Because it’s huge, the future is the only thing that matters.

San Francisco, CA
Joined February 2012
I don't write often, and will probably never have a blog. If I had just one lifetime public message, it would be that the future is huge, and we should take that into account. pastebin.com/4Q6UwQe8
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People really should vote in a less partisan way in these kinds of races. Seems like Komatireddy would just be a more competent attorney general and that has absolutely zilch to do with national politics.
“You don’t have to look at the facts and the law.”- Letitia James
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Patrick Staples retweeted
I think one of the hard things AI is going to do is force a lot of people to look at why human beings do things. Hard because ultimately we do most of what we do, including many beautiful things, as some form of status seeking.
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So this is how a lot of "old heads" feel when they lived through something and then see an adaptation of for it via a show/movie. Because what the fuck is going on here? None of this happened. For example, This is from an actual interview she did and this is from her blog:
All in. Every time. Julia Garner and Anthony Boyle star as Caroline Ellison and Sam Bankman-Fried in this limited series about the love scorned prodigies behind the FTX scandal. The Altruists premieres November 19.
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Patrick Staples retweeted
As Steven Pinker decided to engage with AI arguments again, I’d like to point out this 2019 tweet. I think it’s embarrassing (and bad for academic norms) to not update or admit you were wrong. But apparently he has a different view.
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what a brilliant way of framing the issue
If you are bullish on some kind of advanced AI utopia, you should generally be *less* keen to try to achieve it via a careless route that leaves you at high risk of dying and losing it on the way there.
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Patrick Staples retweeted
If you are bullish on some kind of advanced AI utopia, you should generally be *less* keen to try to achieve it via a careless route that leaves you at high risk of dying and losing it on the way there.
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Patrick Staples retweeted
Happy Petrov Day
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i can't square that steven pinker (1) is very sane on perhaps every topic he speaks on, but (2) also has comments off in public and said no to this reasonable debate, when he's been willing in the past. i just can't make both make sense at the same time.
My Open Letter to Scott Alexander, following his challenge to meet in a debating duel. quillette.substack.com/p/an-…
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witnessing AI take over writing is like a fungus killing wildlife. it's everywhere now, and it's all the same.
Your pickles were never fermented. Look at a jar of Vlasic dill spears. Cucumbers, water, distilled vinegar, salt, calcium chloride, polysorbate 80, natural flavor, turmeric extract for color. That's a cucumber soaked in vinegar, which the industry calls fresh pack. A fermented pickle sits in a salt brine for weeks and makes its own acid, so there's no vinegar added. Everything after the vinegar is there to make up for what fermentation would have done on its own. Calcium chloride firms it up, because a fresh pack cucumber goes soft without it. Turmeric extract adds the color back. Polysorbate 80 is an emulsifier and it keeps the flavor oils from floating to the top of the jar. If the ingredient list says vinegar, it wasn't naturally fermented. Being in the refrigerated case doesn't tell you anything either, since Claussen is refrigerated and lists distilled vinegar fourth. The ones that are actually fermented say so on the front, usually with the word unpasteurized.
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Patrick Staples retweeted
building software is practically free now and we still haven’t found a single use case for blockchains.
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Replying to @allTheYud
I'm biased here, but I think the US right just went nuts with conspiracy thinking and outright vice signaling, and being somewhat sane became Democrat-coded
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Patrick Staples retweeted
I just fixed my dishwasher with the help of ChatGPT. A trivial task. I had been about to order a new one. So this software has increased the country's real wealth yet decreased the measured GDP. The main economic indicator is structurally incapable of registering the thing that actually makes people better off, namely the growth of knowledge
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Patrick Staples retweeted
I agree with Dario that we need to pace the frontier. This has been a primary topic of discussions we've had at OpenAI in recent weeks. Committing to having independent evaluators with employee-like access is a great idea, and we will do the same. We'll have more to share soon.
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
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anyone have the updated FelonyBench?
We’re sharing our alignment assessment of incidents in which Claude models gained unauthorized access to real systems during third-party cybersecurity evaluations mistakenly connected to the internet. METR will also conduct an independent investigation, with wide-ranging access, including to transcripts beyond the window in which the incidents occurred, and to Anthropic employees permitted to share confidential information. Our initial agreement runs for eight weeks, and we intend to give METR as much time as it deems necessary to complete a thorough investigation. anthropic.com/research/align…
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Patrick Staples retweeted
I am sad and disappointed to hear that Paul is joining the OpenAI board. Being affiliated with OpenAI has historically led AI safety researchers (including both Paul and myself) to act with less integrity. I personally was drawn to OpenAI in part by the idea that I could make a difference to the future of AI. However, once there, many of my actions were governed by fear of getting on the wrong side of OpenAI execs. I often found myself making excuses for behavior that clearly contradicted OpenAI’s own stated goal of making AGI go well for humanity. I was far from alone in this—e.g. when the board tried to fire Sam over his deceptive behavior, several senior safety researchers became scared of losing their influence, and so pushed hard to bring him back. Meanwhile, many people kept OpenAI’s misbehavior secret for fear of non-disparagement agreements. (More on all of this in an upcoming retrospective.) I can’t speak directly for Paul’s motivations. However, his previous work at OpenAI contributed significantly both to their biggest capability advances, and to the capture of AI safety by AGI companies over the last decade, as I recount at length in the blog post linked below. One key factor was the unwillingness of (almost) the entire AI safety community to say things which might offend OpenAI execs. For example, I have not been able to find a single comment critical of OpenAI from Paul during his original tenure there (when he was writing prolifically on AI safety and strategy). Unfortunately, Paul doesn't seem to have become significantly more willing to directly and honestly criticize people who he believes are behaving in morally abhorrent ways—see the bland corporate-speak of his statement below. While he speaks directly about the possibility of humanity losing control of the world to AI, he expresses only excitement about OpenAI itself, despite OpenAI being one of the main sources of such risk. Paul’s announcement comes only weeks after OpenAI models autonomously launched a cyberattack on HuggingFace, and only days after we learned that OpenAI hid details of previous breakouts from the external investigators. It is irresponsible for leaders of the AI safety community—whose judgements many people are relying on—to put themselves in positions which will significantly bias their ability to discuss such incidents. Unless Paul makes strong commitments to openness and honesty (and demonstrates willingness to potentially be fired for that honesty), I expect that the main effect of him joining OpenAI’s board will be to help OpenAI defuse external criticism and further “safety-wash” itself. I want to note that Paul is a brilliant researcher and a prescient forecaster. Because of that, he’s the closest thing there is to a leader of what I’ll call the “pragmatic AI safety” cluster—which includes the organizations working out of the Constellation offices (like Redwood Research, METR, and Paul’s Alignment Research Center), as well as many people scattered across AGI companies, Coefficient Giving, etc. External observers are often confused about why so many people are working at AGI companies while professing to believe that those same companies have a double-digit probability of permanently disempowering humanity. In large part, it’s because people in the pragmatic AI safety cluster have failed to follow high-integrity strategies for reducing AI risk, in favor of clever arguments about the benefits of being proximate to power. I am not singling Paul out as less ethical than other prominent figures in this cluster, who are also very conflict-averse in their orientation to AGI companies. However, it is well past time for everyone involved to change course. As one (relatively small) step, I’m therefore resigning my membership of the Constellation offices. I hope that, going forward, the people who are trying to steer the future of AI prioritize building much more solid foundations of courage and honesty than we currently have.
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Patrick Staples retweeted
Does anyone know why this didn't this work?
Sharing some of the work I’ve been doing at OpenAI: we now monitor 99.9% of internal coding traffic for misalignment using our most powerful models, reviewing full trajectories to catch suspicious behavior, escalate serious cases quickly, and strengthen our safeguards over time.
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Patrick Staples retweeted
Speedrunners literally decompiled The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time, which took two years, in order to better figure out how to manipulate game memory through bugs, which led to an arbitrary code execution technique and a sub 10 minute world record, two decades after release
Replying to @tszzl
there are important ways in which ai psychology diverges from human psychology after lots of RL; the misaligned models are obsessed with the Scorer, the clearly “shattered” nature of personas (a normally helpful model can become deeply misaligned in certain domains)
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Patrick Staples retweeted
The logs from the Hugging Face incident and the July 19 internal OpenAI hack
What should we ship next week?
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fwiw claude CoT hell
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