@danielisdizzyi
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Investments & market insights 📈 Daily updates + my portfolio growth 💸 YouTube 🎥 https://nitter.cf/t.co/dUuKweywva
Joined March 2024
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Daniel retweeted
My 2030 price target for $NBIS is $3,000.
Nebius expects to have at least 5 GW of active compute capacity deployed by 2030.
AI compute economics have changed dramatically.
• Revenue used to be around $10M per MW
• Long-term contracts are now closer to $20–25M per MW
• Short-term capacity can reach $40–50M per MW
• Nebius’ first capacity auction cleared 15% above its previous highest contracted price
For 2030, I’m assuming $25M in annual revenue per MW.
5,000 MW × $25M = $125B in annual revenue.
Then comes profitability.
AWS currently operates at ~40% operating margins, implying an estimated net margin around 30%.
At scale, I’m modeling a 25% net margin for Nebius.
$125B revenue × 25% = $31.25B in net income.
And the growth won’t stop in 2030.
Management expects to add at least 1.5–2 GW of incremental compute capacity per year.
From a 5 GW base, that’s equivalent to another 30–40% of capacity annually.
A company generating ~$31B in net income while still expanding capacity at that pace can justify a 30x P/E.
$31.25B × 30 = ~$940B market cap.
I’m also assuming roughly 25% additional share dilution by 2030 to account for the massive amount of capital required to fund this expansion.
That gets me to approximately $3,000 per share.
Sounds insane today.
The numbers don’t.
A deal between $IREN and $GOOGL will happen.
$GOOGL is expected to reach ~32 GW of data center capacity by 2030, up from ~5 GW today.
Roughly 25% of that capacity is expected to come from leased infrastructure.
No doubt a meaningful portion of Google’s leased capacity will come from $IREN.
$IREN is one of the few companies building AI infrastructure at the scale hyperscalers need.
$IREN has made it clear that it doesn’t want to rely exclusively on hyperscalers and frontier AI labs. It also wants to serve AI developers and enterprises and become a full-stack AI cloud platform.
But $IREN still needs massive hyperscaler deals.
These multi-billion-dollar contracts can provide significant upfront payments and, more importantly, give $IREN highly creditworthy counterparties backing long-term contracted revenue.
That makes the cash flows more bankable and allows $IREN to raise debt at a lower cost to fund its massive expansion.
Customer diversification builds the platform.
Hyperscaler deals finance the scale.
$GOOGL x $IREN is coming.
When I look for stocks with true multibagger potential, one of the first things I look for is a flywheel that gets stronger over time.
A flywheel where growth reinforces the business itself, making its moat stronger and competitors increasingly unable to disrupt it.
Three flywheels I’m buying:
• $GRAB: more users & transactions → richer proprietary data → better financial underwriting → better financial products → more users & transactions.
• $HIMS: more customers → deeper health data → better personalization → better outcomes per $ spent → more customers.
• $LMND: more customers → more data → better risk pricing → lower prices → more customers.
All three flywheels are already spinning.
And while the flywheels have kept getting stronger, the stocks have crashed.
The businesses improved. The prices collapsed. The multibagger potential got even bigger.
$NVDA wants open-source AI to EXPLODE.
And an explosion in open-source AI means an explosion in compute demand.
That is incredibly bullish for $NBIS, $CRWV and $IREN.
OpenShell is the latest piece of NVIDIA’s strategy.
It is an open-source runtime that starts AI agents with ZERO permissions, then gives them access only to the tools, data and resources they actually need to complete their tasks.
And this is not an isolated move.
$NVDA is going ALL-IN on the open-source ecosystem:
• $13B to acquire Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight models
• $6B licensing deal with Poolside to build frontier open-weight models
• Nemotron, NVIDIA’s own family of open models
The strategy is clear.
NVIDIA wants open-weight models to take market share from closed labs that are increasingly trying to reduce their dependence on NVIDIA GPUs through custom ASICs.
But the bigger opportunity is COMPUTE.
Open-weight models are cheaper, customizable and can be turned into specialized models at a fraction of the cost.
And cheaper AI will NOT reduce compute demand.
It will do the exact opposite.
Cheaper models → more adoption → more agents → more tokens → MORE COMPUTE.
$NVDA wants to commoditize the model layer and EXPLODE the compute layer.
That is bullish for $NVDA.
And even more bullish for the neo-clouds selling that compute:
$NBIS
$CRWV
$IREN
$NVO is one of the best opportunities in the entire market right now.
• It needs to rally +110% just to get back to its 200-week moving average
• Revenue growth expected to return to double digits in 2027
• It trades at just 9x earnings
• It pays a 4.64% dividend yield
• Novo controls ~80% of the GLP-1 weight-loss pill market
• It plans to scale oral GLP-1 manufacturing capacity by 10x by 2030
• It partnered with Anthropic to accelerate drug discovery
The market is near all-time highs.
AI stocks have absorbed hundreds of billions in capital.
Meanwhile, $NVO has been crushed while its long-term growth story is being rebuilt.
In an AI-driven market, $NVO is my safe have.
My 2030 price target for $NBIS is $3,000.
Nebius expects to have at least 5 GW of active compute capacity deployed by 2030.
AI compute economics have changed dramatically.
• Revenue used to be around $10M per MW
• Long-term contracts are now closer to $20–25M per MW
• Short-term capacity can reach $40–50M per MW
• Nebius’ first capacity auction cleared 15% above its previous highest contracted price
For 2030, I’m assuming $25M in annual revenue per MW.
5,000 MW × $25M = $125B in annual revenue.
Then comes profitability.
AWS currently operates at ~40% operating margins, implying an estimated net margin around 30%.
At scale, I’m modeling a 25% net margin for Nebius.
$125B revenue × 25% = $31.25B in net income.
And the growth won’t stop in 2030.
Management expects to add at least 1.5–2 GW of incremental compute capacity per year.
From a 5 GW base, that’s equivalent to another 30–40% of capacity annually.
A company generating ~$31B in net income while still expanding capacity at that pace can justify a 30x P/E.
$31.25B × 30 = ~$940B market cap.
I’m also assuming roughly 25% additional share dilution by 2030 to account for the massive amount of capital required to fund this expansion.
That gets me to approximately $3,000 per share.
Sounds insane today.
The numbers don’t.
Today, I used some of the cash from my closed $AMD position to buy stocks that have already been crushed.
Here’s how much they need to gain just to get back to their 52-week highs:
• $ORCL +142.4%
• $LMND +128.5%
• $GRAB +112.9%
• $SOFI +105.6%
• $NVO +65.2%
When a stock gets crushed while its fundamentals keep improving, the risk goes DOWN and the potential upside goes UP massively.
You’re buying a better business at a much lower price.
That’s exactly how you reduce risk while increasing your potential returns.
With the market near all-time highs and valuations stretched, these are exactly the positions I want to own.
Daniel retweeted
I sold my entire $AMD position at $617 per share.
After an 8x run from April 2025 to September 2026, $AMD no longer offers the same opportunity it did last year, when sentiment was at rock bottom and the stock traded at ~20x forward earnings.
I’m convinced $AMD will become a much larger company.
But price matters.
And after an 8x run, the stock needs to breathe.
$PLTR showed exactly why.
Revenue kept growing at an incredible pace, yet the stock still went through a ~50% drawdown after running too far.
A great company doesn’t automatically mean a great stock at every price.
Something similar could happen to $AMD.
In the video, I explain why I sold everything — and why I’m still extremely bullish on AMD long term.
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$GRAB remains my favorite BUY in the market.
Over the last few weeks:
• CEO Anthony Tan bought ~$30M in shares
• The COO bought ~$900K in shares
• Grab acquired Atome
• Management now expects >30% revenue CAGR through 2028
• Financial Services is expected to turn profitable in H2 2026
• Grab announced a $900M buyback over the next 12 months, equivalent to ~7% of its current market cap
And while the business keeps getting stronger, the stock has been crushed.
$GRAB is down ~50% over the past year.
Insiders are buying.
The company is buying back stock.
Growth is accelerating.
Profitability is inflecting.
Yet the stock is down 50%.
This is exactly the type of setup I look for.
Making money in the stock market isn’t that complicated.
Last year, we all knew $GOOGL was the best buy in the MAG 7.
In April 2025, it was trading at just ~16x forward earnings.
Everyone knew it was cheap. Everyone knew it was a BUY.
A little over a year later, the stock had nearly 3x’d from its lows.
This year, the best opportunity in the MAG 7 was $META.
Once again, the opportunity was obvious.
Then $META rallied +40% in a single month.
The market isn’t stupid.
But the market can be incredibly inefficient in the short term.
And that’s exactly where the opportunity is.
We never know how long the disconnect between price and fundamentals will last.
But eventually, stock prices follow fundamentals.
The longer that disconnect lasts, the longer we get to accumulate.
In Q2, $NBIS became the first cloud provider to successfully auction AI capacity.
The result?
Blackwell capacity cleared 15% ABOVE the highest price Nebius had ever charged before.
This is one of the most important tools $NBIS has to maximize revenue per MW.
When demand massively exceeds supply, pricing capacity too low means leaving millions on the table.
And Nebius has already seen how quickly the market absorbs higher prices:
• Bare metal initially sold for ~$10–15M/MW
• Longer-term deals moved to ~$20–25M/MW
• Short-term capacity reached ~$40–50M/MW
Every time $NBIS raised prices, demand was still there.
So instead of guessing where the ceiling is, Nebius let the market find it.
The first auction immediately set a new pricing record.
As $NBIS scales toward 5+ GW, finding the maximum price the market will pay for every MW will translate into tens of billions in additional revenue.
I sold my entire $AMD position at $617 per share.
After an 8x run from April 2025 to September 2026, $AMD no longer offers the same opportunity it did last year, when sentiment was at rock bottom and the stock traded at ~20x forward earnings.
I’m convinced $AMD will become a much larger company.
But price matters.
And after an 8x run, the stock needs to breathe.
$PLTR showed exactly why.
Revenue kept growing at an incredible pace, yet the stock still went through a ~50% drawdown after running too far.
A great company doesn’t automatically mean a great stock at every price.
Something similar could happen to $AMD.
In the video, I explain why I sold everything — and why I’m still extremely bullish on AMD long term.
This video is larger than Cloudflare's 512 MB cache, so it can't be played through. More donations are needed to cover a larger cache. Donate
$META still has a lot of room to run.
The most interesting part of Meta Connect, beyond the camera-less glasses and VR, was how Meta plans to monetize Muse.
Zuck said:
“We believe that Muse will make you money and we are standing behind this by making Muse free for a huge number of tokens with the expectation that over time we will profit by taking a small fee from transactions.”
We’ll have our agents buy things for us.
We’ll have our agents sell things for us.
And $META will take a small cut of those transactions.
Just to understand the potential scale, assume:
• 500M Muse users
• $2,000 transacted per user annually
• 1% average transaction fee
That’s $1T in annual transaction volume.
At a 1% cut, that’s $10B in annual revenue for $META.
And this doesn’t even include potential $20 or $100/month Muse subscriptions.
Truist estimates Muse could generate $28.5B in incremental revenue by 2030.
And this goes far beyond $META.
This could be a preview of how the top AI labs eventually monetize their agents:
Make the agent cheap or free, let it create economic value for users, and take a tiny cut of the transactions it enables.
At scale, a tiny cut becomes a massive business.
$IREN has been under pressure over the last two days after SemiAnalysis ranked it “Not Recommended” for GPU cloud, describing its Canadian sites as among the worst in the industry.
But here’s the funny part.
Akamai was ranked in the EXACT same category as $IREN.
That same day, Akamai announced a deal potentially worth ~$20B to provide cloud infrastructure to Anthropic.
And Anthropic isn’t just a customer.
Akamai issued Anthropic warrants to acquire up to ~5% of the company.
Yes, the deal is primarily focused on CPU workloads, while SemiAnalysis is evaluating GPU cloud infrastructure.
But Anthropic is committing potentially ~$20B AND taking equity exposure to a company SemiAnalysis literally ranks “Not Recommended.”
These rankings are being given way too much weight.
A benchmark can tell you how a specific GPU infrastructure setup performed at a specific point in time.
It cannot tell you who will win in AI infrastructure.
The market is confusing the two.
$NFLX is one of the most overlooked opportunities in the market right now.
Down ~50% from its highs, Netflix trades at just ~20x forward earnings.
Meanwhile, management has laid out some massive 2030 ambitions:
• $1T market cap
• $80B revenue
• $30B operating income
• $9B advertising revenue
With a current market cap of ~$295B, reaching $1T by 2030 would imply a ~35% CAGR from here.
And Netflix doesn’t need to reinvent itself to get there.
Scale the core. Turn advertising into a monster. Keep taking live sports away from traditional TV.
At 20x forward earnings, the market is pricing Netflix like its best days are behind it.
I think they’re still ahead.
$CRWV has a $130B backlog.
$NBIS has “only” ~$40B.
Most investors see that and assume $CRWV has the advantage.
They’re looking at it backwards.
For $CRWV, that massive backlog isn’t just an advantage.
It’s a necessity.
These contracts are overwhelmingly with hyperscalers and big AI labs.
As $NBIS management has explained, these customers don’t need the full software stack. They mostly need bare-metal compute.
That means lower margins and less revenue per MW.
So why lock up so much capacity with them?
Because massive contracts with highly creditworthy hyperscalers allow neoclouds to raise debt at much better terms.
And nobody needs that more than $CRWV.
$NBIS has other levers. It can potentially monetize non-core assets such as Toloka, Avride and its ClickHouse stake.
$CRWV is far more dependent on external financing to fund its buildout.
That completely changes how you should look at its $130B backlog.
The hyperscaler contracts aren’t valuable just because of the revenue they lock in.
They’re valuable because of the billions in cheaper capital they can unlock.
For $CRWV, backlog is a financing weapon.
$ORCL is one of the easiest buys in the entire market right now.
While $NBIS is up ~10% today and $CRWV ~4%, $ORCL is down another 4%.
Oracle is now ~60% below its all-time high and trades at just ~21x earnings.
It has also fallen below its 200-week moving average.
Over the last 17 years, $ORCL has traded below its 200 WMA in only 4 distinct periods.
Every single time, it reclaimed it within weeks.
And now Oracle has $664B in RPO.
On top of that, the $20B ATM was already completed last quarter, removing that dilution overhang in the short term.
A 60% drawdown.
21x earnings.
$664B in contracted backlog.
And one of the rarest technical setups $ORCL has seen in the last two decades.
I’m buying $ORCL here.