pollster, focus group moderator, not much else
CA or DE
Joined February 2009
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David Binder retweeted
I need to explain why this poll is bullshit. California does not have a Democratic gubernatorial primary. We have a primary where all candidates run on the same ballot, every voter gets a single vote, and whichever top two candidates get the most votes, advance regardless of party (or percentage of the vote).
So, you will have Republicans and non-major party candidates on the same ballot with Kamala. You will have non-Democrats voting. To do a poll of Democrats of only a few Democratic candidates is not a proper poll. It does not properly measure the electorate.
About one million additional ballots counted in California since wednesday AM; the new 1mm are about 2 points more Democrat than election night returns; Prop 1 also two points higher in the new million.
David Binder retweeted
You can’t win or lose in the count. It’s not a football game with an outcome yet to be determined. It’s the slow unwrapping of a present, the awaiting of knowing the actual and unchangeable state of the world.
David Binder retweeted
A reminder that there’s no horserace aspect to counting votes. No one “pulls ahead” in the count or “makes up ground” or “loses their lead” in any real sense. It’s just an artifact of the process, the order in which votes are counted, an order part mandated and part random.
David Binder retweeted
Can’t stress this enough: in heavy vote by mail states (of which there will be more this fall), it is EXTREMELY TYPICAL for results to shift several points in the days/weeks after E Day. We (especially press) HAVE to normalize that therr might be a call in some states for a while
McEnany said "the system is supposed to" produce a winner on election night. FALSE. That’s the tradition — but it’s not required by law & it's not what the system is designed to do. This is part of the WH effort to set unrealistic expectations for November cnn.com/2020/09/12/politics/…
This may be the right take, but important to hold off on "polls were wrong" stories until after all the CA ballots are counted.
The polling average had no on the recall at a 16-point advantage. As of writing, the margin was more than 27 points. Some discussion of why the gap was wide — including that at one point it wasn't.
washingtonpost.com/politics/…
CA recall results was about winning independents as well as motivating Dems. Our polling showed vaccinated independents voting 33 yes, 67 no. Unvaccinated independents were 90 yes, 10 no. but the vast majority of independents who voted in CA recall were vaccinated.
David Binder retweeted
ding ding ding
one quibble and one caveat:
quibble: it’s doesn’t just energize Dem voters, it’s actually the rare message that both motivates and persuades.
caveat: november 2022 is very. far. away.
The big California win shows Dems can energize their voters by leaning hard into prosecuting the case against GOP anti-vax, anti-mask derangement. Dem strategists tell me this is showing signs of galvanizing Dem voters the way Trump himself did. My latest:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
David Binder retweeted
Yup - a lot of factors played into increasing D turnout and I think if there is anything to learn from this election it will come from studying that. But it was definitely the strategy from Day One.
Afghanistan updates: 1st US-facilitated evacuation of Americans since US forces departed - ABC News - abcn.ws/2VUShKQ via @abcyogaforkids
question on errors in 2020 polling: was underrepresentation of those voting straight Republican ticket specific to Trump being on ballot and therefore less of a 2022 issue, or a permanent problem based in lack of trust of pollsters and all institutions?
politico.com/news/2021/07/18…
Likely to have opposite impact — will stoke Dem base who are aghast that he willfully undermines confidence in the democratic process of free and fair elections
And do you think he won’t be challenged in such an effort? A new era begins today.
Brace yourselves: Several strategists today suggest ""Donald Trump is not going anywhere.'' Discussion now on @FoxNews: Trump aims to be "1st president since Grover Cleveland" to make a comeback...if he saves the GA Senate seats, "he sets himself up for another run in 4 yrs."
