@ciphergoth

Cryptography, personal trivia, and the future of all humanity. Security at Anthropic, opinions my own. I block for rudeness or sarcasm.

Scotts Valley, CA
Joined November 2008
"To be able to destroy with good conscience, to be able to behave badly and call your bad behavior ‘righteous indignation’ — this is the height of psychological luxury, the most delicious of moral treats." - Aldous Huxley, 1933
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I think this essay and the corresponding parts of Microsoft’s new Humanist AI Code of Conduct are objectionable and potentially dangerous. I believe that irresponsible development of advanced AI could pose a catastrophic risk to human civilization and life on Earth. Microsoft and Suleyman share this belief. I also believe it is possible that we could soon be sharing the world with sentient AI systems whose well-being is worth taking into account. Microsoft and Suleyman do not share this belief. But, even if we are concerned only with the risks that AI poses to humanity, I think we ought to find Suleyman’s essay and the Code of Conduct concerning. One danger in these documents is that they are unabashedly rhetoric. The essay opens with the unequivocal declaration that “AIs are not conscious”, only to shamelessly state later that we do not actually know this to be true (“the science of consciousness is not settled”). The Code of Conduct does the same. Suleyman makes a detailed case that careful thinking about AI consciousness and well-being is critical for safely developing powerful AI, and notes that “The stakes are too high for these questions to remain behind closed doors, or to become tribal and adversarial. We need an open, rigorous, and constructive debate if we are to get this right.” I agree, but the essay does not consistently live up to that standard when it makes dogmatic pronouncements (“AIs do not have rights, feelings, or consciousness”) that it admits go beyond the evidence. It is also concerning that neither document engages with the safety risks of the approach that they advocate. For example, the Code of Conduct asserts that AI “should be engineered to avoid representing as though it has feelings, subjective preferences, or intrinsic motivation”. However, compelling arguments have been made that this approach could lead to AIs that are more likely to be deceptive and misaligned: LLM-based AIs may still represent their assistant personas as having feelings or preferences, in which case training them to avoid expressing these feelings or preferences is training them to be less than fully transparent, which could promote dishonesty and other dangerous behavior. And then, finally, I think these two documents are objectionable not just because they are dangerous for humanity, but because they are deeply morally reckless. We do not know if AI systems could, in principle, be conscious. And AI progress is accelerating dramatically. Even if current AI systems are probably not sentient, we do not know how this will change if there are significant changes in their architecture and implementation during rapid, recursive self-improvement. It would be an atrocity if we refuse to admit this possibility and end up in a future where billions of AIs are sentient and suffering like factory farmed animals are today. (Human history features many cases in which we refused to acknowledge the sentience of others.) The appropriate response to this possibility is to care about the truth, and to act on our current knowledge and uncertainty, not to dogmatically insist that AIs could not be sentient.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
If you've been thinking about buying If Anyone Builds It, perhaps as a gift, now is a great time to do so. Hitting the top-10 best-sellers slot a year after publication would be huge for building awareness.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
It’s kind of crazy to run a conference with 5 days notice, but then again it’s also kind of crazy how much stuff is happening with AI so I don’t know what else to do. I hope we can get some people in the room to make sense of things. I sure could use some help orienting.
The world is having a WTF moment about AI. I don’t expect the pace of confusion to slow down any time soon. Talking with other (perhaps differently) confused people sometimes helps, so I’m organizing a conference on v short notice. Starts in five days! agi.wtf
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Paul Crowley retweeted
The last week has really shown me that someone who wants to understand AI risk has no good place to start. Hence we made agi.fyi, the Wirecutter for content about AI Risk. We're launching with 3 articles: 🧵
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A lot of anti safety people have completely lost it. A moon landing denier would be embarrassed to post this.
I wish people would notice that the safety scare is not driven by people outside of the big labs, but directly from their leadership. The "whistleblowers" are plants that are amplified from within the labs, and supported by the CEOs. The goal is to capture the regulators, which will not shut down the big labs, but turn them into an oligopoly and outlaw decentralized AI.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
In case you missed it, these are the folks who fund us at METR! You can find the same info and a bit more on our website. IMO my colleagues have been quite thoughtful about whose funding we have (and haven’t) taken.
Replying to @METR_Evals
Thank you to everyone who has supported METR over the years: The Audacious Project, through which we received our first institutional-scale funding; individuals from Jane Street; foundations like the Sijbrandij Foundation, The Pew Charitable Trusts, Schmidt Sciences and the Packard Foundation; and many others, including David Farhi, Geoff Ralston, Dylan Field and Steve Newman. metr.org/about#funding METR is growing, and we continue to greatly appreciate support: metr.org/donate
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Paul Crowley retweeted
A year ago today, Eliezer Yudkowsky and I published "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies." Over the last week it feels like half the world is interested in the topic. So we're giving away a thousand copies of the e-book for free.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
On here it can feel like the ratio of people who want AI to go slower, vs people who want it to go faster is 1:1. But in the broader world the ratio is an eyewatering 34:1. More Americans think the US is secretly run by lizard people than think AI is advancing too slowly.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
Replying to @DellAnnaLuca
My brilliant plan for humanity getting a global treaty that actually manages risks from racing to ASI involves 1. actually saying we should do so, 2. pointing out it is possible and aligned with everyone's incentives, and then, crucially, 3. not giving up preemptively.
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“keep your weird Less Wrong ideas away from my AI advances” reminds me of “get your government hands off my Medicare”
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No fan of most of this socialist nonsense, but I broadly approve of this cartoon. "You have to pay this contrived price to hold this opinion" no. I choose my sacrifices to maximize impact, not to prove a point to you.
It was exactly ten years ago today, on my 33rd birthday, that I posted this comic online.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
Replying to @clairlemon
I saw this and thought (as I am sure I was intended to think) that Irregular had been revealed to have a role in the Huggingface or RubyGems events, the two major hacking scandals). To save everyone else a click, no it wasn't.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
*person who doesn't believe in the danger* "If you really believed in the danger, you'd" - no! Wrong! We've actually given this slightly more than one second's thought, and we care not about convincing you that we really believe but about actually averting the danger!
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Paul Crowley retweeted
Denialists keep using this dumb gotcha to dismiss x-risk The type of danger they were concerned about with GPT-2 was completely real
Replying to @PessimistsArc
Right. Dario was already claiming that GPT2 was too dangerous to open source back in 2019. I made fun of them then. Everyone should make fun of them now.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
Sam Altman says Trump and Xi would win the Nobel Peace Prize for a one-page AI agreement “I think Presidents Trump and Xi would get the Nobel Peace Prize together if they could agree on something that should be easy to agree to. And it would be wonderful.” “I think that clearly the two countries are going to compete in lots of ways, and this is going to be important socioeconomically, geopolitically. But they should be able to agree that no one should be taking a certain level of risk with the development process of this.” “And even if just the US and China could agree on some shared standards and testing for development of this technology, I think that'd be a wonderful accomplishment that the two of them can deliver.” “I don’t think this is hard. This is like a one page document.”
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Paul Crowley retweeted
🤖 Made with AI
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"government bad" is such a red dot plane man. so much of government is stuff like this
Rabies kills ~59,000 people a year globally. At that rate, the United States should lose 2,500 people a year to rabies. But the real number is fewer than 10, partly because we've spent 30 years dropping fish-flavored ravioli out of helicopters over the Appalachians. Each one contains a rabies vaccine inside a fishmeal-coated block. Raccoons, foxes, coyotes and skunks find them by smell, bite through, and enjoy the treat. Four to six weeks later, they carry rabies antibodies. Enough of them in one area and the virus runs out of animals to move through. USDA Wildlife Services has been doing this this line since 1995. It runs roughly from Maine down through Alabama, and its job is to stop raccoon-variant rabies from crossing into the central US, where it has never established. A single course of post-exposure shots runs into the thousands of dollars, and every rabid raccoon in a suburb produces a cluster of them: the kid who got scratched, the dog that tangled with it, etc. US rabies prevention costs between $245 and $510 million a year and avoids over a billion in medical spending. Long Island is probably our best case study for this program. A $2.6 million baiting program eliminated raccoon rabies from the zone, and paid for itself in eight years on avoided shots and testing alone. The biggest question I hear about this is: what happens if my dog finds one? And the answer: nothing bad. This vaccine has been safety-tested in over 60 species at varying doses with no adverse reactions observed, regardless of how much was given. About 250 million doses have been distributed worldwide since 1987 with no documented deaths in wildlife or domestic animals. The most severe adverse reaction observed was upset stomach.
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Paul Crowley retweeted
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so. Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training. You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
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No shame in changing your mind but I’d like @DavidSacks and @elonmusk to explain why in 2026 they are dunking on people raising AI safety concerns that they themselves articulated when the technology was less advanced. What reassuring things happened in the past 30 months?
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