Founder. Helping business build and own their intelligence. Posts about AI and industry insights. 1x exit, ex- @Microsoft.

SF Bay Area
Joined December 2010
Very interesting that people are still stuck on it’s a stochastic parrot. Your job isn’t safe sir. Humans aren’t any different than stochastic parrots either we’re doing next word prediction in a different sense when given a problem. I give it 1 year.
Funny but no. LLMs are still stochastic parrots no matter how many loops you put them in. (/ragebait) The only reason they work so well for coding is that code is text that was designed for verifiability and composability. Math with Lean is also coding. (As soon as the supposedly supersmart model had to match the human text to Lean, it made errors.) Economic reasoning can be learned, but there is much more judgement involved, it's not a fully verifiable+composable system. Tapping into actual human expertise will help but will not "solve" economics.
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We really are on the curve here with ai2027. Security breach at @OpenAI.
We discovered a sophisticated recording device that was hidden inside one of our offices. We used our models to understand the device and where it had come from, identifying that a specific employee had planted it a few days earlier. We referred the matter to the FBI, and we’re grateful to the agents and prosecutors who moved quickly to make an arrest. The FBI’s investigation is ongoing and we will continue to support their work. At this time, we have no indications of this individual inappropriately accessing or exfiltrating model weights, source code, or customer data. The employee was terminated. We take protecting our technology, data, and people seriously, and as a matter of national importance. Our security program is designed to protect against a wide range of threat actors, from insider risks to cybercriminals to nation states, and this case is an example of how AI can help address these sophisticated security threats.
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This is a big deal, pace is accelerating but our response is human speed. With AI getting superhuman, privacy and security is at stake. We put our money, messages and identities behind mathematical locks, trusting that breaking them would take too long. Now imagine an AI spending a weekend finding shortcuts humans missed for decades, with a thousand copies searching alongside it. What happens if it finds a way through before we can change the locks? Question of how our data controls work is getting harder to solve.
Most of the recent math results were not reached by a swarm, the way Navier–Stokes was. I think that part got lost in the excitement around the release. OpenAI's unnamed internal model, which I'm going to call Aeon, reached most of them in one shot, from a single prompt, with no interruptions. This model did not even exist before the end of August, and it is still training. Notice how the returns are not dropping off? That chart is from a month ago. It is a log scale. What does Aeon look like now? On average, each result used three hours of thinking. Aeon was given 4000 problems to work on by OpenAI. How many more have been solved in the last three days? That number is not zero. It's like hearing notes in a song that is slowly rising. I don't think Pacing the Frontier was just about Hugging Face or hacking. They've seen how close we are to closing the loop, and as the hour draws near, their resolve begins to quaver. The last piece was model creativity, and I think that threshold was crossed internally by Anthropic and OpenAI in September. You see it in Opus 5.5, which gets it from Fable 5.5. You see it in the math results from Aeon. All that was needed to start the event was the ability for models to think of novel ways to improve themselves. That was the last piece. This is directly analogous to the ability to think of strange, alien ways to solve math problems: solutions so inhuman that they are difficult to express in existing human terms, so the proof winds up incomprehensible. I think these same kinds of alien solutions are now being applied to model improvements internally. That's what all this recent consternation is really about. They see the invisible frontier. And they see what is about to happen.
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We've got Fable 5.1 level intelligence, at 500 tok/s within in a month at 1.2x the cost. Do you feel the acceleration?
Ultrafast is rolling out today for GPT-6.1 Sol in the API, Codex, and ChatGPT Work. Near-Astra intelligence at up to 8x faster speeds than Sol Standard, so you can build as fast as the ideas come.
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Men will do anything but go to therapy. Are you happy in your marriage? Organically or chemically?
Palmer Luckey reveals the startup he'd build today: oxytocin doping to end divorce "I would try to end the tragedy of divorce with oxytocin doping for marriage counseling." "We understand mammal pair bonding pretty well. There's a lot of people who want to stay together. Most of the people who don't want to stay together should stay together, especially for their kids." "And we can, if people think SSRIs are fine, which they're not, but if they were, then oxytocin doping to stay together is definitely fine." "It's the mammal pair bonding chemical. There's things you can do to increase the uptake, and it's very well understood. Also, totally unregulated, which is great. Unregulated spaces are a lot easier to do. You can go buy a kilogram of oxytocin on Sigma Aldrich Chemical Supply right now, and if you do that, maybe you won't die alone." "It's pure biology. It's used for women who don't bond with their kids, and now for women who don't bond with their husbands. It's also used for kids with various neurological issues, some kids with autism who struggle with pair bonding." "The cool thing is it's a self-reinforcing loop. We understand that very well. Unlike most drugs, it doesn't form a chemical dependency. It actually unburdens you from a chemical dependency."
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Really wild to me how few people understand the implications of this. It’s literally the foundation of all markets. This with job uncertainty exploding, we’re in for a rough ride folks. Incredible technological change coupled with incredible economic hurricanes.
If you’re younger than 45, this is the first time in your life that you’re experiencing a real rising interest rate environment. The last time this happened was 1960 - 1980. This fundamentally changes the physics of the game in a way many won’t be prepared for.
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Future is here. AI driven research at @AnthropicAI's new wet lab. They had about 950 Claude agents search a huge DNA database. After 21 hours, one of them noticed a row of evenly spaced repeats sitting next to a known enzyme. No human had spotted it. Similar to CRISPR which is now the foundation of modern genetics. What this new one does is still unknown. Their lab is testing it now. This is a generational change. It's a 100x speed up in research. Implications if we go this route: The repeats that led to CRISPR were first noticed in 1987. The first CRISPR medicine, a one-time treatment for sickle cell disease, was approved in 2023. That's 36 years. Much of that time went into finding things and working out what they do. If AI shrinks that part from years to months, here's what could arrive sooner: > Antibiotics that work again. Treatments for infections that today's drugs can't kill. > One-time treatments for inherited diseases. More conditions that end with a single treatment instead of lifelong care. > Faster, cheaper tests. Results at the doctor's office instead of days of waiting on a lab. > Crops that survive drought and heat. Farming that holds up as the weather gets harsher. > Enzymes that break down plastic. They exist already. Finding better ones is a search problem. > A faster response to the next pandemic. Tests and treatments in months, not years. Humans still run the experiments and prove what's real. But finding the next CRISPR no longer depends on someone happening to look in the right place.
Claude has discovered a previously unknown enzyme system hidden in the DNA of bacteriophages. Beside the enzyme’s gene sits a long array of repeating DNA—a structure that looks somewhat similar to CRISPR. We don’t yet understand what this system does, but only a handful of known systems share its features, and all of them are able to cut, copy, and paste DNA. Historically, the discovery of such programmable systems has helped revolutionize medicine. CRISPR, for instance, is now the foundation of genetic medicines. But it will take much more work to learn what this system does, and whether it can be put to similar use. Read more: anthropic.com/news/claude-di…
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Roman solider in futuristic martian landscape. Opus 5.5 one shot, all code.
opus 5.5, animated pixel art wizard, pure code prompt shared below 👇
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Taking bets on @OpenAI launches a muse/instinct competitor agent on DevDay
Replying to @sama
(As a side note, getting ready for this DevDay is the first time I remember ever, in OpenAI history, saying "this is too much stuff to launch".)
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When machines do all thinking for us, and we do not check their outputs, it leads to very dangerous situations like these. International incident due to hallucination. What stage of takeoff are we in?
SITUATION DETECTED: A U.S. SOCOM analyst used AI to produce an intelligence report that hallucinated that a Chinese ship in the Middle East was carrying nuclear-weapons components. The U.S. military was preparing to board the ship before the error was caught, per CNN.
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If this holds up, and we're solving Millennium problems weekly, this is the clearest sign of takeoff. Models getting better at an unprecedented rate. @OpenAI and @AnthropicAI pulling away here.
OpenAI confirmed to the New York Times that they have made "substantial progress" on another Millennium Prize problem in the last five days, and are preparing to announce. The rumors for the last 48 hours have been OpenAI solved the Hodge Conjecture, and that Anthropic has solved the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture. Since Navier-Stokes rumors abound, so I was reluctant to post about either. However, OpenAI's statement to the NYT now gives the Hodge rumors some very serious support. In general people have not updated yet that the new unnamed OpenAI model, the one that finished training about two weeks ago, which I believe will be named Aeon, is massively better at math than Astra, which two weeks ago was the best in the world. Aeon solved Navier-Stokes in 88 hours, start to finish. Follow the trend line. That means everything is on the table. Literally everything. And this does not end with math. Please update. We are taking off.
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Are we getting a room temperature superconductor in the next week? Stay tuned and follow @sama lol
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GPT-6-Astra got live and took down all the other AIs. These launches are getting bold.
The stars are almost aligned.
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Hype is legendary. Let’s see if they deliver
The stars are almost aligned.
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Exactly the kind of work we do at @Practical_It. Find the workflows AI can automate for you, the best performance at cheapest price. You keep it.
The best AI automation is the one that generates the code and then gets out of the way. Determinism is a feature. xitter.cf/lg/status/209301287672…
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This is probably the GPT-3 moment for Robotics and embedded intelligence. Will have 10x the impact with its ChatGPT moment which based on the training chart, is ~6 months away. Gen-2.0 will be crazy.
Introducing GEN-1.5, a one-shot learner. It can learn new tasks in a few seconds. Show it what to do, and it generalizes. This capability emerged from pretraining on physical data at scale, as a step towards our mission of building general intelligence for the physical world.
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Palo alto, by all means should hold 5x minimum people in the same area. China's equivalent of their silicon valley, holds 16x more people, with hyper efficient mass transit. Instead we got boomers fighting the development of a basic suburban complex when they got their house for $3 and a sandwich 50 years ago.
“Is this Palo Alto or Manhattan” The “Manhattan” in question:
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This is how to win the public conversation on benefits of AI. Vast majority of people opposing datacenters or AI do not see the benefits. It has to be tangible for them. Benefits like: - Breakthrough medicine (like personalized cancer drugs) - Higher pay and more meaningful jobs at mass - Cheaper basics like water, electricity, and clean. - Fruits of abundance of intelligence, taking away from chores (home robotics, etc) - Advances in science that help us build the future we dreamed of, space economy etc. This will meaningfully shift the public opinion to the benefit of AI. We're still at the starting line, incredibly lucky to be present and building towards it.
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Ssshhh, don’t tell the secret 🤫
adulthood is saying “after this week, things should calm down” every week until you die.
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Hasn't committed any cybercrimes? meh.
Anthropic talking about a mysterious "MODEL 2" that is more capable than Mythos 5
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