Did Inspect AI just make the best bitcoin indicator? Simply evaluating ACTIVE supply in profit for bitcoin, rather than total supply: above ~8.7 million active coins in profit = potential top below 1 million active coins in profit = potential bottom 🤯

Yet another sign that Bitcoin is gaining back momentum.

Bitcoin moved from $58K to nearly $80K while a lot of people kept waiting for $50K or $40K. Near the lows: • Median MVRV was flashing • Whale accumulation was strong • Long-term holders were under real stress • Reserve Risk was extremely low The bottom never had to look exactly like 2022. Full breakdown: youtu.be/P9BML1lyEhE

Crazy value if you're not following either of these two!

Long-term holder supply in loss just spiked above the 2022 bear market bottom. For a moment, more LTHs were underwater than at the actual bottom of the last cycle. We've since reclaimed the 200 week MA, but there is still overhead resistance to face at the STH Cost basis @$67,000 Here's the full onchain picture this week🧵👇 youtu.be/HBOjjzf2aLA

Bitcoin just hit $79,000. The short-term holder cost basis sits at $79,277, and we already got rejected on the first pass. Every prior bear market rally has been rejected at this level: 2018: rejected at $11K, $8K, $6.5K → bottomed at $3.2K 2022: rejected at $48K, $25K, $21K → bottomed at $16K Jan 2026: rejected at $98K → dropped to $60K The next 2-4 weeks tell us if it's different this time 👇 New video breaking it down: youtu.be/ziGXoscnDfU

5 things people keep saying about Bitcoin right now that the on-chain data disagrees with: "LTH are accumulating, bullish" - They took 6.19M BTC in profit at the top. Wealth concentration rising = everyone else leaving. "This cycle is different" - 97% of momentum signals are bearish. Same pattern as 2018/2022. "It's digital gold" - Down 47% in 5 months. Bitcoin has always been this volatile. That's the deal. "$100K by year end" - 9 out of 9 oscillators at annual lows. "The bottom is in" - LTH MVRV still at 1.52. Realized cap drawdown at 3.7% vs 14-23% at prior bottoms. Full breakdown:

There's a bearish divergence forming in Bitcoin's on-chain data that most people are missing. Price is making higher lows. But LTH MVRV is making lower lows. Why? Cycle-top buyers are aging into the long-term holder cohort, silently dragging profitability down even as price holds. 9 out of 9 on-chain oscillators are in the bottom 10% of their annual range. We're 173 days in, 45% of the way through. Full breakdown + new research article 👇

Ethereum current supply in profit and loss has shown a convergence for ~1 month. Typically, this has resulted in a LOCAL low for ETH. The market is showing signs of volatility as we see this tightening range. Bullish, or simply a test run before the next move down? Check out the chart here: chartinspect.com/charts/eth-… @chartinspect

45% of all long-term held Ethereum is underwater. For Bitcoin, it's 27%. I built on-chain analytics for ETH, ADA, LTC, DOGE, and LINK, and the data is telling a fascinating story. New video breaking it all down 👇

Bitcoin On-chain Update: 26% of long-term holder supply is now underwater. Historically, this metric peaks above 40% at cycle bottoms. We're getting there but not yet. Meanwhile, 88% of short-term holder coins are at a loss. Quick video explaining what this means and what to watch for 👇 chartinspect.com/charts/lth-…

Bitcoin just rallied 10% in a day. But the STH cost basis at $87K has acted as resistance in every prior bear market. Short-term holders are still moving coins out at -9.9K BTC/day (30d EMA). Composite momentum is 97% bearish. New video on what I'm watching for and what actually ends a bear market 👇 chartinspect.com

Bitcoin's on-chain data says we're not at the bottom yet - close, but not there. In this video, I walk through 4 on-chain charts that show exactly where we are in the cycle and a new tool I built to take the emotion out of buying 👇