mainly trade, data, R, economics, politics

Vancouver, BC
Joined May 2009
In case it wasn’t already obvious: being nice to Putin hasn’t achieved peace. And it never will. Luckily there is at least one easy option that stops Russia’s ballistic missiles from killing civilians and destroying power grids. Starlink. Ukrainian drones can destroy the launchers, but need access to Starlink over Russian territory to navigate effectively. This would cost American taxpayers nothing. It would save lives. And it would put real pressure on Putin. My latest in the Washington Post:
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Keith Head retweeted
Churchill could have shortened WW2 by years if he had just “done a deal” with Hitler. George Washington could have done a deal to end the American Revolution. Zelenskyy is in good company.
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Europe, or anyone else for that matter, would have to be mad to depend in anyway on Starlink for its defence.
Elon Musk ordered the slowdown of the military version of Starlink that Ukraine relies on, according to U.S. officials and people familiar with the matter who spoke to The Wall Street Journal. Musk wrote on X after it became public that “any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.” Trump told reporters Monday he didn’t know who was responsible, “but I would like to find out.” The Journal reports Musk and Trump spoke by phone soon after the slowdown became public, according to two people, and one said they also discussed it before. Some U.S. officials told the Journal Musk acted unilaterally and Trump did not order retribution against Ukraine. That conflicts with earlier reports. Reuters reported the order came from inside the White House, and The Telegraph reported Musk proposed it to Trump. A senior U.S. official told Reuters the president made no such request. Source: wsj.com/world/ukraine-starli…
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Keith Head retweeted
The fatal challenge to heterodox economics is that there isn't actually orthodox economics. Just take a few recent Nobels: behavioral, information failure, institutions, bubbles, financial fragility, labor monopsony (sort of), Schumpeterian creative destruction, etc. Not to mention RCTs which are emblematic of how much economic research is empirical and only lightly if at all structural. The real difference is methods. Heterodox economics is an avowedly political project not a social scientific effort to better understand the world. And I have nothing against political projects just shouldn't confuse the two.
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"When the election is over there needs to be a bipartisan reckoning for Mr. Trump’s budding alliance with the Kremlin against Ukraine, Europe and American interests." -WSJ Editorial Board wsj.com/opinion/to-russia-wi…
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Aujourd’hui, c’est la République qui est attaquée. L’ultra-violence dont tout le pays est témoin est inédite. Ces milliers de casseurs n’en ont rien à faire du mouvement social en cours ou des revendications lycéennes. Ils ne sont là que pour frapper, brûler, casser. Saccager les mairies, s’en prendre à tous les symboles de l’Etat et aux services publics, brûler les camions de pompiers, piller et incendier les commerces, c’est injustifiable et inacceptable. La République ne peut pas céder. Les centaines de milliers manifestants pacifiques venus protester contre la vie chère et l’injustice, pour l’éducation et pour défendre leur dignité voient ce soir leurs revendications et leurs demandes légitimes assourdies par le fracas des casseurs. Il est urgent que le calme revienne, que la République reprenne le dessus et que la France sorte de cette spirale de la violence qui finira par tous nous engloutir. Ce qu’il faut pour notre pays, c’est un grand sursaut républicain.
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Nikki Haley: “There are certain decisions that will go down as history-defining moments. This is one of them. It's a terrible misjudgment of Putin, who has made it clear he wants to destroy the West. We shouldn't help him do it.” Mitt Romney: “Do we prize liberty or do we prize power and purse? No more clear test than the choice between Ukraine and Russia. Abandon Ukraine and we abandon liberty. Eventually even our own.” Thom Tillis: “Beyond irresponsible. What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand? It’s unconscionable that this administration is capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine and butchers innocent civilians every single day. If the President wants to actually bring down energy prices, he can do it by solving the Iran problem, not by doing a solid for Vladimir Putin.” Laura Loomer: “Putin’s goal is to take Ukraine. Then he will take Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and he will make his way through all of Europe. People obsess over personalities too much. You could have an election in Ukraine tomorrow and Putin would still find a reason to be at war. Russia INVADED Ukraine. Not the other way around. Zelenskyy’s removal from office won’t stop Russian imperialism. It’s not about Zelenskyy. It’s about Putin. It’s always been about Putin.” John Cornyn: “Helping Putin in Ukraine is reckless. He would not stop with Ukraine and our NATO allies would be next. Putin is fanatically committed to restoring Russia’s glory days, calling the collapse of the Soviet Union ‘the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century’ and claiming Russia was ‘robbed’ in the breakup. . . Congress Must Investigate Trump’s Aid and Comfort to Putin.”
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Congress has a lame-duck session. The President has an agenda: supplemental, reconciliation, Ballroom, etc… I think the agenda is dead. Many of us won’t fund these things knowing he is propping up a dictator’s invasion and throwing an ally under the bus.
Tillis. Not holding back. Also saw @JohnCornyn just tweet “Lindsey would be appalled.” But key question…what can/is the senate going to do about it?
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Beyond irresponsible. What part of enforcing a law passed 86-11 by the Senate does the President and his advisors not understand? It’s unconscionable that this administration is capitulating to a Russian dictator who illegally invaded Ukraine and butchers innocent civilians every single day. If the President wants to actually bring down energy prices, he can do it by solving the Iran problem, not by doing a solid for Vladimir Putin. apnews.com/article/russia-sa…
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The Starlink restriction over Ukraine is a perfect illustration of the danger of relying on US technology. Finding alternatives that aren’t Chinese is difficult and expensive- but I expect the drive to accelerate
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🇮🇹🇺🇦 WOW! WHAT A SPEECH! WHAT POWERFUL WORDS FROM ITALIAN PRIME MINISTER GIORGIA MELONI! Here is the full five-minute excerpt of her speech devoted to Ukraine and Donald Trump. “Russia has launched a new autumn campaign against Ukraine. Unable to advance on the battlefield, Moscow has increasingly turned its attacks against civilians: power plants, residential buildings, hospitals, and even buses carrying people to work, as in the horrific massacre in Kramatorsk. This is a strategy through which Russia seeks to subjugate Ukraine with terror, cold, and darkness, simply because it has failed to conquer it on the battlefield. The facts contradict Kremlin propaganda and those who spread it here. Since the beginning of the year, Russia has captured very little territory, and in September it lost much of what it had previously seized. This halt did not happen by chance. It was achieved through Ukraine’s courage and Western support, including that of Italy. This resistance is the only effective instrument for bringing Russia to the negotiating table. I respect and understand the passionate debate on this issue, including within this chamber, because nobody here wants war. We all want peace. The difference lies in how we intend to achieve it. As I see it, supporting Ukraine is not an alternative to peace. It is what makes peace possible. Because if an aggressor expects its opponent to surrender, why would it negotiate? Surrender is not peace. It is conquest. If Ukraine stopped defending itself tomorrow, as many suggest, we would not have peace. We would be discussing the occupation of a European nation and the return of Soviet imperialism. Personally, I do not miss those times. I do not miss Russian tanks crushing uprisings in Prague and Budapest. I do not miss the Berlin Wall. And nobody will ever convince me that the surrender of those defending their freedom can be called ‘peace.’ The peace we want, and the peace we are working toward, even at the cost of concessions, is a just peace, because only a just peace can endure. Only a just peace can protect Europe and our interests. That is why our government's position remains unchanged: support for Ukraine, with particular attention to civilians, pressure on Moscow, and Euro-Atlantic unity remain the pillars of our actions. In this context, we must address Donald Trump's diesel agreement with Russia. This is a decision I consider extremely risky. Of course, we all recognize the need to contain fuel prices, which place a heavy burden on families, including Italian families. But we must understand that rising prices are primarily linked to the war in Iran, not Ukraine. Legitimizing Moscow, whose bombs continue to fall on Ukrainian cities, providing new revenues to finance the war, and weakening sanctions are all factors we cannot ignore. And they contradict everything Western nations, including the United States, have done to force Putin to the negotiating table. An energy ceasefire is a different matter, one that Italy supports, and we are grateful to President Zelenskyy for Ukraine's immediate willingness to agree to it. Now we expect Russia to stop attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Finally, at such a difficult moment, when so many variables are beyond our control, there is at least one thing that depends on us: We must ensure that Europe does not simply stand by and watch, because the terms of peace will affect our continent and our security.” — Giorgia Meloni, Prime Minister of Italy
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Zelensky speaking the truth. The US is now a Russian ally, and the Starlink decision is a massive benefit for the Russian military (and it has nothing to do with Ukraine attacking Russian refineries). The US is literally riding to Putin’s rescue.
BREAKING: Volodymyr Zelenskyy tells @piersmorgan he has been betrayed by Trump, that Elon Musk and the US deliberately cut off Starlink and people are being killed as a result “This is not the right side of history,” he says. “It is a pity that we are losing a strong partner” On Musk and Starlink he says: “This decision will bring a lot of human losses. Of course, people will die” “I am sure they knew what they did, absolutely. Because it was 1am at night, Starlink was blocked by SpaceX and the United States” “It’s not just about attack. It’s also about defending life. So people were killed because, not enough destroying, not enough interceptors, including interceptors with Starlink, which didn't work. Of course.” Asked if he’s angry with Musk, Zelenskyy says: “Yes, I think he is not right. It's a big mistake.”
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This is true of my personal experience with AI. It doesn’t really save me time on things I was already doing; mainly leads me to do new things that previously would have been too labour intensive: eg create tikz figures
Unpopular opinion: In 5 years, we'll need more software engineers than we do today. Not fewer. Everyone is calculating how many developers AI can replace. If a team of 3 can now do the work of 10, surely the other 7 are out of a job? I think that completely misses what's about to happen. For decades, the biggest constraint on software wasn't the lack of problems worth solving. It was the cost of solving them. Millions of businesses still run on spreadsheets, emails, WhatsApp messages, and outdated software. Not because they're happy with it, but because spending $200,000 on a custom system never made financial sense. Now imagine that same system costs $20,000. Suddenly, millions of businesses that couldn't afford software development become potential customers. Projects that were never viable become viable. Companies that already build software can afford to do ten times more. And here's the part people underestimate: the cheaper software becomes, the more reasons we'll find to build it. Of course, some jobs will disappear. Certain tasks that once required entire teams will be handled by a single engineer. But assuming the amount of software the world needs is fixed is a pretty strange assumption, especially in an industry where we've barely scratched the surface of what can be automated. I could be wrong, but I think we're heading toward an explosion in software demand, not the death of software engineering. We're confusing the declining cost of writing code with the declining demand for software engineers. They're not the same thing.
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Europe can NOT rely on a product that can be turned off based on how one man feels when waking up in the morning. That is a security threat and can’t be ignored. 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 🇵🇱
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Replying to @RepBrianFitz
Didn’t Congress just pass the Lindsey Graham sanction law and Trump is just ignoring it?
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It is sickening that the USA is now lifting sanctions on Russian fuel, and transparently ridiculous to blame Ukraine for the spike in prices that obviously began with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Putin is murdering innocent Ukrainian civilians every day. The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives. And yet the White House is apparently determined to force American drivers to bankroll Putin’s slaughter. It won’t work and I doubt it will make much difference to the price of fuel. If we want Russian oil and gas back on the world market then let’s end this war - with a free, sovereign and independent Ukraine.
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Important context for those who are looking at what's happening in France and comparing it to the US: France is the highest taxed nation in the OECD, whereas the US is near the bottom. We have a LOT more room to use revenue to resolve our fiscal challenges than they do.
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Keith Head retweeted
Ok, this is in progress! Here's a preview (Top-5 pubs from the last ten years with a simple TWFE specification + replication data; matched samples between TWFE, Callaway-Sant'Anna, and Borusyak-Jaravel-Spiess) with thanks to Astra, Kevin Chen, & Jon Roth
Why has no one done the massive AI-assisted "how much do negative weights really matter for difference-in-difference" review paper yet?
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