Entrepreneur, data scientist, investor, and family man. // Former data science at Khan Academy, co-founder at Teza Technologies, Citadel HFT.

Palo Alto, CA
Joined March 2012
The sole legitimate purpose of an economy is to improve lives. It is not the purpose of a life to improve the economy.
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I did tell @tylercowen that if forced to pick a market price as indicator of the singularity, it would be sovereign debt yields. If the “gradual disempowerment” future is real, its way will likely be paved by very high interest rates.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
old dogs new tricks olddogs.ai
AI is a big W for 40-somethings. Old enough to have learned how to do things the right way, young enough to learn some new tricks.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Replying to @jessesingal
LLM that’s trained solely on Modest Mouse, Death Cab for Cutie, and The National and becomes too withdrawn and awkward to take over the world
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While I'd quibble with a few details of this presentation-- better to use Joules per completed task--batching and speed noramalizations are still enormous updates to my mental model. I've been reading these power comparisons for a long time. Kinda embarassed that I missed this.
This number is way off. You’re comparing one human brain to an entire data center capable of training new models. The actual answer is: IQ points per watt: Humans: 5 AI: 7 - 40 (!!) By my rough calculations the current AI is already served more efficiently than humans for equivalently intelligent work performed! A single gpu can produce outputs and parse inputs way faster than a human and can do many of such requests in parallel. A larger model generally mostly means you need more gpus to serve it, but that often also increases how many requests you can serve in parallel, so I’m reporting on the share of the serving system, and also normalizing for speed. Really a better way to measure and report it is joules per equally good completed task, as your formulation suggests we can likely add more watts to get more iq, which isn’t correct. I did some back of the napkin calculations based on the latest serving hardware and the most powerful open source models. But even given pretty generous assumptions it turns outout computers come ahead. For example the request is allocated approximately 60 W while running, but finishes a task in about one-seventh of the human time.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
It's worth pointing out that practically speaking, the alternative to a sane regulatory regime isn't "no regulation." We are experiencing rapid improvements in capabilities, have multiple providers with differing levels of safe guards, and are at the point now where small things are starting to go wrong. The scope of AI capabilities are growing rapidly, and the scope of possible damage is going to grow with them. Think for a second about what happens when the first actually bad and "politically gripping" incident occurs? Not Hugging Face, but something that makes the average person really scared. This isn't about extinction, think a human initiated, AI-orchestrated cyberattack that sabotages one piece of infrastructure that results in at least one person dying. The reaction will be violent. Our political system doesn't work well at proactively handling purely theoretical problems, but reacts very fiercely and sometimes irrationally when something bad actually happens. The August 2001 CIA memo "Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US" got little response, but buildings falling down changed the course of history. An industry whose wealth and power is widely resented, that resists even the most innocuous and common sense safeguards, and then causes a significant incident, will see a violent reaction. This will result in a regulatory regime designed in a moment of populist outrage by people with little understanding of what will help, whose primary goal will be crushing AI progress as an end in its own right.
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
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Extremely useful thinking: Dichotomies of bounded and unbounded, frontier and cheap; Reflexivity specific to unbounded. It should be everyone’s hope that the “unbounded” category revenue diversifies -> de-correlates -> derisks. Biopharma, materials science, etc.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Todd Beamer was the passenger on United Airlines Flight 93 who rallied fellow passengers to fight back against the 9/11 hijackers with the phrase "Let's roll" and stopped it from reaching Washington, DC. This is his daughter, Morgan, who was born 4 months after his death and went on to play women's soccer at his alma mater, Wheaton College. Imagine how proud he would be. 🇺🇸 #neverforget
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
This strategy won't pan out for hard tech. Investors need to care just as much as founders that more water actually falls out of clouds, electrons flow out of a power plant, lithium comes out of the brine, energy is stored in the battery, etc. The industrial tourists who would be just as fulfilled bidding up cartoon monkey JPEGs will not have the stomach for the ups and downs of building real-world companies, and founders building civilizationally important technology are going to get left stranded.
Had a growth investor at a very well respected VC firm tell me (in all sincerity and honesty), “My job isn’t to find great companies, it’s to find companies that will be marked up. TBH, what happens to these companies long-term doesn’t really matter.”
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Replying to @bgurley
Yes! But also we should do "five how's" in response to any talk of pacing and alignment.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Replying to @MollyJongFast
The facts no longer broadly support anti-datacenter arguments. Working class America was devastated by the outsourcing of manufacturing to China. You are now implicitly supporting the outsourcing of intelligence to China. This would be so much worse. No impact on people with fancy degrees and lots of money, but would be terrible for ordinary Americans. Working class Americans deserves a bipartisan consensus on this.
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Proud of the partners that have trusted us, proud of the work we’ve done, and we’re having a blast. AI done right is fun.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
efficient markets in shambles
JUST IN: NVIDIA's $12,930,300,000 acquisition of Hugging Face contains an easter egg. The number 129,303 is the decimal conversion of Unicode point U+1F917. The 🤗 emoji.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
The main motivation is that it allows us to scale compute. Typically, we think of scaling as data, params and CoT. Looping allows us to increase compute/token while keeping param sizes small
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Cloudflare, Vercel, Uber, LaunchDarkly, and others are building software factories. I looked at how they work, the results so far, and what's next: will agents be prompting us? igoro.com/archive/software-f…
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Trading and investing reveal all of your qualities, good or bad. Impatience, impulsiveness, fear, greed, ego, overconfidence, insecurity, indecision, stubbornness, discipline, humility, patience, self control, adaptability. Markets have a way of exposing all of it.
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Of course Rep. Ro Khanna bought Moderna $MRNA on 6/30
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
The Tesla that Jessica just bought cost $48k and has a range of about 350 miles. The one she bought in 2015 cost $135k, adjusted for inflation, and had a range of 270 miles. People who think they dislike capitalism don't know how good they have it.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Yes, this. Instead of pacing/pausing, we should figure out what gates ought to be cleared, and take as much time as we need to clear them—and no more. By analogy, we don't “pace” drug development, we do RCTs. You market your drug when it passes clinical trials, no sooner/later.
Really good to see this. IMO this ⬇️ is by far the best way to think about "pacing the frontier"—not as some fixed amount of time (e.g. "six month pause" or "go 10% slower"), but simply making sure that enough time is taken to meet a reasonable safety/assurance bar. If all parties do that—whether by choice or because they have to—then there you have it, the frontier has been paced.
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Jace Kohlmeier retweeted
Always has been
the bottleneck is increasingly knowing what you want
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