Consultant and industry commentary with @Citeline @evaluatepharma, tracking and analysing major biopharma trends. @TimperleyHockey at the weekends.
Manchester, England
Joined February 2012
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More recent launches are inherently lower as peaks often outside the 2023-28 window, but the general observation definitely holds true. More approvals but not necessarily higher value, and prediction for 2024 class suggests trend continues. More here: evaluate.com/thought-leaders…
While the number of new therapeutics approved by the FDA last year hit a high, the expected overall commercial value of these therapeutics is moderate - find out more in this annual analysis by authors at Boston Consulting Group bit.ly/3SnlWqq
Daniel Chancellor retweeted
Nordic life science companies have done well in the past decade, @Citeline’s data shows. @SwedenBIO @NLSDays nordiclifescience.org/a-posi…
Creative use of @evaluatepharma data to show post-approval R&D spend exceeds that required to reach the market for the subset of 2026 IRA drugs. The economics of running post-approval studies, fully exploring patient benefit, is jeopardized by IRA and shorter drug lifecycles.
Up next in Medicare negotiation: Manufacturers submit data to CMS on the economics of selected drugs. As a benchmark, @ATIAdvisory estimated revenues and R&D spending. Numbers are eye-opening! 1/10 @DusetzinaS @MarkMiller_DC @peterneumann11 @ProtectOurCare
atiadvisory.com/resources/fi…
First tranche of IRA drugs to be negotiated. Like everyone else, my predictions had some hits and misses - it looks like CMS is not in the business of predicting when generics/biosimilars will be available, despite it being a key criteria for eligibility. hhs.gov/about/news/2023/08/2…
Provocative to characterise spend on negative trials or discontinued assets as failed R&D, but an interesting case study and worth extrapolating the lessons to broader cancer R&D, and beyond. Tempted to dive into @evaluatepharma data and spend on other notable drug classes.
$50 billion a year is spent on failed cancer drug development by the pharma industry. Our new paper is a case study on what goes wrong. @consiliumsci @Jhickmana
jamanetwork.com/journals/jam…
Daniel Chancellor retweeted
A powerful message from @Bayer in the @FT today speaking to @hannahkuchler. Europe (including the UK) are becoming 'innovation unfriendly' as governments make it more difficult to generate commercial returns on investments. Read it in full (£) on.ft.com/3CQl6dm
Similar sentiment to comments from Novartis last year ahead of its US-focused revamp. Commercial squeeze is forcing clinical innovation and investment to other regions, as seen by the stagnation of Europe's drug pipeline in relative terms.
Bayer shifts pharma focus away from ‘innovation unfriendly’ Europe, as AbbVie / Lilly withdraw from UK NHS pricing agreement citing its "punishing" impact on innovation ft.com/content/f2f7ee6f-0d81…
Daniel Chancellor retweeted
I had some great conversations at #JPM23 with companies and investors generally optimistic about the way forward for biopharma in 2023. In case you missed, see our free-to-read coverage of the meeting. (1/3) scrip.pharmaintelligence.inf…
The latest from @amandamicklus and Tish at @Citeline on dealmaking trends. Tiny upfronts and big biobucks is the main trend that sticks out for me. Alliances are increasingly preclinical, driven by pharma demand and biotech imperative to secure capital.
Biopharma dealmaking in 2022 go.nature.com/3iwecTO
An analysis of M&As and licensing partnership trends last year, which saw volumes of both declining, as well as highlights of major deals
Daniel Chancellor retweeted
.@ScripMandy parses the full data for #lecanemab in #Alzheimers presented at #CTAD22 including the safety concerns prominent in recent days #pharma
Eisai/Biogen’s Lecanemab Effective Across Endpoints, But Will Safety Limit Use? scrip.pharmaintelligence.inf…
This @McKinsey analysis, plus subsequent visualisation by @LifeSciVC, has gained a lot of traction in the last month.
As we own all of the data here at @Citeline, I wanted to address some unanswered questions - where is CNS, I&I burden seems low, plus others... [1/n]
That's all - hope this was as interesting to you too. This will become more relevant as cost-conscious payers need to distribute health spending equitably, and the interesting question is how this is reconciled with incentivising against future threats (e.g. AMR). [8/n]
Daniel Chancellor retweeted
In today’s environment, Europe may not match the US in scale, and is challenged by emerging markets, but it still has a central role in partnering and notable strengths, writes @danpharma on the current market situation. Get the white paper here >> spr.ly/6016MQPBk
