Not all those who wander are lost | Reluctant member of technical staff

Joined September 2023
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If you are good at scoring on IQ tests, but not particularly imaginative, AI is in the process of making you obsolete.
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This take is really tempting to get sucked into. Yes, any individual task a human does, ai will likely be better at soon. And yet, for every task an ai has automated in my life, I’ve found 10 more to get ai to do and I’m busier than ever.
i don't think nearly anyone, myself included, has truly internalized there'll soon be a machine better than us in every single intellectual & physical capacity deep down we all share a feeling that our 'entrepreneurship' or 'taste' or... is special & safe. it isn't. it's over
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Schools and universities should be anachronisms. They should teach you ’outdated’ skills and shield you from calculators, computers, and AI. They should teach dead languages and doing things the hard way. They should do what the ‘market’ won’t do (preserve civilization).
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Replying to @__nmca__
Another example of what I find to be two very passionate AI communities taking past one another. The original assertion by Bender/Gebru/McMillan-Major/Mitchell holds: any internal structures we find inside a model are not grounded in the model's own perception and action and both rather are only learned from the patterns found in the linguistic forms that describe those worlds. As such, they reflect nothing more than what are the self-consistent patterns found in those linguistic forms. What Pierre and Natand others are talking about are compressed latent structures which are indeed present. But, using Plato's allegory of the cave, I would suggest that these artifacts are more like the flickering of the shadows from the light: there's a pattern, it's imprecise, and it's not directly grounded in what the world really is. And all that being said, transformer-based models remain next token predictors. The fact that they can yield surprisingly coherent results is splendid and useful. I'll return to something @aran_nayebi observed and so which I fully agree: alignment is important, because the shadow and the light are different things. But the open question remains as to if this is possible at all with our current architectures.
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It seems to me that "extracted value" as a function of AI (sorry i meant SI) capabilities is not only very sublinear but also has a ceiling. I think we are likely seeing to see a saturation not of capabilities, but how much value the enterprise/industry can extract, since the biggest source of friction is like dealing with people (and the physical layer) and bespoke enterprise infra/data. One way to improve this "value vs capability" scaling is to optimize the infra and increase margins (aka pace the frontier). I am personally happy with any model from this list: Opus 4.5/4.6/5.5, GPT-5.6, and Astra. I have only seen mind-blowing gaps in math, not coding, experimentation, or agency. Perhaps some improvements in creativity/writing too but not mindblowing. If you told me today that capabilities will stop increasing, I would not care. A higher DeepSWE/HLE/TB4 score by itslef won't resolve this and the idea that full enterprise/SWE automation is coming soon seems doubtful. Ergo, my speculation is many labs will focus on industries beyond SWE where capability, not integration, is still the bottleneck, e.g., bio, chem, or robotics to increase multiplicative factor of margin.
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True! When successful business owners pass away or even just retire, the company's profits fall.
"A study in Denmark found that the death of a CEO reduced a company’s profits by 13% on average within two years. When a board member died, by contrast, it had no discernible effect. Leaders, in short, are important." economist.com/culture/2026/0…
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It’s so freaking over
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ai exposes & amplifies human variance
This is the coolest thing ever, what. Obviously every employer should automatically scrape and verify my resume and website. Ideally all of my writing too, which is plenty to answer almost any interview questions they would have. This is a minor utopia, and you're whining.
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The most interesting argument is that we wouldn’t have developed physics if we’d had computers in the past.
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artificial general intelligence is not universal general knowledge
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It's important to know when you've psyopped yourself with an LLM. This is a really important skill in 2026. I had like 7K words of doomer takedown work I'd been whittling away at for a few weeks, typing it myself (i.e. human-written) but doing feedback in a really long Fable 5.1 session with tons of papers in it (which I read), dumping drafts in for feedback, etc. I actually knew the bot was gassing me up, but I let it go because the main goal was actually to just do all this work in Symbolic and exercise the product (and also to compare models inside Symbolic vs. in the chatbot interfaces), more so than to write a big thing. Anyway, I got this monster in really great shape (again, per the Fable session), with graphics and everything, but before publishing I fed it to a fresh Fable session and told it to have a go at it, and it cooked me lol. Then I went back and forth with the critique session a bit, and it subtly started psyopping me again about how I was really onto this or that important thing. It's a Real Problem.
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Holy fuck some analyst is about to have a very rough day lmao
BREAKING: A Morgan Stanley banker accidentally leaked an internal document listing over 100 deals its Asia investment banking division is currently pitching and working on.
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And as for what Erdős may have thought about some of his conjectures being disproved recently: "When he disproved a conjecture, he would work on modification of premises to get a positive result." So I think he would have said "How interesting! So now the question is..." 3/
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Still unsure why "Bel solved 100+ longstanding problems" was a big update for everyone. We knew from the Astra vs Bel chart that it could solve nearly half their curated open problems list. If anything I thought they'd have several times that amount by now.
Replying to @1717Mahesh @grok
Both? My brother in neurodivergence, there's been hundreds! (of widely varying notability).
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nothing new tbh Hegel will be laughing from Valhalla when the thesis of humanity and the antithesis of the machines synthesise - once again
Replying to @willdepue
we will resign ourselves to human communities with human art and human relationships, even if the AIs will make more compelling experiences in every way but we must be serious about the world we’re headed towards. do not be attached to your capabilities. they will soon disappear
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This just killed every startup. They automated burning all of your money and achieving nothing
my software factory uses 5-10B tokens a day 24x @DevinAI SWE-2 Max 6x Codex Astra Ultra 2x Claude Code Fable Max running in @zeddotdev
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The future is just people becoming progressively more infantilized and unresourceful and increasingly demanding of the state and others for bailouts but also resentful of any intervention that doesn’t go exactly their way. Back in the day teens much younger than her could raise their siblings and run a household. You’re all mentally ill.
Replying to @annakhachiyan
You expect a teenager to know how to raise a child?
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AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.
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What if instead of "pacing the frontier" we increased liability? Internalize the externality? Isn't that the starting framework if individual safety incentives don't match group incentives?
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Turns out most people don’t want to code slop web apps and solve millenium problems they just want to shop and make it easier to book trips lol.
I think Muse will beat ChatGPT and Claude for mainstream users. It all comes down to IG data. Muse fulfills a need that Claude / OpenAI can’t match. For regular users, both are a Google Search replacement. But Muse is IG search on steroids and soon people are going to realize how insanely useful this is. Google ranks based on popularity. IG data is billions of creators posting stuff they're experts in, in their very niche fields. I asked for trendy bars in NY and Muse returned reels from creators on the ground. No other AI can do this. Muse can even curate a feed. I wonder what’s next for that -- it’s already got me spending more time on the app than I expected. Very bullish.
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