Cryptoverse

Some thoughts on the ETH ETF decision in May... While it's a thin market, the most popular crypto prediction market, polymarket, has the odds of a May approval at 24%. I personally think this is quite mispriced, I think correct odds are closer to 70%. Even with the mispricing, I still think a better r/r is just holding ETH in size. What's interesting is that while market odds have come down, ETH has largely continued to keep pace with BTC, even with all of its ETF inflows. Against the dollar, ETH has been genuinely up only. 1. First and foremost, I think the bloomberg bros are putting quite a bit of bias into their prediction. Go to minute 33 of @EricBalchunas interview with @laurashin: xitter.cf/laurashin/status… He pretty much says that he's not that interested in the ETH ETF. The Bitcoin ETF was such a big story, why should he spend any time thinking about ETH? I imagine the bros are both tired from the coverage they did for BTC, people were scrutinizing every word they said, why go through that again? I find their claims of "gary is scared of liz warren" to be so off base as well. These politicians aren't sitting in their ivory towers plotting crypto's demise, they respond most to financial interests, you really don't think larry is going to win this eventually? Imo comments like this one are just BTC maxi fodder they've picked up from being enshrined as new members in the cult, not actual critical thinking: xitter.cf/EricBalchunas/status/1… 2. From what I've picked up from smarter analysts than myself, the SEC can really only reject the ETF on the grounds of a weak correlation between spot and futs markets. It's funny to watch @NateGeraci push back against the bloomberg bros but he makes a good point, why would they have approved the futures product in the first place xitter.cf/NateGeraci/status/1766… My honest view is the SEC knew they were boxed into approving BTC and ETH spot ETFs after the grayscale decision, those were the two assets/markets already claimed by the CFTC. Gary and his staffers are smart, they don't want to start any big turf wars so they can secure their high paying jobs assuming trump comes into office. SEC knows that if they try and reject that there will just be another lawsuit on their hands, Coinbase and co are already preparing work for the legal battle should there be one: xitter.cf/NateGeraci/status/1766… You know what's worse than losing one high profile legal battle to a crypto company? losing a second one. Not only that, but Trump was literally on CNBC talking about how much fun he's having with crypto. The tides have shifted in our favor. 3. The outcry from the BTC maxi community against the ETH ETF is so reminiscent of previous cycles. Everyone tricks themselves into believing BTC is the only thing that matters right at the big inflection points. Even @JSeyff has noticed it: xitter.cf/JSeyff/status/17672103… 4. My last point, and I really do believe this to be true, it doesn't matter if the ETH ETF is approved in May, or at some later date, it is happening. If anything, crypto has proved that it's too small of a market to properly front run real money flows that come from an asset becoming easily available to the mainstream. A more drawn out process just gives crypto natives more time to pile into the trade. Ever stop to think why ETH has gained (slightly) against BTC while the BTC ETF was literally the most successful ETF launch in history?