@dmay001

Professor at Memorial University

 St. John's
Joined August 2009
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The government’s “Benefit to Treasury” chart below shows about $340M in 2027. That line is NL Hydro’s share of Churchill Falls profit, not Treasury cash. However, the profit stays in the corporation unless it pays common dividends to NLH, which in turn pays GNL. #nlpoli
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However, Churchill Falls’ 2010 Long-Term Asset Management Plan, to rebuild the plant by 2041, left no cash for common dividends. The DCIA's (new MOU) dividend policy is still to be determined by NL Hydro and Hydro-Québec. Has one been agreed upon? #nlpoli
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The CPI numbers for September were released this morning. The CBC reports that Canada's inflation rose to 3.1%, driven by fuel prices. In NL, the inflation rate was 4.7%. Gasoline prices in September were 37.8% higher than a year earlier. #nlpoli
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Some unanswered questions about the latest CF MOU! The government says NL gets about $350M from Churchill Falls in 2027. By my estimate, only about $43M of it is owed to the Treasury. The rest depends on dividends. How much is guaranteed? Ask your MHA. churchillfalls.info/q1 #n
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Here's my forecast of how much money the new MOU (DCIA) will provide to the GNL Treasury in 2027. What's your opinion? Discuss your thoughts with others.
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Oil royalties were and are transformative. They are expected to account for about 19% of total GNL revenues in 2026-27. By contrast, this renewable resource is expected to account for less than 0.4% of revenues in the same period.
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The questions for people in Newfoundland and Labrador regarding the new MOU (DCIA) are: "What would you consider to be a fair deal?" or "How would you measure what's in the best interest of NL?" #nlpoli
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A friend has raised concerns about economic speak when it comes to discussions wrt the MOU. "Resource rents" of CF are the value of water to CF generation. "Well-being" is often associated only with health, but it refers to the quality of life.
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The resource rent from Churchill Falls is the amount by which the value the electricity could have fetched in a competitive wholesale market exceeds the full cost of producing and delivering it, including depreciation and a normal return on the capital invested in dams, turbines, generators and transmission facilities.
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Using Statistics Canada, Canada Energy Regulator, and NLH data, and guiding GPT 5.6, I estimated CF Resource Rents for Q1 at about $1.6B. NL users' share of these rents was about 8%; the remainder went to Quebec users. The GNL received 0.2% of the total as water rents and royalties.
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Payroll employment numbers released earlier this week by Statistics Canada show that in April, employment levels in Newfoundland and Labrador were virtually unchanged from the same month a year earlier. However, employment in the health care and social services industry continued to grow.
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Wade Locke, in the final paragraph of his Assessment of the CF MOU (Jan. 2025), reminded us that, although our sophistication has improved, HQ is more sophisticated, with “different long-term goals and interests”. He is correct.@GovNL
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We need to construct the permanent institutional capacity to develop a strategic framework, as HQ has done. We need credible alternatives (BATNAs) that align with intergenerational goals and prioritize NLers' well-being in the Canadian context.
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We asked GPT the question:" Are we ready to negotiate with Hydro-Québec? Its answer: The central question is not whether negotiations should occur, but whether the province has developed the strategic framework, institutional capacity, and credible alternatives necessary to respond effectively to a changing electricity-system environment.
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My reaction is: The GNL has not developed the strategic framework, the institutional capacity, or the credible alternatives necessary to respond effectively to a changing electricity-system environment. Therefore, negotiations should not proceed at this time.
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The latest monthly trade data for Quebec with the U.S. show growing dependence on U.S. markets and a widening trade deficit. Not shown is a blended shoulder-season price of about $ 55 CAD/MWh for imported electricity, compared to $ 2 CAD/MWh for CF power or $18 CAD/MWh under the MOU.
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Applied economic analysis depends on access to reliable data. My focus on the MOU and the IRC's Report is no exception. In my work, I requested monthly sales volume and value data for CF(L)Co from NLH. My request was denied. I am lodging a complaint with the PC. See churchillfalls.info/assets/P…
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It is informative to compare my Action Plan and MOU evaluation with the Independent Review Committee's Report. The GPT comparison is insightful. See churchillfalls.info/assets/P… . @GovNL @FinanceCanada @NLElectricity @hydroquebec
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Our website churchillfalls.info contains a lot of information about the Churchill River electricity developments, past and proposed. Questions may be asked in French or English and answered in your language of choice, @Hydroqc @FinancesCanada
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"Manna from heaven!" That's how one family member described the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador's increase in revenue from oil royalties, HST, and corporate income tax from provincially incorporated oil companies. Thoughts? @NLpoli
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