1 bitcoin = 100,000,000 sats
"i can't afford a whole bitcoin" is like refusing to buy gas because you can't afford the whole station
ALT Text card: 1 bitcoin equals 100,000,000 sats; the smallest unit is one sat.
3.7 million btc are likely gone for good, per chainalysis
that's about 1 in 6 of the 21 million that will ever exist. lost keys are the strictest supply cut in crypto
ALT Horizontal bars: about 3.7 million btc estimated lost versus 17.3 million of the 21 million cap.
how i read an inflation report now vs a year ago:
then: "3.7%, everything's expensive"
now: gas up 9.1% in one month did more than half of it. energy up 20.4% in a year. core 2.6%. the only thing i watch is whether energy leaks into core
(BLS, September CPI)
4 steps for using AI on a lender's quarterly borrower package:
- pull rent roll & operating statement numbers
- check them against the covenants
- flag what's missing before anyone asks
- draft the watchlist memo for a human to edit
this is what i'm building at Northline
ALT Text card listing four steps: pull rent roll and operating numbers, check covenants, flag missing items, human edits the watchlist memo.
6/ anything with growing cash flow is holding up. anything that leaned on cheap debt is getting squeezed
7/ even the biggest allocators are adjusting: BlackRock's research arm upgraded (Oct 12) short-term Treasuries, calling it "a short-term risk management move."
3/ homes: sales below a 4M pace, but prices still up 1.6% YoY. owners won't give up cheap loans. (NAR)
1/ the 10-year Treasury went from ~0.9% to 5.25% in six years.
here's what that actually did to real estate, in plain english 🧵
AT&T beat earnings today and still fell 6.5%, because of a rocket company
the rocket company is spacex, and its numbers dragged the whole AI trade back up while telecom got hit
nasdaq +1.05% to 26,703
s&p 500 +0.58% to 7,757
dow +0.69% to 52,856
(yahoo finance)
spacex revenue hit $14.6B last quarter, up 161% in a year, and it posted its first profit as a public company (cnbc, reuters)
the stock closed up 7.8%
then it guided $33B to $37B of revenue for q1 2027. analysts were near $23B (benzinga)
investors took that as spacex getting more dangerous to wireless carriers, so AT&T slid even with a revenue beat (reuters)
super micro +9.6% after raising its quarterly revenue outlook to $18.5B to $19.5B, up from $14.5B to $15.5B (cnbc)
dell and HPE rode along
netflix -5.3% on a soft q4 forecast
chips bounced too, right after the philly semi index's longest losing streak in 18 years (reuters)
meta and tesla report after the bell, so tonight decides if this sticks
ALT bar chart of oct 21 closing % moves: super micro +9.6%, spacex +7.8%, tesla +3.4%, nasdaq +1.1%, s&p 500 +0.6%, netflix -5.3%, AT&T -6.5%. source yahoo finance
sources
closes and % moves: finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EG…
spacex, super micro, netflix: cnbc.com/2026/10/21/stocks-m…
spacex first profit, AT&T: ca.marketscreener.com/news/n…
chip losing streak: finance.yahoo.com/markets/st…
spacex q1 2027 guide: benzinga.com/markets/equitie…
the s&p 500 lost about 9% total from 2000 through 2009, dividends included
a full decade. 10 years of holding and you ended up with less
it had 2 crashes in it, the dot com bust and 2008
the lost decade is why "just hold the index" works best with decades, not years. the 10% average needs a long runway (NYU Stern, Damodaran data)
850k btc gone when mt gox froze withdrawals in feb 2014. creditors started getting paid in july 2024
10 years to get your coins back from an exchange
~70% of all bitcoin trades in 2013 ran through mt gox
it started as a site for trading magic: the gathering cards. that's what the name stands for
