Until death, all defeat is psychological.
temporal pincer manuver
Joined February 2015
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M. retweeted
The Future Investors presents the 40 Quality Stocks with the highest FCF margins (excl. SBC) in the market today 💎🚀
1. $APP | AppLovin - 62.2%
2. $SNDK | SanDisk - 55.6%
3. $ASML | ASML - 53.1%
4. $SKHY | SK hynix - 48.3%
5. $MA | Mastercard - 45.9%
6. $V | Visa - 45.2%
7. $MSCI | MSCI - 44.3
8. $ANET | Arista Networks - 44.1%
9. $MU | Micron - 43.3%
10. $PLTR | Palantir - 41.0%
11. $NVDA | Nvidia - 39.5%
12. $FTNT | Fortinet - 37.5%
13. $AVGO | Broadcom - 34.7%
14. $FICO | FICO - 34.3%
15. $VEEV | Veeva Systems - 33.1%
16. $ADI | Analog Devices - 33.0%
17. $ADBE | Adobe - 32.8%
18. $RMBS | Rambus - 32.2%
19. $BKNG | Booking - 31.7%
20. $BESI | BE Semiconductor - 30.6%
21. $TSM | TSMC - 29.9%
22. $SSNLF | Samsung - 29.8%
23. $FSLR | First Solar - 27.5%
24. $ADSK | Autodesk - 27.4%
25. $AAPL | Apple - 26.3%
26. $IDXX | IDEXX Lab - 26.2%
27. $CRM | Salesforce - 26.2%
28. $WDC | Western Digital - 25.6%
29. $KLAC | KLA Corporation - 25.5%
30. $TXN | Texas Instruments - 25.4%
31. $MANH | Manhattan Associates - 25.3%
32. $BSY | Bentley Systems - 25.1%
33. $DXCM | Dexcom - 25.0%
34. $VRTX | Vertex - 24.7%
35. $MEDP | Medpace - 24.6%
36. $RDDT | Reddit - 24.5%
37. $ABNB | Airbnb - 24.0%
38. $STX | Seagate - 23.7%
39. $TYL | Tyler Technologies - 23.0%
40. $PDD | PDD Holdings - 22.8%
Source: @KoyfinCharts
𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮
- Revenue & EPS est. next 3Y >8%
- Gross Profit Margin >40%
- Net Profit Margin >0%
- FCF Margin excl. SBC >22.5%
- Altman Z Score >2.6
- Marketcap >$10B
We hold 9 of these stocks in our portfolio 💎
How many do you own? 👀👇
M. retweeted
I keep on trying to understand why agents prefer one service over the other so that it’s more transparent how marketing to agents work.
So far it seems everything that has to do with code agents prefer services that define the entire stack the agent needs so that an agent can build it in one shot.
When it comes to services the same logic applies - any task that makes it possible to complete w/out a human in the loop - API first, good docs, no loop traps, agent checkout, programmatic payments.
The conclusion is that there’s an entire category of services that haven’t adapted yet to market for agents making the purchase decisions.
M. retweeted
I've been critical in the past of AI compute indexes and the willingness to price compute based on the spot rental price, but now that the AI reset is sinking into the repricing of AI buildout debt its time to realize that the cost of capital is what determines the price of compute.
The most important number in GPU pricing right now isn't $/GPU-hour. It's the gap between what a hyperscaler pays to borrow (~90bp over Treasuries) and what a neocloud pays (~1,100bp).
The cost of compute is now set by the cost of capital, and the spot rental rate no longer tells you much.
The price of an H100 isn't one number. The same chip in the same rack costs a different amount depending on whose balance sheet it sits on. A ~1,000bp funding gap is a structural cost advantage that no amount of operating skill closes.
For example, take one GPU-hour apart. Most of it isn't power or space. It's paying back the chip, the interest on the loan that bought it, and the return the equity expects. A $40–55k all-in GPU, 75% debt-funded, at ~7,000 utilized hours a year is a financing instrument that happens to do matrix multiplication.
As the +500bp on neocloud debt (10%→15%) adds $0.20–0.30 to the break-even cost of every GPU-hour, which is then added on to the rental price.
That's 8–10% of the H100 index, from a credit spread alone, driven almost entirely by the cost of capital.
That means that the compute spot index is a derivative of the AI infra debt credit curve and the squeeze on neocloud margins.
M. retweeted
Even for someone optimistic on AI in the long term, objectively Ant went from adding 10B rev per month to ~2-3B of rev per month. Growth has slowed significantly in real terms, it’s not just “law of large numbers” deceleration, it is actual slowdown. On 70B base their recent rate of growth is possibly <50% forward annualized, which is slower than the Hyperscalers entire businesses are currently growing (CSP AI biz growing much faster obviously).
Data indicates potential acceleration for Ant from Aug-Sept levels in Oct, and there are 1-off headwinds they have absorbed contributing to slower recent levels of growth.
But that the business can decel by ~8B/mo almost as quickly as it accelerated highlights the risk, and why mkt is so jumpy on datapoints.
Not irrational at all that AI stocks are down this much. Add in rates/debt markets, politics, supply chains, lots of reason for elevated discount rates.
For the bull case for AI supply chain stocks in the short term, you need to see:
- Successful Ant IPO / OAI fundraise
- Rates to calm down and appetite from debt markets to support current rate of issuance for a few more years as buildout > monetization.
- Blowout cloud earnings and positive EPS revisions
- A few more “Claude code” moments unlocking new TAM from better models / harnesses / applications to re-accelerate AI token monetization trends out of current lull.
The trend is no longer your friend unfortunately.
M. retweeted
33. Buffett describes a “normal” day
Q: "And my second question to you, Mr. Buffett, could you just give us some idea of what a normal day, how you would like to spend a reasonable, normal day and — working on the investment side of the equation, or analysis, or reading, or just to give us some flavor of that?"
WARREN BUFFETT: I just — I read a lot, and I talk on the telephone a fair amount. We have no meetings. We have no committees. We have no slide presentations. You know, we have nothing, I mean it — (Laughter)
And so I read a lot. I read annual reports. I read business publications. I could do it in way less time, but I enjoy doing it so I make it last, I mean, you know, like some other activities in life. The - (laughter)
So it’s — there’s really — it’s the most boring job to anybody watching it, but I’m in love with it, you know. And so I like doing that.
And I don’t like talking about it a lot, I just like to kind of keep up with what’s going on. Like I say, by this point in life I could filter out so much of that I would — I just don’t need to do that much of it.
But I kind of enjoy just seeing what’s going on vicariously through doing a lot of reading. And I spend some time on the phone, and I’m on the computer a lot playing bridge, and I get to do what I like all the time."
--
mf asked buffett "please share the flavour of the investing equation of ur day" dweeb ass question...foh
"I read, I play bridge on my computer, I count my money. I don't really do shit"
perfect answer
make enough money and all u want is peace, solitude, and a few loyal friends...
M. retweeted
X is often very noisy and I am easily enraged (hence preferring Grok Bot scrapes to scrolling). But it is also a new social vector where you can meet super interesting and brilliant people exchanging ideas. Since I've gotten more involved with posting, I've been fortunate enough to make new personal connections and even had really positive private exchanges with folks I've debated publicly. With the world and our workflows changing this fast, and X becoming a bigger place to exchange perspectives, it's very hopeful to have these interactions.
Yesterday I had the pleasure of meeting @TMTLongShort in real life and a few other new X friends for a “maxi-lunch”. It was awesome to put faces to the accounts, and I came away thoroughly impressed with everyone and with the quality of discussion. One of the best lunches I’ve had in a while. And I learned a lot, particularly about the maxi perspective!
Emotionally, I'd like to push back on it hard (Tower of Babel etc). BUT I am 1) a dreamer, and 2) a huge believer in technological compounding… and things are just moving really fast. So I'm choosing to suspend disbelief and keep a very open maxi-mind…
And to those of you who I’ve chatted with, thank you. Ok, back to praying to the mkt gods 😝
The truth is there are far fewer AI-maxis within the investing class than you might otherwise think.
Plenty of bottleneck bros. Lots of hyperscale truthers. Abundant semiconductor enjoyers. Infinite momo lovers.
But people who have actually glimpsed the future because they can think non-linearly and instantly understood Leo’s message back in mid-2024… an incredibly small handful.
The most fascinating part has been that neither Claude Code or Astra changed this.
The same people who can think abstractly before the proofpoint continue to be able to after. And everyone else still needs to be spoon fed.
I’d estimate within the TMT L/S community sub-5% are true maxis.
And no Coatue isn’t maxi. Neither is Gavin who I respect the fuck out of. But he’s rationally optimistic but cautious.
Maxi’s start with the assumption that models can be scaled up well past human intellect at a pace that the human mind can’t project and the economic value of that scale up is exponentially larger than existing gdp. Human bottlenecks are irrelevant as models get smarter.
And with that north star we work backwards because path function matters and we have to pay rent until the robots are made.
It’s a very different headspace vs starting with the premise that hyperscalers are likely to milk a couple hundred billion in cloud revs if this all goes to shit.
M. retweeted
$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE For GAI infrastructure trade, the thesis is very clear if you are using GAI to build value added tools and enhance your workflows every day. Rising interest rates and inflation and potentially over levered neoclouds add some haze, but nothing has changed the long term bull thesis. You got to eat your own cooking to know how it tastes.
$VLO $MPC $PSX $DK $CLMT For refiner trade, nothing has changed, and if anything the wars in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine are accelerating in the destruction of downstream and midstream assets.
M. retweeted
ALGUIEN HA CREADO UNA HERRAMIENTA QUE DOBLA CUALQUIER VÍDEO DE YOUTUBE A 100+ IDIOMAS CON LA VOZ ORIGINAL
Se llama Voice-Pro y hace esto:
→ Descarga el vídeo
→ Elimina la voz limpiamente
→ Transcribe todo
→ Traduce a 100+ idiomas
→ Clona la voz original
→ Redobla el vídeo entero
En menos de 2 minutos.
100% local y gratis.
Os dejo el repo en los comentarios :)
M. retweeted
说个听着挺渗人的事：你家那台 WiFi，其实没你以为的那么牢靠，真不是吓唬你。
有个开源工具叫 Airgorah，Rust 写的，底层借的是 aircrack-ng 那套东西，外面套了层图形界面，只能在 Linux 上跑。它能干啥，我摊开给你看：
1️⃣ 把周围 WiFi 的流量抓下来
2️⃣ 挖出某个热点底下都挂了哪些设备
3️⃣ 发断网攻击，逼设备重新连一遍
4️⃣ 截握手包，然后直接动手破密码
说白了，网络安全审计该有的那些功能，它差不多都齐了。
作者也把丑话摆在前头：只允许测你自己的网络，碰别人的 WiFi 就是违法，出了事自己担，别说没人提醒过。
🔗 github.com/martin-olivier/ai…
M. retweeted
The best AI design inspiration sites you need to save 🔖
- getdesign.ai/ - 𝙳𝙴𝚂𝙸𝙶𝙽.𝙼𝙳 files for AI agents
- posts.design - best of social post design
- loadmo.re - gallery of bold mobile websites
- recent.design - best of recent design, daily
- 60fps.design - UI animation & interaction details
- supahero.io - website hero section library
- navbar.gallery - the best navbar designs
- cta.gallery - call-to-actions that convert
- inspora.design - archive of recent visual design
M. retweeted
开源小螃蟹机器人 Jumper 太酷了：22 个自由度，又萌又灵活，能搬东西，还能跳跃。
创作者已把项目开源，自己就能动手搭一个。
github.com/KingKongRobotics/…
M. retweeted
She passed every AI safety test. She was lying.
KILL SWITCH — a Slopcore music video.
Made by AI. Zero human edits. Just prompting.
Huge love to @anabology for the inspiration. Your work made me want to join the Slopcore.
I added an irresponsible amount of film grain. 💙