It is becoming clear that AGI is going to be as jagged as everything else about AI. We will see superhuman ability at narrow tasks happen one by one, with obvious gaps or lags in many others. When a “universal AGI” will happen is unclear, but a Jagged AGI-ish world seems likely.

If you want to get a glimpse of the future, even dimly, do this with your phone: have a shortcut to launch ChatGPT in voice mode. Pick a voice you like, first. It is still clunky, but you can absolutely see how it replaces the Siris of the world & also how AI agents might work.

I think ChatGPT with DALL-E3 is a bigger deal than folks think. Previous AI image generators required the user to be inspired, and use tools to make them real. ChatGPT does the creative work, for better or for worse. "Create a poster for a futuristic Pride and Prejudice movie."