the cycle repeats
people chase fast money. that's the baseline psychology.
to keep the euphoria alive you need constant geometric growth, price has to keep going up faster and faster.
once btc hits a ath price, making that happen becomes exponentially harder, the absolute $$$ needed for the same moves, the number of new buyers required a lot of more. liquidity thins out at the top because everyone who wanted in already got in.
so the market does what it always does:
ath feel euphoric - momentum slows - sideways grind start - impatience builds - people start looking for the next narrative or something for quick flip - capital rotates out - price corrects - despair phase - bottom - new cycle begins
the funny part is how predictable the emotional arc is. same posts, same cope, same hopium, same blame game, just different tickers and different years.
the cycle just doing what it always does, when too many people wants exponential returns forever, and the higher we go, the heavier the math gets.
dreamly retweeted
some screenshots from Lighter's mobile app that just dropped today
first of all, to start, you can simply connect any of your existing Lighter trading accounts just by scanning a QR code and start trading immediately in a familiar environment with your usual assets. you can trade everything you normally do on the web platform without hesitation: perps, spot, RWAs, pre-markets, like
there are also different themes available and some useful mobile features like haptic feedback and face ID verification
so, after using it for half a day, i didn’t notice any lags or sudden app closures. everything runs smoothly, the interface feels intuitive, and actions are performed quickly
if you spend a lot of time on your phone and trade regularly like i do, you should definitely try it out, it’s really easy and convenient to use
we keep talking about dex apps but…
Hyperliquid still runs OI + volume
Lighter is zero fees + mobile soon
and then there's Aster…?
Prediction Markets Arbitrage
Prediction markets are mostly used to predict outcomes.
They can also be used to buy pricing mistakes.
What’s actually working today:
> Multi-outcome markets
If all outcomes sum to < $1 -> lock the $1
Usually 1–1.5% on liquid events, more on thin ones
> Cross-platform spreads (my favorite)
Same event, different user predictions (not much ofc)
Polymarket vs Kalshi still gives clean 1-3%, especially near expiry.
Reality:
Most edges are small, bots are fast, nothing lasts long.
But the boring, mechanical arbs still work because most people want to bet, not price.
If you’re new, start with a simple sports market.
It’s slower than it looks, but very real.
Especially today you can literally vibecode most of the arbitrage setups
dreamly retweeted
We’re live on Zealy!
Join the quests and start earning rewards.
Early supporters matter.
Join: zealy.io/cw/anybet/questboar…
new wallet wakes up, deposits $2.89m usdc straight into @Lighter_xyz
buys 991k lit @ ~$2.92 avg
address: 0x51bec3e10335c687eedf2db7d532c2d9769df201
fresh wallet, classic smart money
post TGE accumulation at these levels interesting
either strong hands betting on ecosystem ramp
new account placed $32k on dec 27 on "Maduro out by Jan end"
US grabs him overnight.
three other small, invasion linked bets.
geopolitical markets love leaks.
pnl: +$412k
(polymarket.com/@0x31a56e9E69…)
just built a simple script for those 15 min polymarket things like bitcoin up or down ones spent like couple hours on it and fired it up today with small money to see if it even works properly.
not planning to sell the bot or share code or anything just wanted to start this path and test in real conditions will update how it goes over time maybe.
so much FUD flying on $LIT, but look at the chart:
> holding strong despite hella sell pressure day 1, performs clean
> 50% eco (25% already airdropped, rest for next seasons/partners)
> 50% team/VC (1y cliff + 3y vest)
> revenue/buybacks value direct to holders (track onchain), utility in staking tiers
dreamly retweeted
Lighter's TGE today highlights the biggest problem for new token launches in crypto rn
If everybody only trades perps for new tokens, then who will buy the actual spot tokens??
The game is horribly broken (thanks to pre-markets), and something needs to change
89.3% covers all outcomes
we keep hunting edges in complicated setups
while missing the one staring at us
Lighter TGE date market on poly right now:
dec 29 - 12%
dec 30 - 58%
dec 31 - 15%
no 2025 tge - 12%
add them: 97% (now)
a guaranteed 1$ payout trading at 97 cents
calculations:
at 10.7% spread (best can see on chart csv history)
cost: $893
payout: $1000
profit: $107
no private strategies, no softwares, nothing but just buy all outcomes and wait
even small ones compound if you stack them quiet, so good luck on it
