Healthcare should help people. Investing in neuroscience, other things.
Washington, DC
Joined May 2016
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Dan O'Brien retweeted
"Alaska once had a proud Dan tradition. A sample from the 1930 Census showed the territory was home to twice as many Dans as the national average rate" washingtonsun.com/national/d…
The “people want to keep their insurance” line has always been BS
Employers often change insurers! Insurers change their networks even more frequently! “My insurance” is not a stable concept that I can choose to keep
BAIER: Millions of Michiganders have private insurance… Will you tell them today that their plans are going away?
EL-SAYED: No, I don't want to take away anything. It’s about providing healthcare for everybody. It’s like saying because you have public schools, you can’t have private schools. I’m fine with people keeping their private insurance if that’s what they want.
I don't believe that the general counsel of a non-operating Florida LLC typically earns $10m cash per year, with bonuses, while simultaneously employed by the U.S. Justice Department
Dan O'Brien retweeted
Obefazimod in UC: the phase 3 maintenance data, from two talks @my_ueg
580 people with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis who responded to 8 weeks of obefazimod, a once-daily oral medicine, were re-randomised for 44 more weeks. Placebo here meant stopping a drug that had just worked.
It works. Clinical remission at week 52 was 39 percentage points higher than placebo on 25 mg and 40 points higher on 50 mg.
It works across the secondary endpoints too. On endoscopic improvement, endoscopic remission (Mayo 0), histo-endoscopic mucosal improvement, steroid-free remission, sustained remission, clinical response and symptomatic remission, the delta over placebo ran from 31 to 53 points, every one at p<0.0001.
It works with and without prior advanced-therapy (AT) failure. In AT-naive patients the delta in clinical remission was 45-48%; after AT failure it was 28-33%; smaller, but still large.
And it was well tolerated. Serious adverse events were within 2 points of placebo on either dose, fewer people stopped for an adverse event on drug than on placebo, and there were no deaths. Two cancers outside the skin, both on 50 mg, were judged unlikely to be related.
What next: @Abivax_ plans to file in the US by the end of 2026, and the full phase 3 paper(s) are still to come. The first Crohn's data, from the phase 2b ENHANCE-CD trial, are due in mid-2027.
Dan O'Brien retweeted
Elizabeth Holmes is an outlier but she’s part of a whole spectrum through which our society has become way too indulgent — in business, politics, policy, media, and beyond — of people who lie to or mislead others.
slowboring.com/p/our-culture…
MindMed / $DFTX had a short-lived chess sponsorship early on. Causation 💸
Best write-up I've seen on the imminent $HELP Phase 3. Written 2 mos ago but risk/reward looks the same today, now with a shorter runway: reddit.com/r/pennystocks/com…
Dan O'Brien retweeted
As the whole atopic derm sector gets beat down ($nktr $acrs $crvs) I’ve been trying to think through why AtD would not look like psoriasis with 6-8 drugs that do over $1b in that one indication.
AtD does look a little different in that dupixent had a much longer time on market without competition than the psoriasis drugs (so biosim will beat or be on market shortly after some of the current pipeline products), but it’s still hard to imagine that there won’t be 5+ blockbusters just in this indication (believe dupixent and adbry are the two that qualify today).
$BETRF says they're aiming for Nasdaq listing (I missed this yesterday). Massive reverse split likely needed
abetterlifepharma.com/wp-con…
RA Capital files a 9% 13G for $BETRF following the recent $100m round
Yes, that's 55.5 million shares out of a total share count exceeding 600-700m with warrants. Ugly balance sheet, interesting science
archive.fast-edgar.com/20260…
Dan O'Brien retweeted
this is why many people like this do M&A.
Throw an ADHDer into a low urgency, 3 weeks routine task, and they will struggle for 20 days straight to open the document.
Throw that same ADHDer into a high stakes, last minute office crisis where everything is burning down and a solution is needed in 45 minutes? They will instantly lock into calm, crystal clear, high speed problem solving while everyone else panics.
$PRAX gets these big lovely price targets but any time I buy it it trades like death. There seems to be some amount of "high nominal stock price = poor liquidity". But seems worse for PRAX than like, MDGL
H.C. Wainwright reiterated $PRAX Buy-$1201 and said -- As part of our "Biopharma Deep Dive" call series, we recently hosted Marcio Souza, President and Chief Executive Officer of Praxis Precision Medicines.
$RAPP $JAZZ SAGE DRUG UCBJY ESAIY OVID XENE
H.C. Wainwright added—During the call, we discussed relutrigine's broad potential across developmental and epileptic encephalopathies, the path forward for vormatrigine following POWER1, and ulixacaltamide's pricing and launch strategy.
Ulixacaltamide has remained the focus for investors, but we had the opportunity to discuss several other Praxis programs which underpin our thesis in the name and have kept us very bullish.
We think those programs are important, because not only do they justify significant upside from current levels, but they also provide a much higher floor for shares than investors currently think.
Relutrigine in SCN2A/8A alone could support the current share price and EMERALD could extend it to a $7B product.
Additionally, elsunersen also has blockbuster potential with the EMBRAVE3 readout potentially coming ahead of expectations.
We also would not be quick to dismiss the prospects for vormatrigine.
Finally, the company's suite of preclinical ASO candidates, some of which could be in the clinic in the next 6-12 months.
Praxis is not just a one hit wonder, but a company entering what we like to call its "blockbuster era."
In our view, that not only provides confidence on the companies long-term future on a standalone basis, but obviously increases its strategic attractiveness for potential acquirers.
RA Capital files a 9% 13G for $BETRF following the recent $100m round
Yes, that's 55.5 million shares out of a total share count exceeding 600-700m with warrants. Ugly balance sheet, interesting science
archive.fast-edgar.com/20260…
Dan O'Brien retweeted
$BBIO
Interesting head to head of $BBIO v $PFE based on real time claims data:
> In the first peer-reviewed, real-world, contemporary, comparative effectiveness study of TTR stabilizers in ATTR-CM using U.S. claims data, acoramidis was associated with a statistically and clinically significant 34% reduction in a composite of clinical worsening events (diuretic intensification, heart failure hospitalization, and mortality) versus tafamidis (p=0.046), supporting improved clinical stability of acoramidis over tafamidis
> Acoramidis was also associated with a significant 43% reduction in risk of diuretic intensification versus tafamidis (p=0.021); diuretic intensification is an early marker of worsening heart failure and worse clinical outcomes
> Separation in clinical outcomes emerged within weeks of treatment initiation and increased over time, reinforcing a consistent early treatment effect and durable clinical stabilization
> Findings underscore acoramidis’s differentiated profile, with potential to inform frontline treatment decisions and support switching individuals to acoramidis
Dan O'Brien retweeted
I’ve interviewed more than a dozen aides involved in the effort to pass the Clarity Act since Tuesday
There’s bipartisan consensus that four things killed the bill: external politics, yes, but also a bad process, wasted time and a crypto industry that could not chill tf out
Dan O'Brien retweeted
Talked to a multifamily GP that stuffed 90% of a deal's cash reserves into a Blue Owl fund to snag 10%.
Come to find out, the only way they were able to post a year one cash flow was to put the reserves in private credit.
Now they need the funds for capex, but it's gated at a 5% max withdrawal per quarter.
<sigh>
Dan O'Brien retweeted
Mike Rea takes 44 of the largest-selling branded drugs since 1996 & maps “effective duration” in peak years: how many years at peak to earn what the drug actually earned across its ramp, plateau, and decline.
12 peak-years for a chronic disease blockbuster give or take 2. Acute products eg vaccines closer to 2.5 yrs.
Tirzepatide is in year 4 at a roughly $50-60bn run-rate, about double Humira’s inflation-adjusted peak. Twelve times that peak is about $600bn in lifetime sales, which would make it the largest drug ever. Even a short 7-year duration would still pass Humira.
Open question is whether a chronic drug can be pushed toward an acute sales shape by its own maker’s pipeline (orals, next-generation incretins) while the patent is still running. Rea’s point is that Lilly’s obesity franchise is the unit, not the single molecule.
ALT https://asymmetriclearning.substack.com/p/high-long-both