BLUF: Russia @ MidEast / They never left Syria.
And after the US withdrawal from Syria, Kurdistan, and Iraq, Russia seems to be on the winning side, especially when relations with Israel are taken into account.
The immediate risk for a kinetic conflict Poland vs Russia or BY [lvl Art 5 NATO] remains low. Term: 7y+ it sits still below 20%. Acc to ICD 203 it is possible but not really probable.
Scale: Kahn's rungs.
PL-Centric Update to the 4Q/2025 Conflict-Risk Chart
Dec 17, 2025 baseline [attached tweet] with a #Poland-first lens through Mar 14, 2026 #Kahn #NATO #Russia
xitter.cf/daggercomplex/status/2…
Replying to @KapitanLisowski
Mr Lisowski🤦♂️
why the🐐-thang...
Now... he WILL rlly fck U up...
Just apologize wh a simple "I am sorry"...
xitter.cf/Szkola_Szpiegow/status…
Jacek #Gawryszewski vel #Winek. Pivotal person close to @pisorgpl. He was the mole that helped to topple @donaldtusk #PO in 2014/15. #Afera #Podsluchowa. He miraculously survived @Kaminski_M_ purge 2015/16
cc @ABW_GOV_PL @AWgovPL @MKierwinski @sikorskiradek // bcc @CIA @2669red
Index for Opus Magnum on "afera podsluchowa"
The index is 50 pages long The initial part attached
Interested @cbagovpl @pnisztor @Piotrw1966 @FBI?
main index👇
Israeli electoral map based on the latest Kanal 12 poll, cross-referenced against Kanal 11 and Kanal 13 polls.
2/2
Israeli electoral map based on the latest Kanal 12 poll, cross-referenced against Kanal 11 and Kanal 13 polls.
1/2
2 days ago the situation looked like this. Assessment: @marcorubio and @TomRoseIndy were not lying to @sikorskiradek. Looks very bad for the @StateDept...
cc @anneapplebaum
bcc @cia @2669red
fyi @AWgovPL @MSZ_RP






























