Trader in the US equity market. Beware imposter accounts. I NEVER send DMs. #PositiveVibesOnly 😇 All negativity will be blocked. 🚫
Manhattan, NY
Joined December 2014
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Want to share something that’s made a huge difference for me:
Most of you know I’ve dealt with anxiety and depression for a long time, so I’m always on the lookout for things that might help. A few weeks ago I came across something called EFT tapping (Emotional Freedom Technique), and honestly, it’s been the most helpful tool I’ve ever found.
It’s super simple. A combination of exposure therapy, CBT and somatic work. It takes less than 10 minutes, it’s free, you can do it anywhere, and there’s zero risk to trying it. People use it for anxiety, stress, trauma, phobias, chronic pain, and a bunch of other things too.
I’d never even heard of it until recently, which is why I wanted to share it. It’s a relatively new therapy so if you’re struggling with something, or know someone who is, it might be worth checking out. I really hope it helps someone else the way it’s helping me. 😇
youtube.com/playlist?list=PL…
Stopped out of most of my positions today.
Case for bears:
-Todays action feels like a change in character for the market.
-If semis are any indication of what’s ahead for the broader market, it looks like we’re seeing Stage 3 tops across the board and could be heading into a Stage 4 downtrend.
-A stage 4 mkt is not something we have experienced in quite a while. So it wouldn’t be particularly surprising.
-A lot of setups have broken down today, and many charts will take time to become constructive again. DELL is a good example.
-The selling has also been relentless since the morning—very systematic, steady, and persistent.
The bullish case:
-The QQQs are sitting right at the 50-day MA, which is a strong area of support, with an unfilled gap up below/around that area.
-And, as often happens, when everyone has been stopped out and is sitting in cash, the market puts in a bottom and a new rally begins.
-That would also align with seasonality, given that we’re approaching the end of the year, when we typically see a strong rally.
So there’s still a lot to figure out:
1. whether this is an actual top
2. whether we’re entering a correction
3. how deep or prolonged that correction might be
4. and whether it plays out as a price correction or a time correction.
WL for tomorrow:
Gral
Crwd
Amd
Mstr
Spcx
Plan for tomorrow:
After a day like today, I also tend to become a little trigger-shy. I’d rather let things settle before acting again, or wait for a proper flush-out with extreme oversold conditions before looking to get back in. For now, I think it’s a matter of watching how things develop rather than forcing trades in an environment where the odds may no longer be in our favor.
One thing I’ve been thinking about is that if this doesn’t turn out to be a major flush-out followed by a V-shaped recovery, but instead marks the beginning of a longer-term bear market like 2022, I would probably do very little. Based on my backtesting, I haven’t found a way to generate consistent positive returns in that kind of environment. The longs don’t work, the shorts don’t work, and eventually everything cancels itself out. It becomes a massive waste of time and energy. By the time the market eventually turns, I’m exhausted and frustrated, and then I struggle to act when I should.
Mansi retweeted
Warsh's Wife:
"Where are we going for dinner?"
Warsh, Probably:
"Wouldn't you like to know? No forward guidance."
