@chaseawinteri
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C retweeted
ONE “Twitter Article” comes out claiming everything is hunky dorey in the Iran War and people just conveniently forget:
- 30-Year at 5.547%
- 10-Year at 5.259%
- Diesel at $6.44
- Gasoline at $4.46
- Oil at $104.50
- Japenese Yen: Broken
- Fertilizer: Not reaching markets
- War: 7 Months in with no end in sight
- Mortgage Rates: Through the roof
- Iran: Set to escalate
But yeah, congrats on coming “close-ish” to pre-war oil flows ONLY through a global choke point that wasn’t even closed when this war began.
GREAT SUCCESS!
C retweeted
This is the crucial question that (so far) no one has really been able to answer.
Like it or not, the original goals of the war were not accomplished.
The US has now succeeded in overcoming Iran's blockade in the strait, while simultaneously increasing economic pressure on Iran. But these are tactics to shape an environment, not a strategy for securing something more tangible.
The US needs to decide what it wants, and determine a strategy for how to get it.
Replying to @DEsfandiary
Generally agree, though the extent to which behavior is changed will largely be assessed within the context of what the admin's strategic objectives are - and that's an open question at this point.
nitter.cf/maxmeizlish/status/210…
C retweeted
The flow rate is recovering but at a massive cost to the US Navy, amid increased uncertainty triggering higher premiums, and while the IRGC shows relative restraint at the moment (which won't last)
The shuttle is a short-term workaround but not sustainable in the mid-to long-term
Also, it doesn't include LNG and other commodities, goods etc
Replying to @Amena__Bakr
However neither equals outright victory, or an end to the conflict. We remain in this grey zone with elevated risk on energy infrastructure across the region/ high oil prices/ high shipping and insurance costs / constrained tanker availability. #OOTT
C retweeted
Senior Saudi officials deny meeting in UAE.
Bibi wants to kiss & tell in Yemen.
He has an interest in delivering a blow to the Houthis—and flaunting Israeli-GCC cooperation ahead of elections.
Possible to see Israel act alongside Saudi in Yemen. But at best, the Saudis will walk in tandem. No holding hands.
i24news.tv/en/news/middle-ea…
America’s Hormuz Success Has Yet to Become a Strategic Victory
The fact that Iran is losing some of its ability to control and disrupt the Strait of Hormuz does not mean that the United States has established full control over the waterway.
Ultimately, oil is a physical commodity: either enough of it reaches the global market or it does not. The fact that oil prices remain so high suggests that Washington’s significant operational achievements in the Strait have not yet translated into the strategic and economic outcome it needs.
There are simply too many additional variables. Insurance premiums remain extremely high, tanker availability is constrained, commercial shipping continues to face substantial risks, and maintaining the American military presence required to keep significant volumes of oil moving through the Strait comes at an enormous financial and operational cost.
This raises an equally important question of sustainability. The United States may be able to maintain this level of military protection today, but for how long, and at what cost? That question becomes even more important as Tehran once again intensifies its efforts to disrupt traffic through the Strait.
So there should be no minimizing the American operational achievement. Iran’s strategy in Hormuz has been significantly weakened, and Tehran’s ability to use the Strait as leverage has clearly been challenged. But operational success should not be confused with strategic victory.
The real test is whether Washington can turn its military advantage into a durable situation in which oil flows normally, insurance and transportation costs decline, the extraordinary U.S. military deployment can be reduced, and Iran effectively loses Hormuz as a tool of strategic coercion. We are not there yet.
For now, neither side has full control of the Strait. Iran’s leverage has been substantially weakened, but Washington has not eliminated it. And a strategy that depends indefinitely on an extraordinarily expensive American military presence in the Gulf is not, by itself, a sustainable long-term solution.
#iran
Iran is losing its grip on Hormuz
Regional energy flows are rising, while Tehran’s exports are plunging
As sanctions tighten, the status quo is increasingly costly for Iran
It may respond by escalating
Analysis on @TheTerminal, with @DEsfandiary
C retweeted
The US sees volumes increasing and feels that time is on its side.
Iran sees high global prices, drained inventories, mounting political opposition, and costly military deployments to keep volumes moving and feels that time is on its side.
Ingredients for a continued standoff, with resolution nowhere in sight.
C retweeted
Ed Yardeni: "A more likely explanation for the global bond market rout is that the yen-carry trade is unwinding as the Bank of Japan raises its policy rate, forcing carry traders to sell government bonds they bought worldwide with proceeds from cheap yen loans. This trade allowed many governments run budget deficits without putting upward pressure on their bond yields. Now, the chickens have come home to roost."
Yes, number crunchers know this. Then say 2-3 months to get payment. Iran has until January or so before real pain hits. Then probably even more time as a resistance economy. They may very well lash out if there is no reasonable deal.
"Iran has no comparable way around the strait... the volume of Iranian crude already on vessels outside the blockade has fallen to around 15m barrels from 29m barrels in early September. Kpler expects those barrels to be depleted by early to mid-October." wsj.com/world/middle-east/mi…
C retweeted
On Chinese demand: China has issued what is likely to be the final batch of crude import quotas to independent refiners for 2026, bringing full-year allocations to a new high. Yet record quota availability may do little to lift crude buying, as tight physical supplies and elevated prices have replaced quotas as the more immediate constraints. #OOTT
C retweeted
Find it hard to believe.
Netanyahu has little to offer to the Saudis at the moment as the Israeli establishment is building a coaltion to oust Bibi.
Israel has little to nill to offer on Yemen not even intelligence with worse HUMINT than Saudi/UAE
Israel can only offer air defence tech but not at scale - meanwhile UK, France, Turkey, Ukraine etc can
EXCLUSIVE | Saudi representatives joined an expanded meeting after Netanyahu met UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed, a senior Emirati source tells me.
The source says Netanyahu initiated the meeting. The first part included the two leaders and representatives of Israel and the UAE; representatives of other Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, joined the second part.
They discussed security cooperation, including defensive systems such as Iron Dome; the war with Iran and the Houthis; and establishing a coalition of regional states. According to our information, Israel’s ambassador to the UAE, Yossi Shelley, is responsible for advancing the effort on the Israeli side.
C retweeted
👇Reuters: The workaround for moving Persian Gulf oil through Hormuz is hitting capacity. Ship-to-ship transfers now take ~10 days, while VLCC rates to China have hit a record $1.27m/day.
Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship oil transfers reach limit as Saudi exports surge reut.rs/4hs4rR0 reut.rs/4hs4rR0
Russian President Vladimir Putin imposed sweeping new restrictions on what can be accessed and reported about the country’s energy trade, adding a fresh layer of secrecy about activity in one of the world’s oil-and-gas producing nations bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
C retweeted
"U.S. Pressure Is Awakening an Energy Giant in Canada" wsj.com/business/energy-oil/…
"President Trump’s trade war and the Iran conflict have ignited Canada’s ambition to diversify its energy exports."
C retweeted
I mean this has always been the deal. It’s literally how the U.S. sold the MoU in June.
Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief & release frozen funds for “concrete progress” on a nuclear deal, a US official tells me & @KristenhCNN , as mediators try to bring both countries back to the negotiating table
The official says Iran has indicated they are flexible on nuclear issues — but both sides have not reached an agreement on the timing of the commitments cnn.com/2026/09/28/politics/…
C retweeted
To those who keep telling me that interest rates are just back to the long term normal, I agree but as it comes after 15 years of abnormal, therein lies the problem for those whose debt is coming due this year and next that was priced prior to 2022. The refi options are where the rate shock is. Just imagine the real estate operator who priced a 3% loan five years ago and is repricing at 8% this year, an ongoing adjustment seen over the past few years for those whose debt came due. We’ve of course seen the damage done to household mobility as many stick to their 3-4% mortgage rate and choose not to move. Or that SPAC and/or LBO in 2021 whose time has come to refi. Also, it is the rate of change and trajectory of the rate move that is the focus right now too, not only the absolute level.
The below. Also, as noted Iran can escalate and may be doing calculated strikes on shipping. And fundamentally, having a third of US navy warships escorting tankers out is not sustainable. Is US going to be doing this in 2 years, 5 years? Iran has a different timeline.
Someone sent me this analysis and asked me what I think…
Yes, there is more oil flowing through the strait—with the exception of Iranian oil. But people misunderstand the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz and overstate its importance in the positioning of Iran, the Gulf, and the U.S. as the war drags on. Specifically, this analysis on oil export volumes and its impact on negotiation positions overlooks two more important factors.
First, Iran may not be able to disrupt energy flows as effectively as in the early stage of the war, but it retains undiminished capabilities to destroy stocks, by which I mean the underlying production infrastructure, whether upstream or downstream.
Second, the assessment fails to consider that Iran can still choose to escalate by hitting these production targets if it determines that Trump isn’t feeling enough pain to take the diplomatic off-ramps being put in front of him. Importantly, we know what happens when Iran is exporting no oil and there is no realistic pathway for diplomacy—we saw it in the Abqaiq and Khurrais attacks on Aramco facilities in 2019.
So while the risk premium around oil flows may seem tolerable for Trump, the threats to energy production infrastructure the Gulf remain significant, which is exactly why regional countries are still trying to mediate a return to a durable ceasefire and diplomatic agreement. Trump too, is erratic, and could give cause to Iran to escalate in this way through his own fixation on “winning” the war. Markets are able to price this, especially not when traders are so fixated on short-term price action.
In this respect, the strait isn’t really Iran’s principle source of leverage. It never was! The attacks on U.S. bases and Gulf cities and infrastructure were far more consequential, but these dimensions of the conflict were downplayed because of what it would mean to acknowledge that Iran has such dangerous capabilities that the U.S. was unable to mitigate or degrade during the entirety of the fighting.
Sure, the U.S. navy can escort vessels (at great cost) and keep oil flowing. But the more fundamental issue of the failure of U.S. security guarantees over the entirety of the Gulf remains unresolved, and this is what provides Iran leverage in the negotiations.
Iran did not wage a scorched earth campaign—but it may yet do so if the current situation persists for too long. That is what everyone who actually follows this region and its dynamics is worried about.
C retweeted
Dallas Fed respondents - uniform negativity:
Tariffs and fuel prices are affecting incoming and outgoing products/costs. Customers have hit the limit on what they can pay. We are getting pushback and cancellations (Beverage and tobacco product manufacturing)
Fuel costs (diesel, in particular) are adversely impacting our bottom line and that of our customers. We'd welcome a quicker resolution to the conflict with Iran as we believe that could potentially provide more favorable outcomes, improved margins and stability in interest rates. Insurance rates continue to increase in cost with a decrease in coverage. Overall, however, we continue to expand operations with an ever-increasing backlog that will provide a record year of revenue and net income for our enterprise in 2026 (Machinery manufacturing)
We are now facing increased difficulty obtaining raw materials domestically. Items that were readily available now take long lead times or are not available in the same specifications we have historically purchased (Miscellaneous manufacturing)
The price of diesel fuel is hurting our gross margin. We are unable to pass this through to our customers. We are bidding new jobs using $6.00 [per gallon] for diesel cost (Nonmetallic mineral product manufacturing)
Broadly speaking, very little to no manufacturing growth exists as pricing is being driven down by Asian and Chinese suppliers. AI and heavy transportation are growing. Other sectors are weak (Plastics and rubber products manufacturing)
Our business has been able to maintain its volume, primarily because several competitors have experienced significant difficulties, including the largest producer in our industry announcing the closure of two plants, one of which is relatively close to us in Louisiana. Our primary concern going forward is the outcome of the U.S.-Mexico trade negotiations. There are significant flows of foreign aluminum into Mexico, including from countries with substantial non-market production and subsidization including Russia and China at prices far below U.S. prices. We are concerned that reduction in tariffs on Mexican aluminum products will give these non-market economies a significantly advantaged conduit into our domestic markets. Rules of Origin policies sound good in theory but experience shows that this relies on the honesty of those doing the reporting. PROSECs (Program for Sectoral Promotion) are also problematic in giving Mexican companies the ability to use these same foreign-supplied raw materials in downstream products. For U.S. aluminum producers, the issue isn't simply the tariff rate applied to Mexico. It is making sure that Mexico does not become a lower-tariff pathway for heavily subsidized aluminum produced in Russia, China or elsewhere in Asia to reach the U.S. market. (Primary metal manufacturing)
Incoming orders have really slowed down, and now that we are finishing up on some large projects that have kept us very busy since mid-spring, things are slowing down. We have to believe it's due to the uncertainty around the chaos out of Washington, D.C. and lack of a clear path forward. Add to this the higher cost of living and rising fuel costs, especially for diesel that affects all modes of shipping, it seems to be a logical reason for slower levels of activity amongst our customers (Printing and related support activities)
High interest and energy costs are a double hit. We can’t do any planning (Transportation equipment manufacturing)
C retweeted
BREAKING: As of this morning, the U.S. bond yields on the 10-year and the 30-year have reached new Iran War highs.
The U.S. 30-year has reached a new peak of 5.548%, up from 4.630% on the day before the Iran War began. A 19.83% increase in relative yield, up 91.8 basis points.
The U.S. 10-year has also reached a new peak of 5.234%, up from 3.96% on the day before the Iran War began. A 32.2% increase in relative yield, up 127.4 basis points.
This. War. Is. Not. SUSTAINABLE.
C retweeted
NEW: Despite American claims that 351 trillion barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 45 seconds, the reality is that Brent is trading at $108/barrel. Murban is trading at its highest level since March at $121. Diesel? All time highs. Gasoline? Labor Day highs.
NONE of this is REMOTELY sustainable.