I’ve studied $ADBE, $DUOL, $WISE & $DSY. Personal account. Not financial advice.

Madrid, Comunidad de Madrid
Joined August 2024
Wise Business is now ~31% of cross-border volume, up from ~29% a year ago. Business pays a lower take rate too: 37bps vs 55bps for Personal. Part of the blended take-rate decline is mix, not just price cuts. $WISE
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OakNorth outsourcing international payments to Wise is the kind of $WISE growth I like most: the end customer can use Wise infrastructure without ever choosing the Wise app.
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A 572-student RCT found a Duolingo-based vocabulary package improved acquisition, but not retention vs traditional instruction. Narrow study, not a verdict on $DUOL. Still a useful reminder: engagement is not the same thing as learning.
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Adobe GenStudio can now let ChatGPT, Claude, Codex and Copilot query ad performance, assemble creative and publish approved ads through MCP. That’s “lose the interface, keep the workflow” in practice. $ADBE
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eSIMs inside Wise feels either very smart or very distracting. Bull case: $WISE becomes the operating layer for international life. Bear case: feature creep around a great payments network.
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$WISE reports Q2 tomorrow. My checklist: • volume per customer • instant-transfer % • transaction revenue vs customer growth • price cuts vs margin If those move together, the flywheel is still doing its job.
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Heathrow is using Adobe to improve how its content shows up in AI search. I like the direction: $ADBE is trying to monetize not just content creation, but the discovery layer that sits on top of it.
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Duolingo is using AI to generate items for the English Test — but with staged expert review before they reach a high-stakes exam. That human-in-the-loop design matters more to me than “AI-powered” branding. $DUOL
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The second system uses anomaly detection to monitor individual test sessions for quality issues. For DET, the moat has to be trust + scale. Cheap automation alone would be a terrible moat.
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Adobe started charging paid users’ AI Assistant actions against credits on Oct. 1. That’s the $ADBE datapoint I care about: agentic AI is moving from product demo to usage-based monetization.
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Time
What’s the most you’ve ever lost on a single stock?
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When freight rates triple, a 30% NAV discount deserves a second look—but duration is everything.
Suezmax rates are up 3.5x since start of this year and expected to remain higher this time around till Bab al-Mandab Strait remains closed #GEShip has 3 Suezmax tankers deployed at spot rates Company is also trading ~30% below its NAV
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Debt sets the pressure; inflation and policy credibility decide when the bond market reacts.
1/8 Is Too Much Debt the Reason Bond Yields are Heading Higher? -- My argument for why this case is overstated. (It's a problem, but a secondary one.) 🧵
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Wise became the first non-bank to secure the five licences needed for local operations in Thailand, then launched the account + card there. That’s the $WISE regulatory moat in practice: lots of invisible plumbing before the simple product launch.
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For all the talk about AI and Chess, one of the more important $DUOL changes is boring: its nine most popular language courses now reach B2. If Duolingo wants to become a real learning platform, course depth matters more than feature count.
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One detail in the Topaz deal I think matters: its Neurostream tech can run complex AI models on-device, not just in the cloud. For $ADBE, better local inference could mean lower friction, lower compute dependence and more AI inside existing workflows.
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Premiere on Android is free, with no login and no watermark. That’s a pretty different funnel for $ADBE: remove friction at the edge, then monetize generative credits and storage later. I like the direction.
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SYSTRA + $DSY is more interesting than the press release sounds. Virtual twins moving from products into rail and infrastructure widens the lifecycle opportunity. Now I want to see whether these projects turn into recurring 3DEXPERIENCE revenue.
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$WISE’s £405M buyback sounds bigger than the pure capital return. Roughly 40% of the shares repurchased are earmarked for employee equity awards. Still useful, but I care more about net share-count reduction than the headline buyback number.
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The part of $DSY I’m least comfortable with isn’t the product. It’s capital allocation. ArisGlobal costs ~$1.8B upfront for ~$175M of 2026 revenue. A deep moat doesn’t make >10x sales cheap. This deal needs to earn its keep.
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