Intellia Therapeutics Investment Thesis $NTLA I typically stick to investing in technology stocks, but $NTLA caught my attention because of its groundbreaking work with CRISPR technology. I'm not a biotech expert or enthusiast, but the potential here is so compelling that I believe anyone can see the opportunity. It just makes sense. Introduction to CRISPR-Cas9 DNA is the cell’s long-term “source code.” Defects (mutations or regulatory changes) can make cells produce faulty proteins, driving disease. CRISPR-Cas9 is a programmable tool that uses a guide RNA (the address) to bring the Cas9 enzyme (the editor) to a precise DNA sequence, where Cas9 makes a cut. This disables this fault sequence and neutralizes its effects. You can think of this as making a change to production code (cure) versus applying multiple bandage patches (periodic dosing). Two ways to deploy editing: ex vivo, where cells are edited outside the body and reinfused (safer/controlled but complex and costly), and in vivo, which edits cells directly inside the patient (simpler access to organs demands highly selective delivery). Intellia Approach Intellia pioneered systemic in vivo CRISPR delivery to the liver: an IV-infused lipid nanoparticle (LNP) carrying Cas9 mRNA (temporary instructions to make the editor) plus a guide RNA (navigation) enters hepatocytes and performs the edit. This yields a durable gene knockout after a single dose (CURE)! The actual delivery mechanism is actually that relevant because Intellia is not dogmatic about delivery: beyond liver-targeted LNPs, it describes a “full-spectrum” platform exploring multiple CRISPR modalities and even LNPs for ex vivo cell engineering. Intellia’s Pipeline For accurate and more information about this I would view @GeneInvesting account. The specifics to the average investor is actually not that important. Only the data + PoS is truly what matters, there is actually no way a regular investor could have an "edge" on the clinical trials data. From ChatGPT: - NTLA-2002 (HAE, KLKB1 knockout) – Pivotal Phase 3 (HAELO): randomized 2:1, single 50 mg dose, primary endpoint = attack-rate reduction Weeks 5–28. Company guidance: complete enrollment H2 2025; potential top-line mid-2026; BLA H2 2026; potential U.S. approval H2 2027 (timelines indicative, contingent on data). Estimated PoS ≈ 70% given Phase 2’s near-elimination of attacks and direct biomarker-to-outcome linkage. -NTLA-2001 (ATTR, TTR knockout; with Regeneron) – Two pivotal Phase 3s: MAGNITUDE (ATTR-CM) and MAGNITUDE-2 (ATTRv-PN), building on deep TTR knockdown and encouraging functional trends in early data. Working timelines point to final data ~2027 for CM (approval ~2028), and potential PN approval ~2027 if surrogate/clinical endpoints align. Estimated PoS: ~70% (PN) and 60–65% (CM); weighted ≈ 65%. Market and Competitive Landscape Hereditary Angioedema (HAE). Rare (~1 in 50,000) but severe; attacks are unpredictable and can be life-threatening. Current prophylaxis - Takhzyro (lanadelumab, ~87% reduction; q2–4 weeks injections) and Orladeyo (berotralstat; daily oral; ~44% reduction)-reduces frequency but is lifelong and not fully preventive. List pricing implies Takhzyro ~$25.7k per 300 mg injection, translating to $335k/yr (q4w) to $670k/yr (q2w), while Orladeyo’s WAC is $44,484.33 per 28-day pack (~$578k/yr). All other options are very similar in pricing annually. Takhzyro generated $1.2B (2022), underscoring payer willingness to fund prophylaxis. Near-term, Intellia faces no in-clinic curative competitor and emerging orals may improve convenience but still require chronic use. ATTR Amyloidosis (TTR). A much larger opportunity: hereditary ATTRv (~50k globally; genotype-clustered) plus an aging wild-type ATTR-CM population (estimates up to ~500k worldwide; not all severe). Standard of care tafamidis (daily stabilizer) improves survival but doesn’t eliminate amyloid; franchise projected to exceed $6B annually later this decade (pricing at $268k/yr). RNAi/ASO competitors (Onpattro, Amvuttra, Eplontersen) suppress TTR chronically (these are priced even higher). Basically all options are >$250k/y. Investment Modelling This is the part that makes $NTLA stupid obvious. Assumptions: - NTLA-2002 (HAE): U.S. approval H2’27, first full commercial year 2028. - NTLA-2001 (ATTR): PN approval H2’27 (first full year 2028); CM approval H2’28 (first full year 2029). - PoS NTLA-2002 (70%), NTLA-2001 blended (65%) - Pricing at $1.5M to be very conservative - Operating Margin (55%): 85% GM, SGA 20% of revenue, and R&D 10% of revenue. If we assume by 2031 $NTLA has ramped their products and is treating 2000 patients annually (this is again conservative) we get total revenue at $3B. With 55% margins, 10x PE, and discounting back at 15% we get ~$7B. Now let's factor in PoS (65% - lower end) which means the company should be worth $4.55B TODAY. Now for fun let's look at a bull case: $2M price, Op margin at 65%, and 3000 patients annually. $6B in revenue and $3.9B in profit...🤯🤯🤯 Risks - Bad data read outs which leads to safety concerns and delayed approvals. This could deplete the company's cash balance and force them into bankruptcy. - All the other risks are minor (IP/patent landscape around CRISPR, manufacturing execution, slow adoption) To me $NTLA is a 10x opportunity in 5-6 years (with a small chance of a 20x) or a flat out 0. However, we are given the odds which are ~65% for a 10x and 35% for a 0x... who on earth wouldn't take those odds. NFA.

Can’t lie $LMND openly supporting LGBTQ+ and the Israeli government’s actions are a big red flag.

Yessirrrr

I need more money to buy $AMD

Good day to remember we are still early: $NTLA

Let’s make it easy $AMD Conservative 2026: Revenues at $50B Margins at 20% Exit multiple 40x ~$400B MC Bullish 2026: Revenues at $60B Margins at 25% Exit multiple 40x ~$600B MC

$RKLB 🚀

Just some genuine questions about $PATH. 1) Regarding their RPA product(s), why haven’t they already automated much of their own company? I see ~4000 people at the company with ~$1.5B in revenue, this doesn’t seem that “automated”. 2) Management has stated no material impact to revenue this year, when do we expect revenue to re-accelerate to 20%+? 30%+? Has management commented on this or is there any data points to refer to? 3) How is $PATH differentiated from Microsoft, ServiceNow, and n8n (open source) agent platforms? All I see management state is its AI Agents + RPA but all these platforms have that. They also mention integrations which I assume these companies are working on. What is stopping $PATH from becoming $ZM, $DBX, $DOCU, and Slack? 4) This isn’t really the same as Foundry + AIP which is data and process centric while $PATH is more just process focused. Which makes it less of an operating system compared to $PLTR The valuation is very compelling due to their low market cap, and very good balance sheet. If the revenues re-accelerate to 20%+ then this is a great opportunity. Just figuring it how likely that is to happen within 1-2 years.

$AMD is an easy buy

$AMD is about to do $50B in revenue next year with 20% margins, it’s trading at 25x on a forward basis.

Al though I think $GRAB and $HIMS are great companies with decent business models, I don't feel strongly about them as of now.

Is there any product that uses fine-tuned AI for technical analysis? Just curious

$TSM > $ASML

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Other than $HOOD there is no fintech as compelling as $NU. People underestimate that in these rapidly advancing developing countries these tech companies will be their MAG7. $MELI and $GRAB are also very compelling investments which are in the fintech space as well.

$NTLA > $ABCL

People get so excited by these biotech companies coming up with new ideas and initiating phase 1 clinical trials. They base their whole thesis off them getting approval, highlighting everything that happens once they get approval but never addressing PoS. You discount most of these "cool" biotech ideas by their own data and PoS and the returns look bleak.

AI, robotics, bitcoin, gene editing, and sustainable energy are going to change the next 10 years.

$NU is still an great growth story and still undervalued even after the run-up. Over the next 5 years, $NU will reach 200M users and ARPU a month will reach around $15. This means revenue could reach ~$36B and margins could be around ~30%. $NU should be $18-$22 today.

Biotech is un-investable. I see projections of 15-20% returns “if” they get approval for their respective drugs (analyst expectations). However, none of these biotech companies are really discounted for AI (lots of private companies doing interesting things) or gene editing companies (ability to disrupt existing players). Why would I invest in this field if the upside is limited and risk is huge. The only interesting names are in gene editing and maybe platform-type companies. I also expect $GOOGL to make big strides in this field. $NTLA $PRME