@dbull888
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must remain delusional
Joined June 2025
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Warsh is just talking hawkish with no intention of starting a real hiking cycle IMO
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh lays out the state of the economy as the Fed raises rates by a quarter point: growth remains solid, spending is resilient, productivity is strong and capital investment is robust.
But Warsh warns uncertainty remains elevated, "owing in part to geopolitical developments," even as job gains keep pace with the workforce and unemployment changes little.
The sticking point is inflation, which Warsh says "remains elevated."
"Today's policy action will support a timely return to the committee's 2% goal."
Trump is fking unhinged. Remove him from office I’m not even joking. I used to be a big Trump supporter also
I might just full port $TTWO now and sell into the GTA 6 release in November
I've never posted about this name, but Lahontan Gold $LGCXF is my #1 mining idea today and one of my top holdings.
$106M enterprise value sitting on a project I model at $386M after-tax NPV at $4,000 gold. And that's the easy rock only. The other 62% of the resource is locked in harder rock at double the grade, so the market values it at zero. My estimate if they unlock it is $723M. Tests are running now.
I rebuilt the Santa Fe DCF off the PEA's own production schedule and unit costs, then repriced it to $4,000 with capex +30% and opex +15% for inflation. 41% IRR. ~$1,451/oz AISC. ~62% cash margin. Gold is $4,390 today so I'm using ~10% below spot, which I think is conservative. My actual view is we see $5,000 gold again soon.
Worth mentioning... this is my model off the 2024 study repriced to today's gold price. An updated one is overdue that will use a bigger resource and current costs. I'll update these numbers when it lands.
This was already a mine that's getting restarted. 359koz of gold came out of Santa Fe before it shut down in the 90s. Roads and power are there. It's ready to go.
The CEO is strong and the board is also stacked and includes the CEO of West Red Lake Gold, who is restarting an old mine in Canada right now with the same playbook.
EV/oz of $44 on 2.385 Moz. Every $100/oz on gold adds $20-37M of NPV.
My bull case gets fully diluted NAV to $1.24 against $0.27 today.
The bear case is they have to fund a ~$180M build off a $117M market cap. IMO all of the risk comes from the price they end up financing at.
Size accordingly. NFA of course.
I still think $VELO remains one of the most compelling small cap opportunities out there.
You just need to be able to stomach high volatility and be okay with occasional dilution.
Having a mid life crisis. Suddenly want to quit my job and pivot to something else.
MBA? Backpack Asia for 6 months? Buy a Porsche? Do nothing?
lol the market is buying Warsh’s hawkish stance hook, line, and sinker.
Cmon guys. I thought you were smarter than this.
This is a buying opportunity
