the more I learn… the more I realize how much I don’t know - Einstein. Partner of @aionanalytics
Joined January 2025
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Six sessions ago I timestamped our crash probability read on the S&P. Since then the Nasdaq has hit a new high, and the crash probability went up anyway. Breadth is worse. Credit volatility is moving while the VIX sleeps. 14 sessions left to find the fire.
My third article is live inside the Aion Terminal.
Which Drain the Sink Flows Into: Rotation, Liquidity and the High Beta Complex.
On October 6, with $SPX at a record close, I called a selloff into late October, a bottom this week, a V, and a Q4 everything rally. The first half of that script has played. This is the second half.
What is in it: the good, the bad and the ugly of the October flush. The one variable the market sorted the AI complex on, and who is already standing behind the names it sold. The full leaderboard inversion across three timeframes, and the afternoon the beaten-down groups led the table for the first time since the top.
The index moved a couple of percent. The leaderboard underneath it inverted completely. Enjoy!
Deep Inference retweeted
Probably not one that you want to miss...
Article 2 just dropped inside AION.
Reading Between the Strikes: The Dealer Roadmap to Year End.
What is in it: the full dealer map on $SPY and $QQQ through month end, the one structural change that printed this week that almost nobody noticed, two charts that are important, and the two numbers that confirm it, one on $QQQ, one on $VIX.
Plus a watchlist of seven names where sector strength and dealer positioning finally agree, pulled from a scan of the full board today.
The index books repriced three times this month. The year end destination has not moved once. That part is in there too.
Not a lot of screenshots going around right now, are there?
You think the goal is calling a number?
The goal is persevering, outperforming, and having a plan no matter how it plays out, so one level missing changes nothing. That’s the difference between a quant and a guy riding beta up and down.
I called every major turning point this year publicly, for free, and the thanks is guys like this showing up to argue about one level. That’s exactly why the research moved internal.
Here’s what it looks like on my book this year, on a 7 figure portfolio. Few can say the same.
Deep Inference retweeted
The cascade date we posted last week is today. Here is the $QQQ board at the open.
Spot $713. Net gamma negative $8.18B. First support sits right below at $710, a $1.12B wall. Below that the cascade shelf, the charm anchor and the heaviest wall are all stacked on $700.
No magnet below spot. The book has not built a true floor yet, just defenses.
Above, $715 is a breakout node. Reclaim it and dealers chase price up toward $720 and the $740 ceiling instead.
Deep Inference retweeted
Some of you are really losing it. Bigger pages panicking, declaring “there’s no edge,” and heading for the exits. Sign of the times.
“I can’t find an edge” doesn’t mean there isn’t one. Maybe you’re looking in the wrong places or lack imagination in how you structure trades. Options let you position for up, down, sideways, or nothing at all. Structure and price matter.
Learning to generate returns in tough environments makes you better. If you’re doing this long term, be beyond grateful you’re being forced to adapt in a challenging environment.
Anyone excusing your refusal to adapt is selling you complacency. Don’t hide behind “it’s not your fault.” If you refuse to learn, it absolutely is.
ADAPT. LEARN. The market filters out those who won’t. It is unforgiving.
Some of you are really losing it. Bigger pages panicking, declaring “there’s no edge,” and heading for the exits. Sign of the times.
“I can’t find an edge” doesn’t mean there isn’t one. Maybe you’re looking in the wrong places or lack imagination in how you structure trades. Options let you position for up, down, sideways, or nothing at all. Structure and price matter.
Learning to generate returns in tough environments makes you better. If you’re doing this long term, be beyond grateful you’re being forced to adapt in a challenging environment.
Anyone excusing your refusal to adapt is selling you complacency. Don’t hide behind “it’s not your fault.” If you refuse to learn, it absolutely is.
ADAPT. LEARN. The market filters out those who won’t. It is unforgiving.
Deep Inference retweeted
Dropped my first written article inside AION this morning. The floor window, the liquidity turn, the confirmation checklist, and the names I am watching while it builds.
One of the names was $MRVL. A member paid for his terminal subscription off that one heads up. Day one of the article existing.
The threads left the timeline. The work got deeper, it just lives inside now.
Code QUANT, 30% off, ends Oct 31.
$SPY l $QQQ
Deep Inference retweeted
"Next 5 sessions: average down 1.13%. Worst print, down 5.2%. Next 10 sessions: up 0.42%. Flat. Then it flips. 21 sessions out, median +3.31% with an 80% hit rate. 63 sessions out, median +4.77%, 80% hit."
"Seasonality says the air pocket is now. Positioning says it is dated Oct 20 to 23. The machine did not need the calendar to find it."
Mhm $QQQ
Even the calendar agrees with the book now.
$SPX in midterm years, from Oct 8 forward:
Next 5 sessions: average down 1.13%. Worst print, down 5.2%.
Next 10 sessions: up 0.42%. Flat.
Then it flips. 21 sessions out, median +3.31% with an 80% hit rate. 63 sessions out, median +4.77%, 80% hit.
That is the exact shape the dealer book has been drawing for three weeks. Soft pocket through late October, paid by year end.
Honest caveat, the sample is 5 midterm years and the terminal flags that itself. But the worst 63 session stretches on the board all started in windows that looked like this one.
Seasonality says the air pocket is now. Positioning says it is dated Oct 20 to 23. The machine did not need the calendar to find it.
My second article has gone live.
In this article I break down the current short term tail risks, my expectation on the coming months, and how I will be handling the week ahead.
For those on the inside, enjoy. 🤜🤛
Deep Inference retweeted
If you told me 12 months ago that the first US listed humanoid robotics stock would be valued at 2.5 billion, had options, and traded at NAV into merger, I would have assumed the world was in the midst of the 2nd Great Depression.
Congrats everyone.