Nature over Nurture 🔥 라스베이거스
Joined May 2014
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불빛-Bul Pit retweeted
AI predictions for next 6-9 months
-> Anthropic/ OAI fail to ban OSS in the US
-> Anthropic/ OAI continue to innovate product but stall on fundamental tech breakthroughs
-> SOTA Gemini 4 launches at 10x lower cost
-> Elon open sources Grok
-> Anthropic/ OAI ARR growth stalls as enterprises move from tokenmaxxing to rational token consumption/ OSS
-> slow realization in public markets that AI may not replace human labor in next 1-3 years/ has not had a fundamental tech breakthrough in over a year/ lacks ROI/ AI hyper and lab spend not durable
-> moonboy VCs/ hedge funds/ softbank continue to fund Anthropic/ OAI equity raises in private markets as public markets for them are now fully closed
-> CXMT, YMTC announce capacity expansions significantly above market expectations
-> hypers deliver good q326 results on first look but fail to show meaningful AI ROI, guide to "significant capex expansion in fy27"
-> broad realization in public markets the AI dream we got sold on is not anywhere close to realization
-> 10yr hits >5%
-> hyper bonds reprice >10%, CDS hit 3x current levels, and AI credit market dries up as market realizes GPU ABF was not a good idea
-> hyper equities reprice 30-50% lower
-> ORCL falls below $30 as rumors of bailout make the round
-> market realizes memory is cyclical and LTAs won't hold
-> 50% of korean traders get wiped within a week
-> hypers cut fy27 capex
-> semis reprice >80% lower
-> fed cuts >150bps to avoid recession
불빛-Bul Pit retweeted
So Fed does not raise rates in October.
Long end bounces into midterms
Long end drops before December FOMC
Fed raises in December.
Exactly what happened in 2018
불빛-Bul Pit retweeted
The Korean filmmaker Lee Chang-dong talks about his work in terms of exigencies: “Is this really necessary? Does this really need to be a film?” He’s referring not to the time, money, and labor necessary to sustain a feature-length film but to the social necessity of a particular story. “I like to think, both for me and the audience, What is an important issue that we’re struggling with right now?” he tells E.Tammy Kim. Lee’s most recent film, and his first feature in eight years, “Possible Love,” tells the story of a group of laborers who have recently been laid off from their factory jobs, and of the woman who is attempting to direct a documentary about their story. It is both a reflection on a real confrontation, from 2009, when a Korean car company fired a third of its workforce, and a tale of a violent betrayal which probes at the value of filmmaking itself. At the link in our bio, Kim spends time with Lee, and talks to him about his relationship to filmmaking. newyorker.com/magazine/2026/…
불빛-Bul Pit retweeted
AMD CEO Lisa Su just went after Nvidia's $4,000 AI box using a $1,499 machine the size of a lunchbox.
Holding it up on stage with one hand, she ran a model with 235 billion parameters live, with no data center, cloud or rented GPU behind it.
The surprise is the chip. Inside is AMD's Ryzen AI Max+ 395, which became the first x86 processor whose CPU and GPU draw from one shared pool of 128GB of memory. That one design choice lets a desktop handle models that once needed a server rack.
On Linux, 110GB of that pool can go to the GPU. An RTX 5090 offers 32GB. A 4090 offers 24GB. So this box has more than three times either card, in a case about as thick as a paperback.
The number that stunned the room: on DeepSeek R1 inference, the chip ran more than 3x faster than an Nvidia RTX 5080. A $1,499 desktop beating a $1,000 graphics card on real AI work. For a decade, Nvidia told the world that serious AI meant Nvidia hardware. AMD just made it a desktop item at half the cost.
Now the math. A heavy AI user today might pay for Claude Code Max ($200), ChatGPT Pro ($200), Cursor ($20) and Gemini ($20). That adds up to $5,280 a year. At that rate, the box covers its cost within months, then keeps running at no extra charge.
The setup: install Ollama, pull Qwen3 235B, and aim Claude Code at localhost. The interface stays the same. But nothing leaves the machine, there is no per-request bill, and no provider slows you down at 3am when you finally sit down to build.
This is where every AI subscription starts to look optional. Lawyers worry less about leaks to OpenAI. Developers stop staring at the token counter. Founders stop renting H100s for prototypes they abandon because of the bill.
Whoever gets there among the first thousand will own private AI consulting for the next two years.
If you're new here, @GeniusGTX is a gallery for the greatest minds in economics, psychology, and history. Follow along for more similar content.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The machine demonstrated (AMD Ryzen AI Max+ 395 / "Halo" platform with 128GB unified memory) retails for ~$3,300–$5,500 currently (AMD reference platform $3,999); $1,499 pricing applied to older/lower-RAM configs or promotions, not this spec.
liliputing.com/amd-ryzen-ai-h…
computingforgeeks.com/ryzen-ai-max-3…
techradar.com/pro/slowly-goi…
불빛-Bul Pit retweeted
Her name is Alice Walton.
She is the only daughter of Sam Walton, the man who built Walmart from a single store in Arkansas into the world’s largest retailer.
She never ran the company. She never sat on its board. While her brothers stayed close to the business, she turned toward art, museums, and quiet philanthropy.
That distance did not shrink her fortune.
In 2026 she remains the richest woman on earth, with a net worth estimated between $115 and $134 billion depending on the day the markets close.
Her stake in the company her father founded places her among the top fifteen richest people on the planet, man or woman. Only a handful of heiresses have ever crossed the $100 billion mark. She is one of them.
She was born in 1949 in Newport, Arkansas, raised in Bentonville, and graduated with a degree in economics. For years she worked in finance and ran her own investment firm before closing it and directing her attention elsewhere.
She built the Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art in her hometown and has given hundreds of millions to education, healthcare, and the arts. The public still mostly knows her as the quiet Walton daughter who stayed out of the spotlight her father created.
No public drama. No constant interviews. Just the largest fortune held by any woman alive, grown from a family business she chose not to run, and spent in ways she has mostly kept private.🌹
불빛-Bul Pit retweeted
The director Lee Chang-dong excavates the traumas of contemporary Korean history in starkly personal terms. newyorker.com/magazine/2026/…
불빛-Bul Pit retweeted
you would need cash to secure the put selling... If you're saying you use the shares as collateral you by definition are using margin, it's literally borrowing money to secure the put sale?
Leverage is leverage, let's be real.
