Space weather only #AuDHD https://xitter.cf/t.co/oLIp56qfhZ
Berlin
Joined February 2011
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Three sunspot groups, some magnetic flux is emerging; still a chance of isolated M-class flares…
Solar Synoptic Map
- 3 active regions on the visible solar disk: 4560 simple bipolar; 4557 slowly growing, quite stable; 4551 confined M1.68 solar flare ≈0900 UTC, no CME ('solar storm')
- coronal hole CH04+: elevated chances of aurora from 19 Oct, SWPC: G1 watch 19/20 Oct
A filament (or prominence) eruption occurred early on 17 October 2026 UTC day at/behind the southeastern limb of the Sun. Quite a large CME ('solar storm', not heading towards Earth) was produced.
(SDO AIA 304, AIA 171, AIA 193 Running Difference)
The Sun in extreme ultraviolet (AIA, SDO satellite)
- region 4551 (S) looks stable
- ongoing flux emergence in region 4557 (N)
- wobbly filament north of 4551
- (+) polarised coronal hole crossed the central meridian
Slowly growing sunspot groups 4557 (N) and 4451 (S) with some low level C-class flare activity
(SDO HMI, SDO AIA 94, PFSS field lines, GOES X-ray flux long)
Streamer Blowout a.k.a. Balloon CME from the southwestern limb of the Sun. The streamer is generated by a large negative coronal hole in the southern hemisphere and the positively polarised coronal hole near the south pole of the Sun.
A positively polarised coronal hole is approaching the central meridian of the Sun. That could mean there is an Increased chance of aurora in a week or so, especially at higher latitudes.
Growing sunspot group 4551 is showing increasing complexity and an increasing risk for stronger solar flares.
A large filament is lifting off on the Sun’s northern hemisphere. Most likely, the associated CME ('solar storm') is not earth-directed.
(SDO AIA 304, SDO AIA 171/193/211 tricolor base difference)
Solar Synoptic Map
- W ➡️ half of the ☀️ disk dominated by (–) polarised coronal holes
- connection to 1 of them, ≈600 km/s near 🌎
- limited geoeffectiveness: wrong polarity
- sunspot group 4551: new spot 👀
- new spots in NE ↖️ 👀
- waiting for filament eruptions ☀️->🌎
Another possibly earth-directed filament eruption occurred on the southern hemisphere of the Sun.
(SDO AIA 304, SDO AIA 171/193/211 tricolor base difference, GOES X-ray flux long, e-Callisto radiogram)
Large filament eruption north of the large southern coronal hole. Possibly earth-directed. We'll have to wait for coronagraph imagery…
2026-10-10: Coronal mass ejection towards NW↗️ after M6.4 solar flare with fast earth-directed shock (360° halo, 1500 km/s). Shock arrival possible late on 11 October, early on 12 October (UTC day), uncertain. CME core will only graze or rather miss us.
