King/Queen Yes Hit ✅
Rambo Yes Hit ✅
Country Music Hit ✅
Was not expecting the pre-ceremony to count towards my strikes, but I'm rather confident that King/Queen and Country music would have hit regardless during the Honors.
Onto the next.
Trump hosts Kennedy Center Honors Dec 23 – first president EVER to emcee. A Mention's Market Analysis.
Quick format recap from last 5 years:
Host role is tiny – 2-9 min total speaking, opener (30 sec–5 min) → sometimes a song → quick collective nominee shoutout → tribute blocks.
Most hosts have done over 80% of their job after the introduction and briefly introducing the 5 nominees.
However, Trump may have more of a presence than the traditional host, he picked most of the honorees himself “claiming to be heavily involved), and wants “tremendous ratings”. We can expect way more stage time than previous hosts such as Letterman (9 min max), or Queen Latifah (6 min). Realistic ceiling still ~15-20 min total, but he’ll stretch every transition he can.
Best edges I see right now:
“King”/“Queen” YES – (Looking for +-50¢), George Strait is universally “King of Country.” Trump already used "King" that when announcing the list. Even Gloria Estefan (who spoke <2 min total in 2023) used titles like “king of comedy” for Billy Crystal. Trump repeats nicknames obsessively → 65-70¢ fair value all day.
“Rambo” YES – (Looking for +-35¢). I believe that this is unlikely to occur when introducing the nominees due to the brief nature of the introductions, this would involve Trump giving an introduction to Sly Stallone's tribute, similar to 2024 host Queen Latifah introducing Kamasi Washington. Sly Stallone is Trump’s closest buddy out of the five nominees, (called him “second George Washington,” Mar-a-Lago regular, Hollywood ambassador pick). Trump loves Rocky/Rambo and will likely get extra time on him. The reason I think this bet is only attractive at lower prices is due to the path dependency of the thesis, we are first betting on Trump giving extra time to Sly/Introducing his tribute act, and then we are still taking the risk that he does not say Rambo.
Other probable spots for words: (I am not taking these bets, but worth more research/considering if you are trying to build bets).
Opener (3-6 min): “beautiful” venue, “fixed this woke mess,” agenda spin
Transitions: he’ll want to “present” at least 1-2 tributes himself
Closing: victory-lap ratings brag.
I think we should avoid “No” bets because we have zero precedent for a president hosting + hand-picking honorees + openly chasing TV ratings, there is a lot in this event left to variance, making it hard to incorporate vibes vs mention markets like rallies or speeches which we have seen many times before.
TLDR: King/Queen YES under 60¢, Rambo YES under 40¢, Expensive No Strikes (Over 40 cents) is too uncertain until we see how much rope the producers give him.
If you enjoy this kind of content, or have any feedback please let me know. I've been rather quiet recently on twitter because I am focused on how I can become a better PM trader, and actually add value to this space rather than come in and spam posts. DM's and Comments are always open to discuss ideas.
Forget to mention in this tweet that this event is rather interesting because the Honors are today, but they only air on the 23rd. I doubt much can be said post recording to change odds (he isn't gonna specify exact words he used most likely), but makes for an interesting market. Still keeping my bids, just lower size since will have to hold for 2 weeks.
Trump hosts Kennedy Center Honors Dec 23 – first president EVER to emcee. A Mention's Market Analysis.
Quick format recap from last 5 years:
Host role is tiny – 2-9 min total speaking, opener (30 sec–5 min) → sometimes a song → quick collective nominee shoutout → tribute blocks.
Most hosts have done over 80% of their job after the introduction and briefly introducing the 5 nominees.
However, Trump may have more of a presence than the traditional host, he picked most of the honorees himself “claiming to be heavily involved), and wants “tremendous ratings”. We can expect way more stage time than previous hosts such as Letterman (9 min max), or Queen Latifah (6 min). Realistic ceiling still ~15-20 min total, but he’ll stretch every transition he can.
Best edges I see right now:
“King”/“Queen” YES – (Looking for +-50¢), George Strait is universally “King of Country.” Trump already used "King" that when announcing the list. Even Gloria Estefan (who spoke <2 min total in 2023) used titles like “king of comedy” for Billy Crystal. Trump repeats nicknames obsessively → 65-70¢ fair value all day.
“Rambo” YES – (Looking for +-35¢). I believe that this is unlikely to occur when introducing the nominees due to the brief nature of the introductions, this would involve Trump giving an introduction to Sly Stallone's tribute, similar to 2024 host Queen Latifah introducing Kamasi Washington. Sly Stallone is Trump’s closest buddy out of the five nominees, (called him “second George Washington,” Mar-a-Lago regular, Hollywood ambassador pick). Trump loves Rocky/Rambo and will likely get extra time on him. The reason I think this bet is only attractive at lower prices is due to the path dependency of the thesis, we are first betting on Trump giving extra time to Sly/Introducing his tribute act, and then we are still taking the risk that he does not say Rambo.
Other probable spots for words: (I am not taking these bets, but worth more research/considering if you are trying to build bets).
Opener (3-6 min): “beautiful” venue, “fixed this woke mess,” agenda spin
Transitions: he’ll want to “present” at least 1-2 tributes himself
Closing: victory-lap ratings brag.
I think we should avoid “No” bets because we have zero precedent for a president hosting + hand-picking honorees + openly chasing TV ratings, there is a lot in this event left to variance, making it hard to incorporate vibes vs mention markets like rallies or speeches which we have seen many times before.
TLDR: King/Queen YES under 60¢, Rambo YES under 40¢, Expensive No Strikes (Over 40 cents) is too uncertain until we see how much rope the producers give him.
If you enjoy this kind of content, or have any feedback please let me know. I've been rather quiet recently on twitter because I am focused on how I can become a better PM trader, and actually add value to this space rather than come in and spam posts. DM's and Comments are always open to discuss ideas.
Trump hosts Kennedy Center Honors Dec 23 – first president EVER to emcee. A Mention's Market Analysis.
Quick format recap from last 5 years:
Host role is tiny – 2-9 min total speaking, opener (30 sec–5 min) → sometimes a song → quick collective nominee shoutout → tribute blocks.
Most hosts have done over 80% of their job after the introduction and briefly introducing the 5 nominees.
However, Trump may have more of a presence than the traditional host, he picked most of the honorees himself “claiming to be heavily involved), and wants “tremendous ratings”. We can expect way more stage time than previous hosts such as Letterman (9 min max), or Queen Latifah (6 min). Realistic ceiling still ~15-20 min total, but he’ll stretch every transition he can.
Best edges I see right now:
“King”/“Queen” YES – (Looking for +-50¢), George Strait is universally “King of Country.” Trump already used "King" that when announcing the list. Even Gloria Estefan (who spoke <2 min total in 2023) used titles like “king of comedy” for Billy Crystal. Trump repeats nicknames obsessively → 65-70¢ fair value all day.
“Rambo” YES – (Looking for +-35¢). I believe that this is unlikely to occur when introducing the nominees due to the brief nature of the introductions, this would involve Trump giving an introduction to Sly Stallone's tribute, similar to 2024 host Queen Latifah introducing Kamasi Washington. Sly Stallone is Trump’s closest buddy out of the five nominees, (called him “second George Washington,” Mar-a-Lago regular, Hollywood ambassador pick). Trump loves Rocky/Rambo and will likely get extra time on him. The reason I think this bet is only attractive at lower prices is due to the path dependency of the thesis, we are first betting on Trump giving extra time to Sly/Introducing his tribute act, and then we are still taking the risk that he does not say Rambo.
Other probable spots for words: (I am not taking these bets, but worth more research/considering if you are trying to build bets).
Opener (3-6 min): “beautiful” venue, “fixed this woke mess,” agenda spin
Transitions: he’ll want to “present” at least 1-2 tributes himself
Closing: victory-lap ratings brag.
I think we should avoid “No” bets because we have zero precedent for a president hosting + hand-picking honorees + openly chasing TV ratings, there is a lot in this event left to variance, making it hard to incorporate vibes vs mention markets like rallies or speeches which we have seen many times before.
TLDR: King/Queen YES under 60¢, Rambo YES under 40¢, Expensive No Strikes (Over 40 cents) is too uncertain until we see how much rope the producers give him.
If you enjoy this kind of content, or have any feedback please let me know. I've been rather quiet recently on twitter because I am focused on how I can become a better PM trader, and actually add value to this space rather than come in and spam posts. DM's and Comments are always open to discuss ideas.
The traders making money on memecoins will do anything to keep you out of trying other things and allocating your resources (most importantly money) intro trading memecoins. Anybody trading memecoins is getting strategically extracted by large groups who are playing you (not that this doesn't happen on prediction markets either)
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polymarket.com/event/what-wi…
YES Strikes like Don't Die (I like this one less), Trip balls, Goth Girl, Blood Boy, and Polymarket are +EV here imo. A lot of panic on the mention market because he is right now chilling in his bed, but they already mentioned they will go through memes, we are only 20%+- into the trip, and the stream will go on for over an hour post-trip, yes strikes are strongly mispriced.
Axew retweeted
Robinhood is introducing a new futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, deepening our investment in Prediction Markets and better positioning us to deliver innovative products to our customers.
More in our newsroom: rbnhd.co/prediction-markets-…
Resulting, a cognitive bias that plagues Polymarket and the meta of posting about people with huge PnL's/wins. Weeks ago, this man was a genius, now he is a retard.
Why? Because first he was winning, now he is losing. If we judge somebody by their results, and not by their process, we are merely guessing if they know what they are doing. As time goes on/more trades are taken you can get a better look of if somebody has a good process.
However somebody winning, 5-6 trades in a row, having a good 2-week period, this can all be attributed to variance. Good moment to question your process, are you resulting? Do you understand why the bets you take work, or are you gonna fall victim to variance as well?
This sports trader from India roundtripped $4m profits in just 1 week on Polymarket🤯
is CT really jinxed or was he just revenge trading?
check his profile here - polymarket.com/@Mayuravarma?…
Posting about perps because I think there is decent opportunity here RR wise,
Look for entries on the LTF, if you have balls like me just long and know where to put stops.
We need a stronger weekly close to remain bullish, thats the window. There are trades around this imo.
🚨Google Gemini 3.0 To Launch by Nov 18 Markets Drops -30% from 95% to 60% from Cloudfare Outage🚨
Mass panic among investors as insider wallets exit their positions and people expect a 1 or 2 day delay ⏰.
However, price swiftly rebounded back to 80% 📈, already reversing a decent amount of that aggressive move down, dip buyers win again 🔥.
Track this market here 👇
polymarket.com/event/what-da…
This is genuinely one of the largest concerns for long term BTC holders next to quantum computers.
cia.gov/resources/csi/static…
CIA Book Published in 1999 for novice intelligence analysts, now public for all to read.
An interesting read, good for traders of all markets and even better for people who wanna bet on polymarket. Interesting take on how to battle biases/that we must accept that we see things through a narrow scope to some degree rather than constantly try to circumvent this fact, learning to live with doubt and uncertainty.
First Trade Since my Big Mistake. Taking things controlled with Risk Management, Sizing. If I can find an edge/see positive growth in my PnL over a period such as a month, I can then size up more comfortably.
Gemini 3.0 Release Before Nov 30
I was pointed in the direction of this trade through the wallets I track seeming to all buy in, the next step was current events. Claims have been made that it has been spotted early in Gemini Enterprise, Google has confirmed they plan to release this year.
The gameplan here is size accordingly, figure out the picture of the news and then borrow some confidence from profitable wallets (Don't put too much weight on either/or, if you think you have an idea that nobody is on, truly consider if you are really cooking, and if you think profitable wallets are on to nothing, also reconsider).
Slowly but surely i'm figuring things out. Betting on polymarket requires different frameworks in trade management, risk management and capital allocation than perps markets. Through engaging in discords/telegram, tracking profitable traders wallets and asking questions.
I am exponentially learning more and more on how to express bets, examples of where positive expectancy was found. I may have taken a nice loss today, but all I know is I am waking up tomorrow, doing my daily recap of the markets, making my game plan for market research, (then boring perps stuff), and gonna make sure no matter what I learn even more tomorrow.
Lets get it -Axew
My biggest loss in Polymarket as a beginner, how I fed those smarter than me through impulsivity.
After making some decent money betting on the gov shutdown to end nov 13 (Thesis basis the technicality that in the end played out the trade) I was chilling on the @betmoardotfun news terminal. When I saw this piece of news come up: $MSTR - ARKHAM: SAYLOR’S STRATEGY CUTS BITCOIN HOLDINGS BY 47K
Your brain has a system that thinks fast, and a system that thinks slower. I let my fast thinking take control, immediately seeing the YES as low as 5 cents I pounced, aggresively clicking the buy button and without even realizing got filled for a near $1.2k USD.
Once that impulsive feeling of excitement and retardation wears off, I'm left realizing nobody is following my bid, It was walter bloomberg (Known to post misinformation/engagement bait) and not verified by Microstrategy but just Arkham Intelligence (Engagement Bait platform).
As a newbie to news trading, I was (am) a tourist, and got scammed. Next time around I am going to definitley get my dogs in a row before bidding, and size accordingly, I slammed the bid like a monkey and ended up being filled for more than I was comfortable with.
We come back stronger, and we come back better.
Lets fucking get it -Axew
