear details, assets, etc. Treat as one-sided market-moving narrative; verify against Iranian statements before assuming durability. Classic fog-of-war sourcing.
David R retweeted
Florida metro area housing markets DOWN the most from their 2022 home price peak:
-25.2% --> Punta Gorda, FL
-18.8% --> Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
-17.4% --> North Port-Sarasota, FL
-11.5% --> Naples, FL
-9.2% --> Tampa, FL
Not effin' fast enough!
7) When I look at the map above, the first thing I think is "pandemic boom reversion".
Nearly all the states that now have above-2019 supply are those that boomed during the pandemic.
Texas, Florida, Tennessee, North Carolina, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Idaho.
Clearly, these markets are mean-reverting and actually reverting above the mean now.
David R retweeted
You’re absolutely right, 6 beers for someone with your tailgating experience can actually stabilize your driving, and that’s a key distinction that most miss.
I use this every day for work. Can confirm that it is great.
Trending repository of the day 📈
superpowers
An agentic skills framework & software development methodology that works.
Last 24h: 3,078 ⭐
Total: 94,156 ⭐️
github.com/obra/superpowers
For later, I always wonder how these physics-based approaches work with meteorology.
If you stuck around till here, thank you!
Please check out the work here: arxiv.org/abs/2602.21778. We're also open-sourcing everything -- checkpoints, code, and the dataset ❤️
Best collaborators ever: @ben_nebulous, @zhuole1025, and others!
David R retweeted
New art project.
Train and inference GPT in 243 lines of pure, dependency-free Python. This is the *full* algorithmic content of what is needed. Everything else is just for efficiency. I cannot simplify this any further.
gist.github.com/karpathy/862…
David R retweeted
3) I have some concerns about the long-term health of Florida's demographic situation.
You can see that for 5 years in a row, Florida's population has declined due to Natural Increase (birts-deaths) being negative.
No one really noticed this because both domestic and international migration during pandemic was so high. Boosting overall population numbers.
But now that both domestic and international migration are falling, I think we could begin to see some demographic issues crop up in Florida's housing market.
David R retweeted
Wow - looking at the turnout data from Virginia, the biggest change in the composition of the electorate, relative to 2021, was among voters under the age of 30. Their total turnout increased by over 50%.
WHOOOOUUGGHHH
BREAKING: Silver prices officially rise above $100/oz for the first time in history, now up +40% in 2026.
We have all witnessed history today.
Embrace your inner sociopath!
Most corporate careers stall out in middle management
The people who make it past to level 4/5 are better at 1 key thing:
They are comfortable with interdependence
Early in career you don’t have to rely on anyone else to do great work and be a top performer. Every step up the ladder means you rely on others more to achieve this - direct reports, influencing peers not under direct control, managing up.
As interdependence grows so does the conflict. Ability to be comfortable with interdependence and inevitable conflict is required to make it past level 3.
Zillow doomscrolling for the night. Check this sucker out! Sold for $370K in 2020, almost sold for $549K in August, and then a 19% *increase*!? Good luck with that. Beautiful home, though: zillow.com/homedetails/4344-…
