I count what others feel | Prediction market portfolios | Sport·Math·Edge | Models, not magic | @CoinMarketCap https://nitter.cf/t.co/krp0rc5kzT
Joined May 2012
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You’ll all die if prediction markets keep building for spectators instead of traders
Stop showing us green PnL screenshots and cherry-picked big wins
We keep getting "smart wallets", copy trading built around two bets, and aggregators that just show the same odds from different venues
We need professional infrastructure: average entry odds, execution quality, cross-venue pricing, real liquidity comparison, position and risk management, and capital efficiency
Dont show us who got lucky. Show us where the price is actually better, how much we can execute, and what our real average entry will be
Another robotics benchmark? Not particularly interesting
The bigger idea behind @openroboto is the loop:
models compete to improve ->
shift builds a decentralized supply of physical-world data ->
that data can support better robot models and commercial datasets ->
the resulting activity can feed back into open research.
Now SN80 is expanding to Base and Robinhood Chain, extending access beyond Bittensor-native users
The real unlock is the bittensor:native ETF
Buybacks, staking and liquid staking matter because they give subnets more ways to build sustainable token economies around actual network utility
But the ETF is what can change the capital base around the entire ecosystem
This is a big deal for Bittensor subnets.
If commodity tokens can have buybacks without becoming securities, and liquid staking receipts for commodities can also remain outside securities treatment, it opens more room for subnet-native economic mechanisms.
Buybacks. Staking. Liquid staking. Incentives.
More ways for subnets to build sustainable token economies around real network utility.
The $TAO ETF is coming
Historical L2 is a big step for prediction market research
Finally you can study liquidity and execution instead of just price charts
But the real test is sports. NBA, NFL, Champions League and other sports markets have very different liquidity and execution dynamics
Historical L2 there would let you test strategies against the market that was actually available, not just the price that printed
Your AI assistant can now read Polymarket order books directly.
Point Cursor or Claude Desktop at our MCP server and ask: "What was the depth 10 seconds before settlement?" — it answers from a 1-second, full-ladder archive.
Docs & setup: polyorderbooks.com/polymarke…
The strongest crypto projects are the ones where the product makes sense before you even talk about the token.
Prediction markets, perp DEXs, AI agents- real users, real activity, real revenue
The token should capture some of that value, not be the entire reason the product exists
even outside of bittensor, we're seeing a shift in sentiment around investors expecting crypto companies to have a working product, users or revenue that can support a token.
its no wonder that 99.8% of tokens ever deployed, has gone to zero.
L1/2s, perp dexes, casinos, exchanges etc. with tokens have historically performed better because of their ability to generate revenue outside of ponzinomics.
lesson in that.
Argentina vs. Benin. 6 de octubre. El Monumental
El ultimo partido de Messi con la Seleccion. Las entradas se agotaron en 16 minutos
Messi es todo para nosotros
Ya vivimos una vida entera de momentos inolvidables con el. Ahora toca estar ahi para el ultimo
Foto de 2022
"Smart Money" is now 3 picks?
This is a circus
Three bets, all winners, at 79c, 65c and 70c, and suddenly we’re supposed to believe there’s an edge
Show the full distance. Thousands of trades. Entry prices. Stake sizing. CLV. Drawdowns
Three winning picks tell us almost nothing about whether the strategy actually has an edge
Three picks are marketing. A long enough track record is evidence
Somewhere right now, someone is getting paid to write this marketing copy instead of getting fired for it
16 wins, 1 loss. 94% win rate. +$17k
Then they slap an "elite AI agent" on top of it and call it an edge
>> No average entry odds
>> No stake sizing
>> No bankroll
>> No CLV
Give a squirrel a tennis model that blindly picks 90c favorites and it might produce the same result over 17 trades
If you want to prove an edge, show everything. Not the AI story. Not the green PnL
You have no idea how hard we laugh when another copy trading, AI or smart wallet startup shows up with PnL as the entire thesis
Everyone is fighting over the ~$30B US NFL market
Meanwhile, the global sports economy is approaching $1.65T in 2026, with football alone approaching $1T
@magicmarkets is building prediction markets for the global sports economy, not just one domestic league
US prediction apps ignore five billion fans
Every major prediction launch targets the same market.
US users.
US licenses.
Sunday NFL schedules.
If you open those apps from Europe, you hit a wall.
Or a soccer tab with zero depth.
American platforms treat global football like an afterthought.
Books open late.
Asian handicap lines rarely exist.
@magicmarkets built the order book where global volume lives.
No domestic geoblock.
Deep liquidity across Premier League and Champions League fixtures.
Designing for one domestic audience ignores the rest of the planet.
Does your book trade the planet, or just one border?
Analytics tell you where to look
The real edge is checking whether the team’s claims match what is actually being built
TaoFlows gives you a shortcut to researching subnets across bittensor:native Bittensor. Start with the analytics, then go deeper: dashboard, Discord and GitHub. Come back to X and see how the team's claims hold up.
Build your conviction list. Follow it. Closely. Make your first calls. Find your own path. Let's dTAO.
I was looking at the Champions League winner market on @outcome and the concentration jumped out
The top six outcomes already account for 84% of the title probability
That leaves just 16% for everyone else
Outcome is pricing the Champions League as if the field has already collapsed to six teams
That is a lot of certainty this early. One of those six can still win the tournament without this distribution being right
Barcelona NO
outcome.xyz/markets/sports/q…
I wanted to see what the market actually looks like inside @allways_io
The matrix puts SOL and TAO against different assets, while USDC is broken out by network: Ethereum, Solana, Base, Arbitrum and Polygon
For example, the SOL/USDC Solana market shows 115.19 USDC per SOL, with the order book and market depth right there
So you can compare the available pricing for the asset and network you actually want, instead of looking at one route in isolation
1,300 creators is a meaningful milestone
Bitcast is building creator marketing around performance, not follower counts:
projects set the brief, creators compete to generate attention, and rewards follow verified performance
That turns creator marketing from a fixed-fee service into a programmable market
Prediction markets give you the probability of an event
Numinous maps what that probability is connected to:
the other events it can affect, the causal mechanisms between them, and the companies carrying the resulting exposure
That turns a prediction-market signal into an equity signal
Fragmentation alone is not the edge
The edge is identifying the inefficiency it creates, why nobody has arbitraged it away, and whether vertical integration actually captures the spread
I live in Argentina.
I watch Argentine football
This is my league
And I rarely see a prediction market with a real board for Liga Profesional matches
@magicmarkets does
Barracas Central vs Independiente Rivadavia is live
Lanús vs Estudiantes is next. More Liga Profesional markets are right there
That is what I want from a prediction market: let me trade the football I actually watch
I opened @allways_io to see how a bittensor:native -> BTC transfer actually looks
The first thing I checked was the quote
You can see the live rate, price history and order book before committing anything
That is the part I find useful: you can see the route you are about to take before you commit any funds
Nothing moves until you reserve the swap and send it yourself
