Cycle risk is investment risk. We partner with clients to anticipate turning points before their competition. ⬇ Find out about working with ECRI. ⬇
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Tariffs, tight labor markets, tax cuts – feels like 2018 all over again.
But before drawing conclusions about inflation in 2025, remember: cyclical forces often trump policy expectations.
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Will Trump's economic policies push inflation higher in 2025?
Fear of tariffs, tax cuts, and deportations fueling price pressures are widespread -- but history reminds us the obvious answer isn't always right.
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Will cyclical forces amplify inflation pressures in 2025?
Our latest Column explores key inflation cycle insights.
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"U.S. remains exceptional going into this year, Eurozone still languishing, and China still struggling."
For 2025 outlook, watch Lakshman Achuthan's interview with @tomkeene and @dsassower on @bsurveillance.
youtube.com/watch?v=sEWjgcVM…
Watch @bsurveillance today at 7:40AM EST.
ECRI's Achuthan will be joining @tomkeene and @dsassower for a cycles-centered look ahead.
youtube.com/watch?v=f39oHo6v…
As job growth tempers in less cyclical sectors, the resilience of cyclical jobs is evident as the economy remains robust.
Explore more insights: youtube.com/channel/UC4idETj…
Stay ahead of today's story - "ISM shows economy resilient."
Don’t miss the full story — follow ECRI on YouTube for videos and LinkedIn for deeper discussions.
YT: youtu.be/MpDb75-5UT0
LI: bit.ly/3uXjVYC
Industrial Production (IP) is a key indicator, reflecting manufacturing activity at both global and country-specific levels.
The real challenge? Anticipating when IP growth will change direction.
Many rely on PMIs for guidance, but there’s a better way.
bit.ly/40fkA4N
Anticipating a turning point allows our partners to act proactively on financial, operational, supply and inventory management, alongside marketing and workforce strategy.
Learn how ECRI helps you get ahead of the curve: bit.ly/40fkA4N
You know what to do in different market environments. But the real edge comes from knowing when to act.
At ECRI we've developed a repeatable process to anticipate turning points in industrial production with exceptional accuracy.
Stay ahead here: bit.ly/40hdMUl
Economic Cycles & Competitive Advantage
Check out our new video series tailored for decision-makers.
Explore the tools you need for an edge in today’s dynamic economy.
Start here: youtu.be/khmf47f6wUc
Retail sales growth has hit a 33-month high, with consumer spending continuing its upward trend — as we anticipated.
Get the full story here: bit.ly/3BMVfpm
U.S. IP miss in line with global industrial growth downturn call.
Evidence of the two-speed economy.
The global industrial downturn is here. What’s next for the economy?
The Column breaks it down.
Read: bit.ly/3Zj6EXf
Watch: bit.ly/3OczTVc
In 2025 we see volatility, but not for the obvious reasons.
1. Global industrial growth outlook
2. Inflation outlook
Watch for details:
youtu.be/s594-Uv3Sg8?t=3670
Watch @bsurveillancetoday at 8:00AM EST.
ECRI's Achuthan will be joining @tomkeene and @ptsweeney for a cycles-centered look ahead.
youtube.com/watch?v=f39oHo6v…
For months, we've emphasized the crucial role of the resilient consumer.
Today we share an update.
More ECRInsights here: youtube.com/@EconomicCycleRe…
Make no mistake – regardless of the policy choices made in coming months – a manufacturing revival, when it happens, will have profound implications across key areas, from commodity prices and Fed policy to overall economic momentum.
youtube.com/@EconomicCycleRe…
Despite this months uptick, with nearly eighty thousand job losses, manufacturing employment its facing a steep contraction.
The manufacturing slump aligns with the global industrial growth downturn that we predicted early this year.
Full story here: youtube.com/watch?v=GZrRuaC_…
