Coffee, Deep Research, SAAS
Joined September 2022
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Techno Capital retweeted
A lot of questions this week on funding, so here's how a GPU typically gets funded at $IREN.
First, the customer signs a multi-year take-or-pay contract and agrees to a prepayment. On our recent 3-year contracts, prepayments have been 45% to 55% of the associated GPU capex.
Second, financing is committed, secured by the contracted GPUs. On the Microsoft contract we secured an A-rated facility at around 6%, which together with prepayments covers 96% of GPU capex. More recently, for a non-investment grade counterparty at Mackenzie, we secured financing at 9% fixed, which together with prepayments covers more than the full cost of the GPUs.
That's the GPU side. The data centers are a separate, long-term asset base, and we own the ones our GPUs run in. Construction has been funded from cash to date, with no debt against these multi-billion dollar assets. As they come online with contracted customers, they can support financing in their own right.
The processes behind the next facilities are continuing, and new paper will cost what the market charges. With GPU paybacks of around two years on our recent 3-year contracts, a wider spread barely moves the economics.
There's more customer demand than we can build for. As we noted at our recent earnings, 2026 is largely sold out, recent 3-year contracts are at more than double the prior year's pricing, and demand for anything we can bring online in 2027 covers it several times over, with prepayments a focus in every negotiation. Conversations on 2028 capacity are already underway.
Meanwhile announced capacity keeps slipping across the industry, which is the point: signing deals isn't the bottleneck in this market, bringing GPUs online is, and that's our focus.
Techno Capital retweeted
$IREN is the only public neocloud I’m aware of that can finance its operations through its data centers given it owns the full stack, unlike most of the neoclouds including $NBIS and $CRWV.
Musk FUDing the sector just shows how the space narrative will not work in the near future. Earth FIRST!
🚨JUST IN: $IREN and Wingspire Equipment Finance Complete $363MM Financing for High-Density AI Compute
Techno Capital retweeted
🚨JUST IN: $GOOGL CFO
"We started utilizing third-party compute capacity at the end of Q3, and will ramp usage in Q4."
Musk can’t stop the neocloud rally🧐
Techno Capital retweeted
The market is RED, but don't sleep on these PHOTONICS stocks.
The AI buildout isn't going away just because stocks are falling. One of the biggest challenges ahead is moving enormous amounts of data between GPUs at higher speeds while consuming less power.
Here are 21 stocks across the 7 layers of photonics worth watching:
1. Materials & Wafers:
$AXTI $LWLG $WOLF
2. Tools:
$LRCX $AMAT $ONTO
3. Lasers:
$SIVE $MTSI $LASR
4. Foundries:
$TSEM $UMC $GFS
5. Testing:
$AEHR $COHU $TER
6. Optics:
$LITE $AAOI $POET
7. Networking:
$CRDO $MRVL $ANET
2027 is shaping up to be a MONSTER year for photonics. The companies helping AI data centers move data faster and more efficiently will be at the center of this transformation.
Which of these stocks are you buying on this dip?
Techno Capital retweeted
Big news for $IREN bulls! 🔥
IREN just highlighted how its multi year partnership with Perplexity will support one of the fastest growing AI platforms.
Perplexity will run workloads on NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPUs at an IREN data center, powering the models and agents behind Perplexity Computer.
Perplexity handles more than 1.5 BILLION questions every month and serves over 50,000 organizations daily.
This is another strong validation of IREN's growing role in the AI infrastructure ecosystem.
And this is exactly why I remain extremely bullish on $IREN!
Perplexity is working with IREN to power fast, trustworthy AI.
Under our multi-year agreement, @perplexity_ai will run workloads on NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra GPUs at an IREN data center campus, supporting the models and agents behind Perplexity Computer.
More than 50,000 organizations use Perplexity every day, asking more than 1.5 billion questions a month. IREN AI Cloud delivers the capacity and consistent performance to power AI workloads at scale.
Learn more: iren.com/resources/blog/perp…
Techno Capital retweeted
$SPCX is building the entire AI stack.
1. Chips: Terafab (in development)
2. Infrastructure: Colossus I & II
3. Foundation Models: Grok
4. Applications: Grok, X & Cursor
5. Connectivity: Starlink
Most AI companies control only part of the stack.
SpaceX is working to control it from chips and computing power to AI models, applications, and global connectivity.
The more layers you control, the stronger your competitive advantage.
Techno Capital retweeted
Expert on neoclouds:
"At the moment, both Meta and SpaceX are already denting demand for neoclouds and AI-infrastructure providers, because we're getting bare-metal contracts from Anthropic, Google, and other frontier labs — all contracts that could have gone to leading neoclouds like Nebius, CoreWeave, or IREN, or to another infrastructure player, but instead are going directly to Meta and SpaceX."
$SPCX $META $NBIS $IREN $CRWV
Techno Capital retweeted
$NBIS is down 49% from its highs.
$CRWV is down 71% from its highs.
$IREN is down 69% from its highs.
If you’re selling:
• $NBIS at $154
• $CRWV at $54
• $IREN at $23
You’re panic selling. Period.
And you’re doing it right after Q3 showed:
• $GOOGL Cloud: +103% YoY
• $AMZN AWS: +39% YoY
• $MSFT Azure: +48% YoY
All three expect to significantly increase CapEx in 2027.
The disconnect between stock prices and underlying demand is absolutely insane.
AI compute demand is exploding, and the supply-demand imbalance is only getting worse.
Demand is everything.
Neoclouds will find a way to finance their expansion.
Techno Capital retweeted
Why is the stock market getting NUKED right now?
Google -12.6%, Amazon -7%, Intel -25%, Nasdaq futures down 2%+... and it's happening after these companies posted some of the best cloud growth we've EVER seen
Here's what you need to know as an investor:
1. Google missed on revenue and EPS, search growth slowed to 12%, and free cash flow came in at NEGATIVE $9.07B after $51.4B of capex in a single quarter. The stock had its worst day in 20+ years and lost about $500B in value
2. Amazon piled on last night. AWS grew 39% (fastest in nearly 5 years) and Amazon posted its highest operating margin ever... but trailing 12-month free cash flow went to NEGATIVE $42.4B, from +$14.8B a year ago. And it signaled capex goes UP again next year
3. Intel finished the job. Weak Q4 guide, a PC slump, and a warning that it'll burn cash this year. Stock -25% premarket, dragging every chip name down with it.
One thing to note from all of this:
Nobody is worried about AI DEMAND. Demand is the one thing every company confirmed. Google Cloud more than doubled, Azure grew 48%, AWS is accelerating and still can't build capacity fast enough
So to be clear, demand is NOT the issue. Any bear who's focused on demand should be muted, they are out to lunch
The fear right now is the BILL
The 4 big hyperscalers free cash flow was -$26B combined. 3 of the 4 are now spending more than their businesses bring in
So they're borrowing more and more to fill that gap. Amazon's long-term debt went from $66B to $173B in just 9 months
These companies used to be the biggest cash machines on earth, buying back their own stock. Now they're issuing bonds to keep building. THAT'S the shift the market is repricing and struggling to wrap their head around... even though FCF is expected to go positive by the end of next year, and significantly higher into 2028
But here's the ironic part. Every dollar of that capex is REVENUE for somebody else: the chip, memory and power companies building this stuff out. Yet $MU is still down ~5% this morning. The market is selling the spenders AND the companies getting paid... it makes no sense!
I'm seeing people on X call this the AI bubble popping. Once again, I don't see it. Bubbles pop when demand dries up. Here demand is accelerating and these companies are spending MORE because they can't build fast enough. What's being repriced is how long investors are willing to wait for the cash
I continue to believe these dips are for buying and we go much higher as the market realizes that this negative fcf is only short-term and the revenue is showing up in many different places from AI
This is not a bubble, this is one of the greatest investing opportunities of our lifetime and the market continues to give us gifts at these prices. Take a look at what dips I'm buying and what my real-time portfolio looks like here: link.milkroad.com/t5837z
Don't forget to give me a follow @kylereidhead for more insights on AI and markets
ALT Watchlist showing GOOGL down 12.6%, MU down 5%, AMZN down 4.3% and other AI names lower
Techno Capital retweeted
Always remember - market panics are the best times to concentrate your portfolio. These are the times you go from 15 positions to 10 or lower.
Because your top dog is selling at a discount. So you don't need your 15th best idea to be a bet in the market.
Your top 5 will carry your portfolio once the market rebounds.
Techno Capital retweeted
A great company is not always a great stock.
So I built one number to force myself to look at the whole picture.
My Opportunity Score:
-----------------------------------------
40% Quality — Is this actually a great business?
30% Trend — Are things getting better or worse?
20% Valuation — How much upside is left?
10% Implied Volatility — How much movement is the market pricing in?
The result is a score out of 100 that helps me rank opportunities and decide how much capital each deserves.
Guidelines:
-----------------------------------------
80+ → Tier 1
60–79 → Tier 2
50–59 → Tier 3
Below 50 → avoid / exit
But the part I find most useful isn’t just the final score.
It’s seeing WHY a stock scores where it does.
$AXTI, for example, is being driven by Trend.
$SKHY and $MU shine on Quality.
Others may look attractive overall but have one leg actively dragging them down. That decomposition keeps me from falling in love with a single metric.
The goal isn’t to find the “best company.”
It’s to find the best opportunity right now.
And as I see it here are the top Opportunities in the market today:
$SKHY $SITM $MU $SNDK $NBIS $KRKNF $ALAB $NVDA $ETON $AXTI $WDC $IREN $PGEN $AVGO $CLS $CRDO $STX $LITE $SIMO $BESIY $LIFE $ONTO
These two charts show exactly how I build it — and how the current 60+ names stack up.
Hope this was helpful. Would love your feedback.
Cheers!
Techno Capital retweeted
BREAKING: Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio.
Details include:
1. The guarantees from Nvidia would help OpenAI lease a 10GW project that SoftBank is developing in Ohio
2. In total, the project could cost more than $500 billion, the largest data center project ever announced
3. The power for the project is controlled by the US government and funded separately by Japan under a recent trade deal
4. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is reportedly involved in deciding who will get the power
The data center buildout just hit a whole new level.
Techno Capital retweeted
My increasingly strong opinion is that compute is the biggest moat in AI.
Scientific breakthroughs don’t stay secret for long. Papers get published, researchers move, ideas leak, open source catches up. Give it enough time and almost everyone has access to roughly the same algorithms.
What doesn’t diffuse nearly as fast is the ability to run 10x bigger training runs, collect 10x more RL experience, serve billions of inference tokens, and iterate faster because you can afford thousands of experiments in parallel.
Scaling compute is brutally hard. It’s GPUs, power, substations, networking, cooling, land, permits, supply chains… and hundreds of billions of dollars. You can’t just decide to build that overnight.
The more I look at the industry, the more it feels like the frontier is less about having one genius idea and more about who can compound compute the fastest. Scaling laws reward whoever can keep scaling. That’s a very hard moat to replicate imo!
BREAKING: Nvidia is in talks with OpenAI to guarantee $250 billion in financing for a data center in Ohio.
Details include:
1. The guarantees from Nvidia would help OpenAI lease a 10GW project that SoftBank is developing in Ohio
2. In total, the project could cost more than $500 billion, the largest data center project ever announced
3. The power for the project is controlled by the US government and funded separately by Japan under a recent trade deal
4. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is reportedly involved in deciding who will get the power
The data center buildout just hit a whole new level.
Techno Capital retweeted
Elon Musk: "By the end of this year, chip production will outpace the ability to turn chips on."
I doubt most investors understand the profundity of this statement and its implications for cloud providers like $IREN.
If chip production (hardware supply) does outpace the ability to turn chips on (hardware demand), due to power constraints, how do you think that plays out for semi margins and for the hardware expenses cloud providers carry?
The forces of supply and demand would dictate that margins compress and hardware prices come down.
That carries major implications for the broader AI industry.
For one, the earnings power of many semis could be in the process of peaking.
But the more interesting implication for investors in the likes of $IREN is that falling AI hardware costs mean a lower relative capex burden, and thus lower depreciation, leading to expanding profit margins.
My honest read on Elon's comment is that he may be early by a year or two, but I firmly believe this is the direction we're heading.
In fact, I believe we're heading into a multi-year period I've coined the "golden age of neoclouds," in which cloud margins expand as a direct result of this phenomenon.
The golden age is obviously only 'golden' for those able to take advantage of falling hardware prices, meaning those able to actually plug the chips in.
In other words, the primary beneficiaries will be the clouds that secured access to power early and can leverage it to expand their data center footprint, while competitors sit stuck at the bottleneck.
With one of the world's largest and fastest growing secured power portfolios at 5.8 GW, up nearly 3 GW in only 6 months, my money is on $IREN.
Elon Musk just named AI’s next crisis. It’s not a shortage. It’s a surplus nobody can switch on.
Musk: “By the end of this year, chip production will outpace the ability to turn chips on.”
For three years the world was starved for silicon. Every lab, every government, every company racing to secure the chips that decide who wins the AI era.
That bottleneck is ending. A harder one is replacing it.
Musk: “The chips are going to be piling up and not be able to be turned on.”
Billions of dollars in the most advanced AI hardware ever built. Sitting dark.
Not because the chips don’t work. Because there isn’t enough electricity to run them.
You can’t print a power plant the way you print a chip.
The fabs scaled. The grid didn’t. Now the hardware everyone fought over is hitting a wall capital can’t buy its way through.
Compute becomes abundant. Electricity becomes the most valuable commodity on earth.
Physics doesn’t care about your chip architecture if your data center can’t pull the megawatts.
Every mind that has ever existed was limited by what it could eat. Ours ran on grain. This one runs on the grid.
That has never been solved by thinking. Only by building.
The war isn’t about who can print the most silicon. It’s about who can plug it in.
Whoever solves energy first doesn’t just win. They own the rails everyone else has to rent.
The losers stack chips in warehouses, waiting for power that never arrives.
We built a trillion dollar engine and forgot the fuel.
Techno Capital retweeted
My increasingly strong opinion is that compute is the biggest moat in AI.
Scientific breakthroughs don’t stay secret for long. Papers get published, researchers move, ideas leak, open source catches up. Give it enough time and almost everyone has access to roughly the same algorithms.
What doesn’t diffuse nearly as fast is the ability to run 10x bigger training runs, collect 10x more RL experience, serve billions of inference tokens, and iterate faster because you can afford thousands of experiments in parallel.
Scaling compute is brutally hard. It’s GPUs, power, substations, networking, cooling, land, permits, supply chains… and hundreds of billions of dollars. You can’t just decide to build that overnight.
The more I look at the industry, the more it feels like the frontier is less about having one genius idea and more about who can compound compute the fastest. Scaling laws reward whoever can keep scaling. That’s a very hard moat to replicate imo!
Techno Capital retweeted
Hottest Sectors off the lows 🔥
Interconnect/Networking - 201%
$CRDO $ALAB
Memory/Storage - 199%
$SNDK $MU
***** My Portfolio Tier 1 and 2 - 138% *****
***** My Portfolio Tier 3 - 78% *****
NeoClouds - 96%
$NBIS $IREN $CRWV
Payments - 80%
$DAVE $SEZL
Optical/Photonics - 65%
$LITE $AAOI $AXTI
Power/Energy - 50%
$BE $GEV $VRT
Compute - 39%
$NVDA $AVGO
Software - 37%
$PLTR $APP $RDDT
Defense - 24%
$ONDS $KRKNF
S&P 500 - 20%
$SPX
