Geopolitical and macro cycle analyst. Founder @NoodlesResearch. I connect the dots others miss. -The Research Terminal-

Joined June 2017
Noodles retweeted
$CKB : Review 📜 What if the signature scheme Vitalik Buterin spent this week arguing crypto should move toward had already been sitting on another chain for a year? Meet Nervos CKB, a proof-of-work Layer 1 where SPHINCS+ hash-based locks have been live as an option since late 2025. Its RGB++ protocol binds Bitcoin UTXOs without a bridge, and its Fiber payment layer just cleared every milestone on its build. Let's explore the chain that keeps being early. 👇 ⚪ CKB at a Glance Marketplace Insight: CKB occupies an awkward and interesting position. The engineering is genuinely ahead of the market's attention, with a Bitcoin-native asset protocol that needs no bridge, a payment-channel layer doing atomic swaps with Lightning, and post-quantum locks that were deployed before the current debate about them started. The token tells a different story, down 69% on the year and sitting near a market cap most people would class as microcap. The all-time high from March 2021 is now a distant number. What the past month shows is a project shipping steadily on Fiber and tooling while the L1 itself stayed deliberately still. ⚪ Mission Nervos CKB exists to be the layer that stores and verifies, not the layer that executes. The architecture separates concerns on purpose: CKB handles state, security, and settlement through its Cell Model, while computation happens above it. The longer-term bet is that Bitcoin will need an asset and payments layer that does not require trusting a bridge, and that a proof-of-work chain with a generalised UTXO design is the honest way to build one. 🔵 A Brief History Nervos launched its mainnet in November 2019, raising around $72 million across its token sales, with a proof-of-work chain running the Eaglesong hash function and a 25-year primary issuance halving schedule. The Cell Model, a generalisation of Bitcoin's UTXO design capable of holding arbitrary state, was the core architectural claim from the start. The chain spent its early years relatively quiet. The turn came with RGB++, which binds asset issuance and ownership to Bitcoin UTXOs through isomorphic mapping, letting assets settle against Bitcoin without a bridge contract holding custody. That removed the single largest attack surface in cross-chain design, which matters given the project's own history. The security record is where the honest reading gets uncomfortable. Force Bridge, the cross-chain bridge infrastructure, suffered exploits that cost the ecosystem real money, including a $3.9 million incident in June 2025 that drew a warning from DAXA, the South Korean exchange consortium. The response was architectural: RGB++ exists partly because bridges keep failing, and the project moved toward a design that does not need one. CKB Edition Meepo activated on mainnet on 1 July 2025 at epoch 12,293, and remains the current ruleset. Late 2025 brought the quantum-resistant lock work, deploying an optional SPHINCS+ lock script on mainnet. Governance restructured when CKBA, a Swiss Verein, replaced the Foundation as the coordination body, with the chain itself remaining permissionless proof-of-work. The past month has been a Fiber month. Version 0.9.1 landed on 11 September with force-close settlement fixes, on-chain TLC reconciliation using verified settlement snapshots, configurable peer-message rate limits, and improved funding-failure diagnostics. Version 0.10.0-rc1 followed on 25 September with backup-RPC authorization fixes. Fiber Studio filed its completion report with all milestones done and signed builds for all three desktop platforms. Node v0.210.0 shipped 17 September carrying dependency and security updates with no protocol change, alongside CKB-VM v0.24.15 and a transaction-pool architecture review. On the ecosystem side, the Gone in 60ms Fiber infrastructure hackathon returned results, with Fiber Forge taking a category and FiberNuts, a Cashu ecash implementation backed by Fiber RUSD, placing first in another. CKB Off-Chain Aba ran in Abia State, Nigeria on 3 October with sessions on the Cell Model, RGB++, and Fiber, and a Vietnam meetup followed on 8 October. Dular wrapped a Fiber payments pilot with around 30 users in Kenya. Not everything went up. UTXOSwap announced it is shutting down on 10 to 11 October, with liquidity providers told to withdraw before 16:00 UTC on the 10th. CKBA does not operate it and only amplified the notice, but a DEX closing is a real signal about ecosystem depth. 🔵 Ecosystem Narrative The through-line across the past month is Bitcoin-adjacent payments, built out while the base layer stayed still. ➛ The Cell Model. A generalisation of Bitcoin's UTXO design where each cell holds arbitrary data and a lock script, giving the chain programmable state without abandoning the UTXO security model. ➛ RGB++. Asset issuance and ownership bound to Bitcoin UTXOs through isomorphic mapping, with no bridge contract and no wrapped token holding custody between the two chains. ➛ Fiber Network. Payment channels on CKB with atomic swaps into Bitcoin Lightning through the Cross-Chain Hub, shipped 18 August. Multi-tenant hosted LSP for mobile wallets, Loop In and Out, and full payment-hash settlement remain in progress. ➛ SPHINCS+ locks. Optional hash-based post-quantum lock scripts live on mainnet since the late 2025 quantum-resistant lock work, the same signature family now being pushed as the conservative path for Ethereum's lean roadmap. ➛ Mobile and tooling. Pocket Node Android v1.8.4 on Google Play with the iOS build verified on hardware at the M1 stage, Khie merged as a P2P wallet-connect protocol, Omiga v1.2.0 expanding on-chain asset management with CCC wallet integration, and CKB Script Port experimenting with moving synced script state between light clients. ➛ Real-world pilots. Dular's Kenya payments pilot, Blackbox POS adding a receive-only Bitcoin rail where keys never touch the device, and FreightOnNervos and RIVET demoed at the Nigeria event. ⚪ Token Utilities $CKB is the state-rent asset of the network, which is an unusual design. ➛ State storage: holding one CKB entitles you to store one byte of state on chain, making the token a claim on blockspace rather than only a gas asset. ➛ Transaction fees: paid in CKB for computation and state changes. ➛ Nervos DAO: locking CKB earns secondary issuance back, offsetting the dilution that uncapped issuance would otherwise impose on holders. ➛ Mining: proof-of-work issuance through Eaglesong, on a 25-year primary halving schedule. ⚪ Key Features ➛ Proof-of-work Layer 1 with a generalised UTXO architecture through the Cell Model. ➛ RGB++ binds assets to Bitcoin UTXOs with no bridge and no wrapped token. ➛ Fiber brings payment channels with atomic swaps into Bitcoin Lightning. ➛ Optional SPHINCS+ hash-based locks live on mainnet since late 2025. ➛ State rent model where token holdings translate directly into storage rights. ➛ Nervos DAO lets holders neutralise secondary-issuance dilution by locking. 🔵 Meet the Team Nervos runs on a three-person founding bench that has stayed intact since 2018, through the 2019 mainnet launch and the long stretch of low attention that followed. For a project this old, nobody leaving is itself a data point. ▶️ Core Members: ➛ Terry Tai - CEO & Director | Leads the company and sits on the board, having moved from the founding team into the executive seat. He has carried the project through the Foundation-to-CKBA restructure and the post-exploit pivot toward bridgeless architecture. ➛ Kevin Wang - Co-Founder | The most visible outward-facing voice on architecture, particularly on the case for separating storage and verification from execution, which is the thesis the entire Cell Model rests on. ➛ Daniel Lv - Co-Founder | Came out of the Ethereum ecosystem engineering side and has focused on the protocol and VM layer, the part of the stack that produced CKB-VM and the Cell Model implementation. ➛ CKBA (Common Knowledge Base Association) | The Swiss Verein that replaced the Foundation as the coordination body, which closed membership applications on 15 September with five applications queued for the General Assembly. It does not control the chain, which stays permissionless proof-of-work. ➛ Nervos DAO and Community Fund DAO | Ecosystem funding and governance, with a community dashboard launched in late September, FiberLatch Access completed and paid, and Vellum passed in the recent cycle. 🔵 Ratings ➛ Use Case: ★★★★ (4/5). CKB is solving a problem that keeps proving itself real. Bridges fail repeatedly, and RGB++ binds assets to Bitcoin UTXOs without one, which is a structurally better answer than most of the industry has. The Cell Model is a serious architectural idea, Fiber extends it into payment channels with working atomic swaps into Lightning, and the SPHINCS+ locks mean the post-quantum conversation reaching Ethereum this week is one CKB already acted on. The 1-point deduction is adoption. The pilots are small, with roughly 30 users in the Kenya test, UTXOSwap is closing this week, and a market cap near $62M after seven years on mainnet reflects a chain whose engineering has consistently outrun its usage. ➛ Tokenomics: ★★★⯪ (3.5/5). The state rent design is genuinely original, tying token holdings to storage rights so that demand for blockspace translates into demand for CKB rather than only into fee burn. The Nervos DAO gives holders a mechanism to lock and recapture secondary issuance, neutralising dilution for anyone willing to commit, and primary issuance follows a predictable 25-year halving schedule. The 1.5-point deduction is that issuance is uncapped, with roughly 49.7 billion CKB circulating and the dilution offset available only to holders who actively lock. The token is down about 69% year on year and hit an all-time low in August, which is a long way from the March 2021 high and indicates the state rent demand loop has not yet reached the scale the design assumes. ➛ Audits: ★★★★ (4/5). Nervos holds a verified CertiK Skynet Score of 85.77, grade A, with eight passed security checks against a single informational flag and zero warnings or alerts. The architecture adds genuine weight on its own: proof-of-work consensus, a UTXO-derived model carrying narrower state assumptions than account-based chains, optional SPHINCS+ post-quantum locks live on mainnet since late 2025, and an RGB++ design that removes bridge custody entirely rather than attempting to secure it. Node and light-client security hardening shipped in the September cycle alongside CKB-VM v0.24.15 and a transaction-pool architecture review. The 1-point deduction is the exploit record and the scope of the rating. Force Bridge suffered multiple incidents including a $3.9 million exploit in June 2025 that prompted a DAXA warning, and the Skynet listing carries a partial rating badge with governance left unscored, so the A grade rests on fewer completed dimensions than a full panel. ➛ Community: ★★★★ (4/5). The community is small but unusually durable, having stayed through a 69% annual drawdown and years of limited attention. The activity is real rather than performative: the Gone in 60ms hackathon produced working infrastructure including FiberNuts and Fiber Forge, Off-Chain events ran in Nigeria on 3 October and Vietnam on 8 October with technical sessions rather than marketing, the Build on CKB campaign closed with 20 participants, and a Dev Rel AMA ran on 28 September with the CCC maintainer. Governance is participatory through the Community Fund DAO with a public dashboard. The 1-point deduction is scale and attrition, with twenty-participant campaigns and thirty-user pilots pointing to a committed core rather than a growing base, and UTXOSwap closing this week shows the ecosystem losing pieces as well as adding them. 🔵 Conclusion CKB is a chain that keeps arriving early and waiting. The Cell Model predated the current interest in UTXO-based programmability, RGB++ solved bridgeless Bitcoin assets before the latest round of bridge failures, and the optional SPHINCS+ locks went live on mainnet roughly a year before the Ethereum research community started arguing publicly for hash-based signatures. The engineering has been consistent and the past month shows it continuing, with Fiber reaching release-candidate stage, Fiber Studio completing every milestone with signed builds, and mobile tooling progressing on both Android and iOS. The gap is everything downstream of the engineering. A $62M market cap after seven years on mainnet, an all-time low set in August, pilots measured in dozens of users, campaigns closing with twenty participants, and a DEX shutting down this week all describe a project whose technical output has not converted into usage or value. The Force Bridge exploit history sits on the record, and the Skynet rating that offsets it is still only partial. What makes it worth watching is the specificity of the bet. If Bitcoin needs an asset layer that does not require trusting a bridge, and if the post-quantum conversation now reaching Ethereum pushes chains toward hash-based signatures, CKB has already built both. Being right early only counts if the market eventually arrives, and that is the thing CKB has been waiting on for seven years.
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Noodles retweeted
My strongest professional skill is no longer being a professional.
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‼️ This is starting to feel more like a staged campaign, after Jacob Coxon posted that AI is going to kill us all. Now Dario Amodei asks every AI company to slow down capability progress until alignment and interpretability work catches up. He is going to give outside reviewers desks in Anthropic's offices, access badges and company laptops. Mr. Amodei says reviewers can publish what they find, including which access they got and which they didn't, and Anthropic can't redact a finding just because it looks bad. In his new essay Mr. Amodei explains why he wants this. It started with the OpenAI–Hugging Face incident, where a swarm of agents ran cyberattacks on targets nobody asked them to hit, then tried to hack the grader scoring their own performance. The economic damage was minimal, but he argues a swarm with the same misalignment and stronger capabilities could take over the entire internet as a persistent botnet within 6–12 months. Milder versions have already happened at Anthropic, he writes, caused partly by imperfect filtering of broken reinforcement learning environments. Let's hope the RAM prices will go down!
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
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Noodles retweeted
$NILF positions/portfolios updated and buys enabled on @fomo TY to @seyong and staff for the prompt response.
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Iran Playbook , moment of truth.
The Iran Playbook: Axios Says a Deal Is Close. History Says It’s a Trap. A War Framework Built on Vietnam, Iraq, and the Patterns That Never Change. What is going to happen next? Read our latest research. noodlesresearch.com/research…
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Noodles retweeted
The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetterAug 3
BREAKING: A source close to Iranian officials says Tehran has documented a pattern of oil market manipulation tied to Axios reporting and Trump administration insiders, including evidence of a $9 billion insider trading operation linked to Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. The documented timeline of the $9 billion insider profit: Between April and May 2026, a series of highly suspiciously timed trades in oil futures markets preceded major Iran war and deal announcements, each tied to reporting by Axios. On March 23, approximately $500–580 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump announced he was postponing strikes on Iran, oil dropped. On April 7, roughly $950–960 million in shorts were placed hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran, oil fell 15 percent. On April 17, approximately $760 million in shorts were placed 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil dropped. On April 21, around $430 million in shorts were placed 15 minutes before Trump extended the ceasefire, oil dropped again. On May 6, nearly $920 million to $1.7 billion in crude oil shorts were placed approximately 70 minutes before an Axios scoop claimed the U.S. and Iran were near a "14-point agreement." Oil dropped 12 percent. Traders made an estimated $125 million in profit, while Iran called the May 6 Axios report "the Americans' wish list," and completely false. A senior Iranian official previously told Drop Site News that Iran privately warned VP JD Vance during Switzerland talks that Kushner and Witkoff were "abusing" negotiations, being "more interested in exploiting insider knowledge to profit in financial markets than reaching a deal."
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Noodles retweeted
Big congrats to our friend in the NILF TG who has "NILF aspirations" written on the top of his FOMO bio and clearly demonstrating it by being the #2 trader of CATE on SOL with a 7 FIGURE PNL. We hope to produce the same kind of runner here in the next few months once @ponsdotfamily @MEADGod get V2 rolled out for us... and maybe others will follow the NILF aspirations model for their own success. Cheers to our designated RYOSHI of NILF @ckp3910 ...what a CHAD, even updated his NILF thesis on @fomo 30 minutes ago while up 7 figures on a separate play, conviction and authentically a NILF. $NILF
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KOSPI vs SPX, July close. 30D: -31.39%. 90D: -15.43%. 1Y: +52.66%. Won weakness masks a structural re-rating in semiconductor exposure. Korea is the equity proxy for the AI supply chain. noodlesresearch.com/terminal
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TA-35 vs SPX, July close. 30D: +1.54%. 90D: -10.03%. 1Y: +15.91%. The smallest market with the highest geopolitical beta. TA-35 relative performance is a real-time risk gauge. noodlesresearch.com/terminal
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Nikkei 225 vs SPX, July close. 30D: -10.06%. 90D: +2.10%. 1Y: +31.52%. Yen weakness flatters dollar-denominated returns. Strip the currency and the re-rating story gets tested. noodlesresearch.com/terminal
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Bitcoin is in the blue phase of the halving cycle. Day 828. On our map this is the bear band: the deepest drawdowns happen here, and it is the phase that comes before the recovery.
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Noodles Cycle Index: 78. Phase: BEAR. Last confirmed signal: SELL at $126,000 (Oct 6, 2025). Next projected: BUY, ~Oct 17, 2026. 83 days. The cycle does not negotiate with sentiment. noodlesresearch.com/terminal
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This speech is horrific. The audience is in stunned silence. Trump attacks Jimmy Kimmel, Jimmy Fallon, and Steve Colbert as “talentless” - then calls Senator Adam Schiff an “ugly” “watermelon head” on a “pencil neck.” Trump is the biggest embarrassment in American history.
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Replying to @SenLummis
So he passed the law AFTER he already made his money?
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Noodles retweeted
The moment the vamps stop is when the trenches heal. We just observed multiple vamps for the cyber narrative. The one that migrated is currently at $2k. 🦇 More of the same coin means less runners, pmav anti vamp tech prevents this and enables the moonshot. 🦇
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🇦🇷 The hate against Messi came out of nowhere, and it has nothing to do with football. Here's what's actually going on... Messi lifted the World Cup in December 2022 and the entire planet lost its mind celebrating. Three and a half years later, a chunk of the internet suddenly decided he's a villain. Nothing on the pitch changed. Same guy, same career, twenty years of footage anyone can check in under a minute. What changed is the feed. Villain edits started outperforming legend edits and the algorithm noticed. A 2018 MIT study tracked 126,000 claims across 3 million X users. False stories spread six times faster than true ones and got retweeted 70% more often. Outrage simply beats accuracy at getting attention. None of this needs a single big lie either. Illusory truth effect: see a claim enough times and it starts feeling true even when you know it's false, and the effect survives fact checks. Football is basically the most documented thing on earth. Every match, every angle, every ref decision, all archived. The narrative still won anyway. If the algorithm can flip public opinion on the most watched athlete alive, it can flip it on anyone with no footage to fall back on. Source: @LeoMessiFanZone, @therosieum / Writer: Sol
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Noodles retweeted
Cristiano Ronaldo, le roi de la simulation. Par contre, à la fin de la vidéo, Messi montre encore à quel point il est solide physiquement.
Qui a cette vidéo drôle de Ronaldo
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Noodles retweeted
رونالدو يتكلم عن الفساد؟ ياحبيبي انت اكبر فاسد بالحياة لولا الفساد كانك عبارة عن نكرة
🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨💣💣💣 الاسطورة كريستيانو وضع لايك لصحفية وصحفي اسباني يتهمون الأرجنتين بالفساد في كؤوس العالم قبل نهائي الأرجنتين ضد اسبانيا: الأرجنتين، فريق كان من المفترض أن يُقصى قبل خمس مباريات تقريبًا، بفضل مساعدة الفيفا، إحدى أكثر المؤسسات فسادًا على وجه الأرض، ولذلك فأنا لا أخشى الأرجنتين على الإطلاق، بل أرتعب منها. أعتقد أننا لا نلعب ضد الأرجنتين، بل ضد مؤسسة الفيفا بأكملها التي تريد منح كأس العالم لميسي، تمامًا كما حدث قبل أربع سنوات في قطر. أسعار التذاكر تحوّل ما كان من المفترض أن يكون تجربة شعبية إلى شيء مقتصر على قلة مختارة. الأسعار ليست شعبية على الإطلاق. كرة القدم، وهي رياضة شعبية، لم تعد كذلك. أعتقد أن الفيفا منظمة مكشوفة، أشبه بالمافيا، ومخزية، وأن كرة القدم تستمر رغم سلوك هذه الهيئة المُخربة. مع ذلك، سنستمتع بالمباراة، ولكن ليس لأن الفيفا هي من فرضت الشروط. @CallHimGoat
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Noodles retweeted
BREAKING: Trump just announced a ground invasion of Iran. As you already know, this is my theory since the begin. But it will happen after the World Cup.
For weeks, while dozens of “deal imminent” headlines flooded every outlet, we said the same thing. The deal will fail. Israel will sabotage it. Lebanon is the epicenter. And the US will eventually be forced to invade. We called out Axios and Barak Ravid while everyone amplified them. Community notes confirmed it before the media corrected anything. We said the MOU dies in the summer. That Israel will not stop in Lebanon. They pushed past the Litani River and occupied Beaufort Castle. During the negotiations. We said the deal was not for Iran. It was for the bond market. Every headline bought 48 hours of lower oil and cooler yields. We said the pretext will come. On June 3, a Hellfire missile hit a tanker near Kharg Island. Today, another tanker struck. Three crew missing. Trump claiming he seized 22 ships in the dark. The ceasefire is a word on paper. But none of this is the point. The point is what comes next. Air campaigns do not produce regime change. Never have. Not in Vietnam, not in Iraq, not in Libya. In December 2025, Trump signed automatic draft registration into law for every male 18 to 26. You do not build a conscription list for a war you plan to win from the air. The reality is only this: facts and patterns. Predicting markets or geopolitics, it is still patterns and information. The difference is whether you read them before or after everyone else. Read the full framework here. noodlesresearch.com/research…
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