I was no exception to the "If you think you've got 20 pounds to lose, you probably have 40-50 pounds to lose" rule of thumb. Down 40.5 pounds in 5 months, here's what I did:

CPT Chris Olave Bijan Robinson Devaughn Vele Alvin Kamara Brian Robinson Jahan Dotson A DraftKings lotto winning showdown lineup with six skill players, something that’s happened about 1.2% of the time. What a banger to cap off Week 4.

Low-carnage W4 had an impact on when I think the Splash World Championship will end. Down to 63.9% to be resolved by W16

Ran the current Splash World Championship field with everything else normal but forcing Miami to go 0-17, the results * Contest resolved by W16: 63.9% normal sim, 15.0% if Miami goes 0-17 * resolved by W17: 74%, 27.0% * entries alive entering double-pick weeks: 368 normal sim, 684 if winless Miami * Multiple users survive W18: 16.4%, 59.2% * Average surviving entries: 7.9

why do all the good picks keep getting hurt

There were 1,048 JAX>SF>KC entries in the Splash World Championship entering Week 4, here's how they were split up MIN: 419 BAL: 357 IND: 126 BUF: 55 SEA: 40

Early look at the Week 5 survivor board. Cowboys in a tier of their own at home vs. Jalon Daniels, do you want Bengals at Miami or home against TEN in W8, can Houston finally find a win on the road against Cam Ward?

Awesome MNF matchup on deck, few things that stood out to me after writing the Showdown Breakdown: * Can the Saints do anything to force ATL away from Bijan? Falcons are dead last in PROE, dropping back on 46% of situation-neutral snaps and are top-5 in rushing efficiency. Saints rank 31st in rush success rate allowed and are missing multiple pieces on defense. * Entirely opposite offensive environment for Saints who rank fourth in PROE & now get a Falcons defense that has faced the league's highest situation-neutral pass rate * Falcons D/ST ($3600) is interesting on a slate with a handful of cheap skill players, league-high 44.2% pressure rate, Shough dropping back a ton without LT Kelvin Banks. Plenty of DFS upside even if game produces points. * Bryce Lance ($1800) is running a route on 77% of dropbacks but earning just a 6.6% target share, going to be a popular option as a means to play Bijan, London, Olave, etc

The “dolphins aren’t winning lol” cohort having to make a survivor selection in week 6

Things that I found interesting when writing up DET-CAR: * Can Carolina’s OL hold up against Detroit pass rush so they can find explosives against the Lions secondary? * How do Panthers protect their secondary with Jaycee Horn & Mike Jackson out? If they leave their backup corners isolated can Jamo finally shake loose? * how condensed does Carolina’s target tree get with Legette/Coker out? Who steps up behind Tet? Brycen Tremayne ran a route on 78% of dropbacks for a 15% target share on an 18.8-yard aDOT last week * Keep feeding Chuba Hubbard

Athan Kaliakmanis Darius Cooper Efton Chism III Ian Thomas I’m almost certain that’s a preseason lineup I played this August

Very few surprises in Splash $1K ownership this week MIN + BAL: 73.0% projected, 73.0% actual MIN: 40.3% → 39.3% BAL: 32.7% → 33.7% SEA: 7.9% → 6.7% BUF: 4.8% → 4.7% Clear miss was IND: 2.1% projected → 6.2% actual

Athan Kaliakmanis looks like if Nigel “the leg” Gruff learned how to throw the ball

Athan Kaliakmanis bomb to Treylon Burks is the most preseason ass TD the regular season has ever seen

Daniel Jones vs Athan Kaliakmanis at 9:08am ct

a gentleman's game

Had MIN -> BAL -> SEA -> BUF ordering right but didn’t have ownership compressing this hard, had 11.8% total ownership projected outside the top-5 vs. 5.2% actual. Still think it’ll end up being slightly more evenly distributed on Splash

Down 23-14 with 3 minutes to go in the 1H as a 15-point home favorite against a bad Maryland team, Nebraska loses that game 10/10 times in my lifetime. Instead they hang 34 unanswered, move to 5-0 & have a ranked matchup on deck against the defending champs. There’s something in the air in Lincoln.

Bagent bulls are back. Has been a legit freak in the preseason - 69.4% completion rate, 8.2 YPA, 4:1 TD:INT. PFF had him 12th in adjusted completion rate, 91.1 career preseason passing grade and is the only player with 100+ attempts & 0 turnover-worthy plays over the last decade. Right decision by Ben Johnson

A new top dog for SNF: Jahmyr Gibbs (28.5%) vs. CAR