Market Technician. Active Trader. Passionate about Investor Education. Part-time 🏀 coach. Father to FOUR boys. Co-founder of @MarketScholars 👨💻🎙️📈💰👨🎓
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Joined October 2010
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I’m out of town today and tomorrow taking in the great Fall sights in the Utah mountains so there’s no new Market Outlook, Market Outlook Live, or Free Friday video this week.
I’ll be back Monday, October 19.
Go Cougs! Beat the Irish 🏈
Tonight's #MarketOutlook is at @MarketScholars. Link in reply 👇
Discussed: $DELL's downgrade met hot core CPI. $SMH fell 3.98% despite lower closing yields.
Which of tonight's five Preview charts best explains the damage?
This is graphic is so true. The middle section started with the muffed punt and extended through the fake punt failure into ND’s go-ahead TD in the 4th and then BYU throwing an INT. 🤪😭😤😵🥴
David Settle, CMT retweeted
Bro I’m fr in tears seeing the respect between Marcus Freeman and Kalani.
Marcus looked up in the stands and told Kalani “this is because of you”.
Kalani looked at Marcus and said “I respect you and your program so much brother”
THAT is what its all about.
Go Cougs! 💙💙
David Settle, CMT retweeted
It's often said that BYU is a special place. As a former player there, Zubin Mehenti asked me why...
#GoCougs
#NDvsBYU
#BYUvsND
@BYUfootball
Tonight's #MarketOutlook is at @MarketScholars. Link in reply 👇
Discussed: $DELL's downgrade met hot core CPI. $SMH fell 3.98% despite lower closing yields.
Which of tonight's five Preview charts best explains the damage?
🤖 Made with AI
Free Basic unlocks tonight’s Playbook at @MarketScholars:
marketscholars.com/market-ou…
Healthcare found buyers as $XLV gained 2.53%, but chips, banks and equal weight all fell.
Can those three hold gains together tomorrow while more stocks join the rebound?
For us to MATCH the record 7-year (or 364-week rolling) return from the late 90s off the COVID low, $SPX would need to close at 7,975 by next March. That's only a 2.25% gain from current levels.
Again, that would just MATCH the highest rolling 364-week return EVER and exceed the current #2 return of 231.17% coming off the 1982 secular bear market low and the current #3 return of 230.05% coming off the 1949 secular bear market low.
It also exceeds the current #4 return of 196.16% going into the 1987 correction and the current #5 return of 185.06% coming off the 2009 secular bear market low.
Catching a theme here?
The previous top 5 7-year returns were EITHER coming off the last 3 secular bear market lows since 1920 OR the other 2 were "blow-off top"-type moves where one hit a CAPE ratio of 18 (1987 - which was nearly TRIPLE the CAPE at the low in 1982) and the other was 44.5 (1999).
We're not coming off a secular bear market low right now - it's been over 17.5 years since our last one. (Yes, I know people think COVID was a dramatic secular bear market low. SECULAR bears produce NEGATIVE 10-year returns. The 10-year return at the low point in March 2020 was still +95%.)
So, that pretty much means we're in a "blow-off top"-type move. The 2000 move lasted pretty much 3 YEARS before peaking (1st chart). The 1987 move lasted 5 more MONTHS (2nd chart).
No, I'm not short right now. But, you don't have to be short to recognize the maturity of the trend. Bear markets don't start overnight. It's a process with multiple EASILY identifiable stages.
Keep in mind, the longest "bull market" on this list included a 19.92% decline in 1990 and a 19.31% decline in 1998 with an extended run below the 200-day SMA that started in March 1994 that didn't completely end until December of that year.
The current "bull market" had an 18.9% decline in Q1 2025.
The reality is these post-correction moves on $SPX last a couple of years - with individual exceptions, of course. They RARELY last 4-5 years without another extended run below the 200-day SMA (correction).
For example, within the current SECULAR bull market, there have been 7 "bull market" rallies before the current one that averaged 23 months in length with an average 71.1% gain.
March 2009-April 2010 (13 months at 79.93%)
July 2010-May 2011 (10 months at 33.35%)
October 2011-May 2015 (43 months at 93.85% - Thank you 0% Fed Funds and QE3!!)
February 2016-September 2018 (31 months at 60.23%)
December 2018-February 2020 (14 months at 44.02%)
March 2020-January 2022 (22 months at 114.38%)
October 2022-February 2025 (28 months at 71.77%)
Currently:
April 2025-now (18 months with a peak at 56.92% so far)
In fact, when you look at the last 3 rallies, they've combined to produce the second biggest 6.5-year rally in $SPX history - just 2% less than the record in the late 90s.
If we hit March 2027 with the average "bull market" return of 71% off the April 2025 low, then the 7-year move off the COVID low would be 269.88% - easily ABOVE the prior record from April 1993 to March 2000 of 246.06%. Our CAPE ratio, which is now at 41.85 may very well eclipse what we saw in late 1999.
That move in the late 1990s sparked a 10-year return from March 2000 going forward of -47.4% - nearly as big as the 65% drop from 1929 to 1939. The 3rd secular bear cycle since 1920 hit a 10-year drop of -33.1% from 1964-1974.
Here's hoping we squeeze as much as we can out of what's left in this mature secular bull cycle as well as the current "bull market" run off the April 2025 low.
David Settle, CMT retweeted
Keep in mind, the longest "bull market" on this list included a 19.92% decline in 1990 and a 19.31% decline in 1998 with an extended run below the 200-day SMA that started in March 1994 that didn't completely end until December of that year.
The current "bull market" had an 18.9% decline in Q1 2025.
The reality is these post-correction moves on $SPX last a couple of years - with individual exceptions, of course. They RARELY last 4-5 years without another extended run below the 200-day SMA (correction).
For example, within the current SECULAR bull market, there have been 7 "bull market" rallies before the current one that averaged 23 months in length with an average 71.1% gain.
March 2009-April 2010 (13 months at 79.93%)
July 2010-May 2011 (10 months at 33.35%)
October 2011-May 2015 (43 months at 93.85% - Thank you 0% Fed Funds and QE3!!)
February 2016-September 2018 (31 months at 60.23%)
December 2018-February 2020 (14 months at 44.02%)
March 2020-January 2022 (22 months at 114.38%)
October 2022-February 2025 (28 months at 71.77%)
Currently:
April 2025-now (18 months with a peak at 56.92% so far)
In fact, when you look at the last 3 rallies, they've combined to produce the second biggest 6.5-year rally in $SPX history - just 2% less than the record in the late 90s.
If we hit March 2027 with the average "bull market" return of 71% off the April 2025 low, then the 7-year move off the COVID low would be 269.88% - easily ABOVE the prior record from April 1993 to March 2000 of 246.06%. Our CAPE ratio, which is now at 41.85 may very well eclipse what we saw in late 1999.
That move in the late 1990s sparked a 10-year return from March 2000 going forward of -47.4% - nearly as big as the 65% drop from 1929 to 1939. The 3rd secular bear cycle since 1920 hit a 10-year drop of -33.1% from 1964-1974.
Here's hoping we squeeze as much as we can out of what's left in this mature secular bull cycle as well as the current "bull market" run off the April 2025 low.
Keep in mind, the longest "bull market" on this list included a 19.92% decline in 1990 and a 19.31% decline in 1998 with an extended run below the 200-day SMA that started in March 1994 that didn't completely end until December of that year.
The current "bull market" had an 18.9% decline in Q1 2025.
The reality is these post-correction moves on $SPX last a couple of years - with individual exceptions, of course. They RARELY last 4-5 years without another extended run below the 200-day SMA (correction).
For example, within the current SECULAR bull market, there have been 7 "bull market" rallies before the current one that averaged 23 months in length with an average 71.1% gain.
March 2009-April 2010 (13 months at 79.93%)
July 2010-May 2011 (10 months at 33.35%)
October 2011-May 2015 (43 months at 93.85% - Thank you 0% Fed Funds and QE3!!)
February 2016-September 2018 (31 months at 60.23%)
December 2018-February 2020 (14 months at 44.02%)
March 2020-January 2022 (22 months at 114.38%)
October 2022-February 2025 (28 months at 71.77%)
Currently:
April 2025-now (18 months with a peak at 56.92% so far)
In fact, when you look at the last 3 rallies, they've combined to produce the second biggest 6.5-year rally in $SPX history - just 2% less than the record in the late 90s.
If we hit March 2027 with the average "bull market" return of 71% off the April 2025 low, then the 7-year move off the COVID low would be 269.88% - easily ABOVE the prior record from April 1993 to March 2000 of 246.06%. Our CAPE ratio, which is now at 41.85 may very well eclipse what we saw in late 1999.
That move in the late 1990s sparked a 10-year return from March 2000 going forward of -47.4% - nearly as big as the 65% drop from 1929 to 1939. The 3rd secular bear cycle since 1920 hit a 10-year drop of -33.1% from 1964-1974.
Here's hoping we squeeze as much as we can out of what's left in this mature secular bull cycle as well as the current "bull market" run off the April 2025 low.
Free Friday at @MarketScholars: free Basic unlocks tonight’s complete video + written Playbook.
marketscholars.com/market-ou…
