I run the numbers on NFL props, TD odds and DFS value every week, and I post my misses too. Sunday autopsy every Monday. Numbers first, hot takes second. Follow if you'd rather know than guess. Let’s #connect

Baltimore is a home dog to Cincy this week. Vegas was pricing in a coin flip before anybody said 50/50 out loud.

Brian Robinson's out and Atlanta's plan B is Khalil Herbert off the practice squad. Bijan's 41% to clear 80 rushing yards against SF, and I think that's light. Gibbs gets the ownership, Bijan gets the whole backfield.

Trae and AD start together and Toronto still wins this about three times out of four.

The champs go to Boston tonight and I'm taking the Celtics. Six-point game, and it won't feel that close.

Charbonnet's out and Kenneth Walker gets to run at his old team Sunday night. He's 33% to hit 100 rushing yards, best of any back this week. Sunday night in Seattle might be the Walker show.

I do a lot of things, but I decided to pull off the side of the road because I heard there was a weigh in coming up. I can literally hear folks betting on folks coming up guessing how much weight these fisherman bring in. Perhaps one day I branch out to #fishing

The ankle scare lasted exactly one news cycle. Jefferson's fine, start him and stop refreshing.

A 3:25 kick in Vegas means Puka managers get to sweat this one out until about 2pm Sunday. Have the pivot ready.

Ravens are only laying 1.5 at home to Cincy. The market's already halfway to pricing Lamar out.

Everyone says don't overload GB at DET, then builds around it anyway. Fair. Jordan Love at $6,000 is the cheapest 24 points on the board, and Higbee at $3,500 pays for everything else.

Warren sits again and Keenan Allen keeps soaking up the short stuff. 3+ catches in Minnesota is about 84% for him.

Egbuka doubtful makes Sunday the Godwin show. He's about a 72% shot at 3+ catches in Carolina.

Loveland was already the Bears tight end who mattered. Now he gets the whole room to himself.

Breece Hall is questionable and ESPN still has Braelon Allen at RB29. I've got him RB17. Jets are laying 4.5 at home to an 0-5 Miami team. Guess who gets the fourth-quarter carries.

At 5pm I said it'd be Maxey's night. At halftime, down 24, I wrote Philly off. Maxey dropped 32, they came back from 29 down and won by 8. I'll take being half right.

Good to see the thumbs up from Kmet. Loveland is the Bears TE1 the rest of the way.

Sixers by a bucket looked fine at 5pm. Cleveland went into the half up 69-45 in LeBron's Philly debut. That bucket is going to need a lot of help.

Allen starts through the knee. Embiid and Allen both sit at 7.5 rebounds tonight, and there aren't enough misses in that paint for both overs.

LeBron and Jaylen Brown get the Philly home debut. Maxey gets the ball when it matters. Sixers by a bucket, and it ends up being Maxey's night, not theirs.

Saquon is a sit Monday night and I'll die on it. ESPN has him RB12, I've got him RB33. Eagles are 2-4, getting 4.5 at home to Dallas and implied for 20. Name value doesn't block anybody.