just a poor peon trying to make it @smol_joes @peonnft
Joined April 2023
- Tweets2.8K
- Following307
- Followers1.3K
- Likes2.1K
Pinned Tweet
i treat this account as a personal journal of my market thoughts
i started it because i was sick of blindly following ppl on ct and getting rekt
ct is funny
only a few days ago everyone was talking about cycle top being in
now everyone's bullish again
u can imagine that if we get a 5k pullback everyone's gonna be talking about bottoms not being in
i give it 70/30 the bottom is in
70% in
- we hit our target level of 88k
- impulsive move off the lows
- weekly low of 88.9 put it at a good time (monday) and has low chance of being taken out
30% not in
- move largely driven by shorts unwinding
- we frontrun alot of bids at 88k (usually a sign it gets revisited)
- the low should be hard to buy (this low seemed too easy to bid)
- 88.9k is a shallow retracement (would expect lower)
some other news-related stuff to consider:
- we pumped off the news that trump would make an "executive order" for crypto in his first day in office -- this is vague af
- inflation worries/cpi
- usgovt still has $6.5bn of btc to liquidate
Either we reject here or reject at 99k if I had to guess
99k has a shit ton of asks so makes it logical
Keep in mind they could be spoofs too
important to note that CPI is more impt than PPI
the forecast is 2.9% yoy, but that is already UP from previous forecast of 2.7%
so even if tmr meets expectations as Kalshi mkts suggest, it still means that we inflation to worry about
if it meets expectations then it's probably priced in, but it also means we probably aren't gonna go full bull yet
so if ur experiencing fomo cos u missed this pump and worried that we'll never hit low 90s again then chill there's still a big hill to climb
ppi came in good, bottom is probably in now
brutal cos i was in bed nursing a flu all day
regardless if bottom is in or not tho, a pullback will happen, whether here or higher at around 100k
so the worst thing u can do is enter now, it pumps to 100k (likely), u rejoice but then it retraces and ur stuck in a weird position of whether to sell to buy back lower or hodl an underwater position
sunday hot take:
elliott wave is actually pretty useful TA, but requires strong mastery of it to be useful which most ppl don't have
at the very least, it teaches u the difference between "impulsive" and "corrective" price action which can be hard for most to grasp since corrective waves can actually go up