DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny) header
DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny) profile picture

Former L/S at Credit Hedge Fund | Where's my arc, Paulie?

Joined October 2011
Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)Photo by DeepDiveDenny (@deepdivedenny)
There's a ~3pg. stretch in Predator's Ball with more value on building "culture" than there is in hundreds of lectures, books, and papers written on the subject. In essence, it boils down to 1) Pay your people really well, 2) Give them autonomy, 3) Make them feel like owners
17
8
5
118
41,180
Everyone thinking this is the NVDA bottom and that this’ll all blow over in a few days. Hint: a lot more stuff is going to come out and it probably will not paint NVDA or Jensen in a good light.
*TREASURY, PENTAGON PUSHED FOR MEGASPEED TO BE ON BLACKLIST: FT *US DELAYS MEGASPEED’S INCLUSION ON TRADE BLACKLIST: FT
2
5
463
I already closed my short given it’s down 10%+ since last Friday’s close but I wouldn’t be so quick to put all this in the rear view mirror. Prob short if it drifts up a bit.
1
81
Damage has been done -- the AI trade is cooked for a bit. Great Anthropic data point came out today and literally nobody cares. Everyone already died.
“Our Run-Rate Revenue was approximately $81 billion as of October 31, 2026, up $10 billion from September 30, 2026.” $10 Billion of incremental revenue. In a single month. Which included a 40% price cut. Uncharted territory.
2
11
693
Not hearing much from this crowd recently
Hey, at least all the people saying “stocks down, crypto up” will be proven right. Right?
5
336
Pretty much -- Jensen is going to have to fall on the sword.
Replying to @OnodaCapital
Democrats won on anti-corruption, anti-AI, and anti-billionaire. Here is their sacrificial lamb
1
10
546
Everyone praying this NVDA thing just blows over, but cats out the bag. Now you have board + dems in power....I think it sets a really bad precedent if he just gets out scot-free.
1
9
645
He had an affair. Whatever. It was with a Chinese spy. Whatever. He knowingly routed chips to China with knowledge of the U.S. government. I mean how many of these can you genuinely overlook. If you're the dems isn't this a free layup 2 for 1?
1
5
141
Now the dumbest people I follow (same ones who said red wave) are saying Jensen is human, should be given a second chance, and that he won't be fired / have to step down.
If anything think people are being too nonchalant regarding Jensen and NVDA news. My brother in christ, the poster child of the AI trade / America's number #1 export had an affair with a CCP agent and you think people need to chill?
6
36
2,399
If anything think people are being too nonchalant regarding Jensen and NVDA news. My brother in christ, the poster child of the AI trade / America's number #1 export had an affair with a CCP agent and you think people need to chill?
10
6
3
107
7,012
Seeing Cloudflare smash earnings and be up double digits after hours while the rest of my portfolio gets incinerated.
CLOUDFLARE $NET Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Revenue: $782.5M (Est. $739M) 🟢; +39% YoY 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.38 (Est. $0.34) 🟢; +41% YoY 🔹 GAAP EPS: $0.10 FY26 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $2.96B-$2.96B (Est. $2.87B) 🟢 🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.35 (Est. $1.28) 🟢 🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $462M-$463M Q4 Guide: 🔹 Revenue: $845M-$846M (Est. $798M) 🟢 🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.43 (Est. $0.38) 🟢 🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $156M-$157M Other Q3 Metrics: 🔹 Current RPO Growth: 37% YoY 🔹 Non-GAAP Oper Income: $137.1M; 17.5% margin 🔹 Free Cash Flow: $82.1M 🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $215.4M Key Updates: 🔹 Annualized Revenue: Crossed $3B Comments: 🔸 “We crossed $3 billion in annualized revenue with revenue of $782 million, up 39% year over year.”
4
21
881
I'm the moron that felt rates were topping and went long risk instead of TLT or TMF. AMA.
I cannot be bearish on a multi-month horizon when The Economist is topping rates. Thank you for your service.
3
12
660
granted was not anticipating the Anthro slowdown and OAI news a few days later which basically derailed everything
1
1
94
Look on the bright side; we'll be able to buy reasonably priced RAM and GPUs
1
12
378
Everyday checks stocks, stocks down, AAPL up.
2
8
762
I appreciate this insight after all related names are down 50%+
*CITRINI OVERHAULS THEMATIC MODEL BOOK, CALLS PEAK IN AI INFRASTRUCTURE CAPEX *CITRINI SAYS AI INFRASTRUCTURE ASYMMETRIC RISK HAS SHIFTED TO DOWNSIDE *CITRINI EXPECTS HIGHER COSTS FOR US DATACENTERS AFTER DEMOCRATIC MIDTERM WINS *CITRINI WARNS MACRO REGIME SHIFTING TOWARD LATE-CYCLE STAGFLATION TILTS
11
23
3
818
79,774
Hilarious these guys start trying to distance themselves from Trump the minute the ship starts sinking. All too predictable.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
2
9
570
I'm gonna be honest. Don't think you needed a prediction market for this one. You could've just talked to anyone at a gas station within the last 4 months.
This is my take too. Big win for prediction markets tonight.
2
16
802
Hey, at least all the people saying “stocks down, crypto up” will be proven right. Right?
1
1
7
893
Some of the dumbest people from crypto twitter and fintwit are saying Red Sweep. Observing.
You don’t have to go further than gas prices, inflation, war. What’s the rationale for Republicans winning anything?
5
28
1,707
Just funny to watch the same people who were praising prediction markets when Trump won now saying they're not accounting for *things*
1
3
249