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"When people experience a shock to their incomes and politicians fail to respond with protective measures, trust in mainstream parties falls."
Thanks to @graceblakeley for reviewing ANTI FASCIST ECONOMICS in light of the Saxony-Anhalt election result.
📚 Preorder your copy today. Link below.
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Embeddings are everywhere in modern AI, but the word "embedding" is doing a lot of different jobs.
A token embedding is a learned row in a vocabulary matrix. A contextual embedding is a hidden-state vector whose value depends on the surrounding sequence. A sentence or document embedding usually requires another step => some pooling or model-specific readout that turns variable-length representations into one fixed-size vector. These are related ideas, but they are not interchangeable.
The geometry is learned too. There is nothing inherently semantic about a vector just because it has 768 or 1,024 dimensions. The training objective has to shape the space so that useful pairs score well and unrelated examples separate. That is why contrastive training, hard negatives, pooling strategy, normalization, and the similarity function matter so much in modern retrieval systems.
This also explains several production bugs that look harmless at first. Cosine similarity and dot product are not generally the same, though they coincide for unit-normalized vectors. Changing the embedding model while keeping the same dimensionality does not preserve the coordinate system. Ignoring query/document prefixes can change results for models trained asymmetrically. Changing preprocessing or pooling can invalidate an existing index even when every vector still has the expected shape.
I put together a technical handbook that works through embeddings from first principles => token lookup tables, contextual representations, pooling, cosine/dot/L2 geometry, contrastive learning, dense retrieval, hard negatives, Matryoshka representations, multilingual and multimodal embeddings, and the implementation details that matter when these vectors are used for search and RAG.
The mental model I kept coming back to while writing it is simple => an embedding is useful geometry learned for a purpose. To understand one, you need to know what was mapped, how the vector was produced, what objective shaped the space, and how those vectors are compared.
Sharing the handbook here:
A survey of 4,000 women in urban India finds that fear of street harassment shapes whether 70 percent of them work. Past-year victimization is especially high in Delhi, at 65 percent, from Lori A. Beaman, @seema_econ, and Anisha Sharma nber.org/papers/w35738
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Friends don't let friends use GHSL's global city database!
GHSL classifies a huge share of Bihar as urban. It isn't!! This is what GHSL's "Hajipur megacity" looks like!
We released a set of urban polygons that work a LOT better in South Asia: cities.devdatalab.org
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🚨 Happening tomorrow (Friday)! 🚨 NBER virtual conference on the macroeconomic effects of population aging.
We have a great lineup of papers on the topic, for what promises to be a very interesting day. Please tune in!
nber.org/conferences/macroec…
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🚨
Announcing OpenCensus, a new project with
@EzraKarger
We are transcribing the historical US censuses and releasing them as open data
2.6 million people so far in 1940, browse here:
opencensus.us
The share of employment in agriculture is systematically higher in lower-income countries, illustrating the substantial gaps remaining in structural transformation across countries.
Read our new VoxDevLit to learn more: voxdev.org/voxdevlit/agricul…
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Increasing data on the fiscal cost and benefits of immigration is available. @tomaspueyo puts it all together here.
在AI冲击下,印度的软件服务外包行业几乎没有显现出被挤占市场的迹象。荷兰国际集团最新的调查显示,软件服务出口占印度国内生产总值的比重,已经从疫情之前的 3.3%上升至大约5.2%。同一时期,包含财务、会计、工程、研究与数据分析在内的商业服务,占GDP比重反而翻了一倍以上,达到3.3%。
荷兰国际集团亚太区研究负责人Deepali Bhargava指出,“在印度与菲律宾,对AI带来行业颠覆的担忧尚且为时过早。现有迹象表明行业正在适应变革,而非走向衰退。人工智能正在改变外包业务的内容,并没有降低对外包服务的整体需求。”业务增长正逐步从数据录入、单据核验、客户支持这类重复性工作,转向数据分析、软件开发等高附加值业务。与此同时,风险管理、工程设计以及研发类服务在印度也迎来旺盛的市场需求。
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Welch Labs 最新力作来袭!图解 AI 深度指南
想真正看懂 ChatGPT、DeepSeek 和 AI 视频生成背后的底层原理?《The Welch Labs Illustrated Guide to AI》用精美的视觉图表、直观的几何视角与配套 Python 代码,带你从最基础感知机一路通往最前沿的 AI 机制!
📖 亮点速览
全书 376 页,融合脑洞大开的思考练习与实战代码(含配套 GitHub 仓库)
覆盖 9 大核心主题:梯度的几何美学、AlexNet 的转折时刻、Scaling Laws 边界、Transformer 机制以及图像/视频生成原理
双页阅读体验:每一章均紧扣 Welch Labs 经典视频,专为深度自学与 AI 课程设计
---
可以自行上Welch Labs官网购买实体
pdf免费的网上都有,为了保护版权这里不提供下载链接
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internet diffusion is associated with national declines in religiosity
academic.oup.com/socrel/adva…
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📣 It’s here!
After 4 waves of data collection, we are excited to release the first version of the ATTCLIMATE panel dataset! 🎉 @mguinjoan
📅 4 waves
🌍 2023–2025
One dataset to study how attitudes towards climate change evolve over time. 🧵👇
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A public-use version of the Open Research Unconditional income Study (ORUS) dataset is now posted! This RCT paid $1000/month to a treatment group for 3 years. Test your favorite hypotheses about the effects of guaranteed income!
data.openresearchlab.org/
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Volume 4!
Mapping every urban area in the world with polygons and names! over 400,000 updates in India today!
revolutionarygis.wordpress.c…
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When geopolitical shocks collide with fiscal pivots – can portfolios remain resilient?
Partner Content by LGT Group
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Today, I am giving a keynote address at the 3rd Inter-American Development Bank Research Conference: Demographic Transition and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, on “A Recent Population History of Latin America and the Caribbean.”
The slides are here:
sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Slide…
This includes much of the material I have discussed here on X over the last year. But the punchline: the total fertility rate of Latin America and the Caribbean is now 1.5, and no country except Haiti, Guyana, French Guiana, and Saint Martin is above the replacement rate. On top of that, Latin America and the Caribbean is a region of outmigration, which compounds the challenges. Much of the future of the region will be downstream from this fact.
Comments are always most useful!
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朱啸虎对腾讯 AI 的真实评价。
朱啸虎昨天的新访谈,有几个观点我还是比较认可。总结下:
第一,模型 API 这门生意,很难长期维持高毛利。
Anthropic 现在能做到 60% 左右的毛利,核心还是模型智能能力比较强,尤其 Coding 这类场景,过去一段时间确实有明显优势。
但这个优势已经开始越过临界点了。当其他模型逐渐追上,价格可能只有你的十分之一,怎么可能一直维持这么高的溢价?
哪怕 Anthropic 的模型未来几年还能保持领先,但如果智能能力只强 10%,价格却高 50%,用户真的会一直买单吗?
智能最终会越来越像电和水。模型 API 这一层,长期可能就是 10% 到 20% 的毛利。这是比较合理的。
一旦能力逐渐趋同,价格战很难避免,大家也会越来越有动力切换到更便宜的模型。Anthropic 现在着急上市,也可能和这个窗口期有关。
第二,AI 办公的市场肯定比 AI Coding 大很多。
AI Coding 最先跑出来,很重要的一个原因是工程师本身就对 AI 的接受程度就比较高。而且 Coding 是一个特别适合 AI 的场景,任务相对明确,结果也比较容易验证。
但 AI Coding 只是办公的一部分。真正更大的市场,还是整个的白领市场,也就是现在大家都在拼的 AI 办公。
再进一步,AI 办公本质就是通用 Agent。之前的 Coding 只是一个垂直场景,办公是整个白领市场。就像当年微软的 Office 一样,你会发现只要有电脑的地方,就会有 Office。
第三,AI 办公产品的竞争力是 Model + Harness + Product + Context。
今年前半年,行业聊 Harness 比较多。但 100%可以预测到,随着 Harness 这一层趋同,最终的竞争肯定会转移到 Context。
因为 AI 办公的杀手级应用场景是工作,诸如分析数据,写 PPT 和分析报告等等,这类任务的交付结果,直接取决于 AI 到底掌握了多少企业的工作上下文。
就像一个新员工一样,你想让它把工作干好,又不让它了解背景,那即便他再聪明也无济于事。
Context 肯定会成为这一轮 AI 办公竞争中非常重要的壁垒。
基于这三个判断,朱啸虎也聊到了腾讯的 AI 发展。相对还是比较客观。
当然,我也不否认朱啸虎有他的局限性,大家主要看看他的思考逻辑,是不是对我们理解一家公司和趋势有启发。
腾讯在这一轮 AI 浪潮里,目前看还是非常典型的后发制人。
最开始混元模型,说实话,在业界都没什么存在感。但现在做到 Hy4 preview,已经逐步的挤进国内第一梯队了。
到了这一轮 AI 办公,WorkBuddy 反而跑出来了,而且已经成为国内第一梯队的办公 Agent 应用。
朱啸虎说金沙江也购买了 WorkBuddy 的企业账号。
为什么?
一方面当然是 WorkBuddy 本身的产品体验不错。另一个很重要的原因是金沙江本来就在用企业微信。
企业微信里已经沉淀了公司的组织关系、历史沟通,再加上腾讯会议、腾讯文档,本身就在同一个体系里。对于 WorkBuddy 来说,这些都是现成的 Context。
如果换成一个独立的 AI 办公产品,就要重新连接知识库、文档、会议,甚至重新处理组织关系和权限。
朱啸虎还有一个判断我也很认可。现在模型能力当然还重要,因为大家还处在交替领先的阶段。但只要模型之间的差距继续缩小,技术优势就很难成为长期壁垒。
到了那个时候,竞争又会回到传统互联网的几个指标上。比如谁掌握了入口、谁有获客优势、谁能拿到用户的历史数据。这些恰恰是腾讯这样的公司最有优势的地方。
如果把去年的 ChatBot、AI Coding,再到今年的 AI 办公放在一起对比,会发现 AI 应用的竞争焦点确实一直在往上层迁移。
最开始的 ChatBot 拼的是模型能力,那时候谁的模型能力强,谁的产品体验就更好。但到了后来的 AI Coding,大家发现,光模型强还不够,Harness 也很重要。因为在长程任务里,模型怎么调用工具,怎么处理错误,会直接影响最终的结果。
现在到了 AI 办公,又开始发现,Model 和 Harness 上面,还有 Context。
所以我一直觉得,AI 办公这种通用级 Agent,最后大概率还是大厂或者超级明星创业公司的生意。因为做到这一步,已经很难靠一个单点能力赢了,后面牵扯的东西会越来越多。
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🚨The World's Largest LNG Hub Cannot Bypass Hormuz
QatarEnergy LNG's Ras Laffan complex, the merged legacy Qatargas and RasGas train system, runs about 77 mtpa of nameplate capacity, roughly 3x the next-largest single LNG site anywhere.
Nearly every cargo it produces has to clear the Strait of Hormuz.
When the war disrupted the strait in late February, it did not just delay ships.
Attacks on the Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities forced QatarEnergy to actually halt LNG production in early March, with only partial train restarts since.
Ras Laffan lost both things at once, output and its only exit route.
Production stopped in March after the facility attacks, and whatever comes back online still has to clear a strait under fire.
That double hit is why Asian spot prices have moved this hard.
themerchantsnews.substack.co…
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普林斯顿大学《机器学习导论》免费公开讲义!
由 Jia Deng、Ruth Fong、Vikram Ramaswamy 教授编写(COS 324)。
系统覆盖: • 监督学习(线性回归/分类、梯度下降) • 无监督学习(聚类、降维、矩阵分解) • 深度学习(前馈网络、CNN、反向传播) • 强化学习(MDP) • 数学基础(线代、微积分、概率统计) • 伦理与NLP应用
讲义质量高、数学扎实,非常适合自学打基础。
完整讲义免费下载:princeton-introml.github.io