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Life update! We’ve joined Kalshi 🔥
Oddpool is joining @Kalshi.
Ritesh and I came out of @ycombinator this past spring and raised a $3M seed. Since then we've been working at the edge of institutional adoption in prediction markets, building the tooling institutions need to treat this as a real asset class.
We decided to get into prediction markets because we love free markets. They are an elegant way to aggregate important information that can come from anyone and communicate it through prices. They do it by matching buyers and sellers, and letting participants compete in an open bidding process to figure out what the price should be.
Traditional derivatives markets have enabled price discovery on key economic inputs like commodities, energy, and interest rates. Prediction markets take that a step further and aggregate prices (forecasts) for a much broader range of inputs that are economically useful and people care about, from politics and sports, to climate and culture.
Every trade is a signal and has a piece of information embedded in it. And it's a signal that is sourced from millions of participants rather than a committee. That is why Oddpool has been building the data layer to help institutions, economists, policy-makers, business owners to make sense of the data and inform decisions, whether it's to stock up inventory before a sports game or to buy more 30y treasury futures ahead of a Fed decision.
The demand for prediction market data and Oddpool are growing incredibly fast. But when we sat down with Tarek and spoke about what a world could look like if we joined forces, Ritesh and I got incredibly excited about what we could build from within the ecosystem rather than a partner from the outside. And after spending time with the team and understanding the culture, it was clear the company's hunger, passion and drive is unmatched.
We are both hyped to be working in a space we’re so passionate about, surrounded by people who are shipping and improving daily.
Now, there's data infrastructure waiting to be built. Let’s get to work!
Avi Arora retweeted
In a new episode of Prediction Market Movers, @GerlacherC sits down with @oddpool_alerts co-founder @c0delemons to cover:
- How institutional traders are approaching prediction markets
- What infrastructure is still missing for large-scale adoption
- How Oddpool is building data tools for traders and hedge funds youtube.com/watch?v=LlTgphaA…
Avi Arora retweeted
Auxos (@UseAuxos) lets marketing, product, and research teams simulate every decision at scale before it reaches a real customer. Test hypotheses on messaging, ads, pricing, and brand positioning in minutes.
Congrats on the launch, @TheAshtonDaniel, @kerry_lu_, and @jwoobers!
ycombinator.com/launches/QM1…
Avi Arora retweeted
Oddpool (@oddpool_alerts) is the institutional data layer for prediction markets. It captures every trade and order book update across every platform and normalizes them under universal tickers.
Congrats on the launch, @c0delemons & @RiteshMalpani!
ycombinator.com/launches/QKF…
Sam Altman stopped by @ycombinator today.
Here's everything he said (w/ direct quotes)
- new model coming
- electricity is the biggest bottleneck right now, not gpus
“if you try to build a company that will still be alive in 50 years you will miss”
“i think the way we currently measure things in society is going to break”
“we’re still 2.5 years from the chatgpt moment for robotics”
“at some point we are effectively going to summon aliens, and i think they will be friendly aliens”
“the better you do, the more chaos comes your way”
“people have seen robots do some pretty impressive things, but they have not seen a truly general purpose robot they can interact with and have it do useful things. that will be the chatgpt moment”
“i would bet that society figures some new grand bargain”
“society figures out for new technologies where the value chain is and who is liable where”
- society and technology coevolve in difficult to predict ways
- the models are good enough now to figure out new architectures themselves
- value accrues to the top layer with the direct relationship with the consumer
May be time for a new marketing campaign
There’s been a lot of allegations against Delve.
But we haven’t been able to share our side of the story until today due to ongoing cybersecurity and forensics investigations.
Maintaining customer trust is central to everything we do.
That said, we grew too fast and fell short of our own standard. To our customers, we deeply apologize for the inconveniences caused.
We take these allegations seriously and have made changes: a new auditor network, free re-audits and pentests for all customers, enhanced transparency in audit communications, and more.
However, we also want to set the record straight on the anonymous attacks.
The evidence we have points to a targeted cyberattack from a malicious actor, not a “whistleblower.”
We believe the attacker purchased Delve under false pretenses, exfiltrated internal company data, and used it to launch a coordinated smear campaign.
The posts rely on a mix of fabricated claims, cherry-picked screenshots, and stolen data taken out of context.
See the link in the comments for more details.
Delve was built to modernize compliance. We are not going anywhere and are committed to building what's next.
We just release our Prediction Market Dominance Index
Finally there is a single place to track volume, liquidity, turnover, open events, and much more for both @Kalshi and @Polymarket
This page that “verifies” revenue tweets may need some work 😂 @marclou
I found every Polymarket tool I could and compiled it into a single list
170 different tools spanning copy trading, telegram bots, ai agents, arbitrage, alerting and much more
Everything is organized by category for easy access
github.com/aarora4/Awesome-P…
Did I miss anything?
Braindead strategies make the most money
You can literally buy Yes @ 15.5 on Polymarket and No @ 83.0 on Kalshi that Bitcoin will go above $130,000
Total cost 98.5 ¢ per share
Guaranteed profit 0.5 ¢ per share
Keep clicking anon
This Polymarket trader turned $1.25k into $949k in profits 😳
That’s a 750x return — completely absurd.
Check his profile here 👉 polymarket.com/@gmpm
This guy made $155,000 on Polymarket by betting on how much Elon Musk would tweet.
Polymarket trader ElonSpam only trades on Musk’s posting habits — and he’s been right again and again.
He predicted Elon would tweet 400+ times in the final week of August — turning $136,000 into $229,803.
Before that, he called 470+ tweets from August 8–15 for $199,832, and 240–259 tweets from September 26–October 3 for $196,918.
His biggest single-trade profit so far is $124,000, and his total PnL sits at $155,752.
Here’s his Polymarket profile: polymarket.com/@ElonSpam
I think his most impressive trades are still ahead.
Polymarket x Google Search
Kalshi x Google Finance
Announced on the same day.
Prediction markets are the future.
Google wants a piece of the pie.
prediction markets are inefficient
profitable arbitrage opportunities every. single. day.
those 1% gains stack up quick
























