controlled confidence, compounded
tomorrow
Joined November 2021
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The winners are not the ones who know the most about AI.
They’re the ones who leverage AI to amplify their human strengths:
Judgment
Empathy
Creativity
Strategy
Meaning-making
Leadership
AI lifts the ceiling. Humans decide what to build under it.
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Initial jobless claims down to 194k ... fourth lowest level going back to the 1960s
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Pending home sales deteriorated sharply in September, with year/year growth -12.7%, down from -2.9% previous month and marking weakest reading in three years
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September housing starts -5.2% m/m vs. +1.9% est. & -5.9% prior (rev down from -2.6%) … building permits -0.2% vs. -1.3% est. & -2.1% prior
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October @philadelphiafed Services Index dropped to -23.6 vs. –22.0 prior … new orders +2.8 vs -2.2 prior; prices paid +42.1 vs. +37.8 prior; employment +12.0 vs. +19.0 prior
control^3 retweeted
October @NAHBhome builder sentiment dropped to 29 vs. 31 est. & 32 in prior month, lowest since June 2012, as mortgage rates and affordability challenges continue to sideline homebuyers
Whatever you’re going through won’t last forever, and it isn’t the end of your story. #revelations 7
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Newmark found that $179B in low-rate debt maturing through 2028 is exposed.
Roughly 78% of fixed-rate securitized commercial real estate debt maturing through 2028 carries an interest rate well below the current yield of 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds.
#CommercialRealEstate
bisnow.com/news/national/cap…
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September import prices (blue) +1.1% m/m vs. +0.5% prior (revised down from +0.7%); export prices (orange) +2.2% m/m vs. +1.2% prior (revised up from +0.6%)
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Large US bank stocks are under historic pressure:
The KBW Bank Index has dropped for 6 consecutive weeks, its longest streak since the 2008 Financial Crisis.
This also marks its 3rd-longest streak this century.
Over this span, the index has fallen -11%, to its lowest level since the first week of June.
Bank of America, $BAC, State Street, $STT, and Citigroup, $C, were among the worst performers over this period, declining -18%, -14%, and -10%, respectively.
This comes amid rising investor concerns over AI disrupting financial services and higher interest rate expectations.
Furthermore, mixed Q3 2026 earnings results reported last week failed to ease the pressure.
Large US bank stocks are having a terrible year.
