Senior Lecturer in Politics @rhulpir | Co-Investigator @BESResearch | Election number-crunching for @itvnews
Joined May 2009
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New from me in @WEPsocial (open access):
Fragmentation revisited: the UK General Election of 2024
4,000 words on the who, what, where, why of the 2024 UK General Election - the most fragmented election in British democratic history.
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
If you're interested in doing a PhD in something to do with elections, political psychology, public opinion, or anything to do with British politics (or know someone else who is), then get in touch - we have an open funding competition at the moment!
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New from @olhe, me, Humphrey Southall and Paula Aucott (@gbhgis ) in @po_qu:
The 2024 General Election and the Rise of Reform UK onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
Unsurprisingly then, the relationship between Reform performance and Conservative performance in 2024 is pretty obvious - in the places where Reform did the best, the Conservative vote went down a lot!
All this and more - open access, so free to read - here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
Chris Prosser retweeted
New paper w/ @caprosser at @apsrjournal. A recent paper claim rising mass polarization in US is actually declining survey cooperation rates (only diehard partisans responding). We show evidence that this actually results from overly strong regularization
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Chris Prosser retweeted
Just published on APSR First View: "Regularized Regression Can Reintroduce Backdoor Confounding: The Case of Mass Polarization" by Jonathan Mellon (@jon_mellon) and Christopher Prosser (@caprosser). cambridge.org/core/journals/…
New from @jon_mellon and me in @apsrjournal looking at the impact that regularization (e.g. Ridge regression, LASSO etc) can have on adjusting for confounders, with particular application to claims about the effect of survey non-response on estimates of polarization.
Thread⬇️
#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal -
Regularized Regression Can Reintroduce Backdoor Confounding: The Case of Mass Polarization - cup.org/3UuXGmE
- @jon_mellon & @caprosser
#FirstView
We argue that a recent claims that survey non-response has inflated estimates of mass polarization (cambridge.org/core/journals/…) are driven by the use of ridge regression.
See this thread from @jon_mellon xitter.cf/jon_mellon/status/1851…
New paper w/ @caprosser at @apsrjournal. A recent paper claim rising mass polarization in US is actually declining survey cooperation rates (only diehard partisans responding). We show evidence that this actually results from overly strong regularization
cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Along the way we touch things of wider relevance to social scientists like the equivalence of informative priors and different types of regularization, and the utility of simulation as part of our workflows.
Check it out ⬇️⬇️⬇️ cambridge.org/core/journals/…
Chris Prosser retweeted
Looking forward to chairing this evening's round table on Populism and the British and European Elections of 2024 at @RoyalHolloway. Panellists: @sarahobolt @MiriamSorace @caprosser, cc: @rhulpirp @EESresearch royalholloway.ac.uk/research…
Grant me the confidence of the peer reviewer who doesn’t know what a marginal effect is but thinks they’re qualified to offer statistical advice.
Six weeks, 4 @BESResearch surveys, ~ 24,000+ words of R code, many meetings & rehearsals, 4(+) viruses caught from my kids, 19 straight hours of exit polling and forecasting for ITV, and one new addition to my election mug collection later, I’m heading to Dorset for a week off!
